6808 support, then 6787. Resistance is at 6835, 6855, 6895

Good morning. Well had the dip from 6806 yesterday that turned into a bit of a rout for a little while, hitting a low of 6732 before staging a great come back and hitting the 6818 resistance level at the bell. Then another little dip and then a rise which I think will last for a little while today, and probably see 6860, maybe even 6900. Overnight saw yesterdays other resistance level hit and get a reaction, at 6830. As mentioned yesterday, it was a key area for the bulls yesterday and they had to climb, though the bears gave them a bloody nose at the start. The drop down was mostly caused by a lot of rhetoric between Russia and the West over Ukraine, hence the overreaction. Still, at least it meant that the plan we had for gold yesterday worked a treat, rising from the 1322 to 1332 by midday.

If we do rise today then we should get back to comfortably within the various daily channels – especially the 20 day Bianca at 6816.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks fell, paring the regional benchmark’s first monthly advance since October, after the yuan posted its steepest one-day loss against the dollar.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index lost 1 percent, set for a third monthly slide amid speculation a weaker currency will curb earnings. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slid 0.8 percent, erasing gains of as much as 0.8 percent, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 0.3 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2 percent to 137.66 as of 12:05 p.m. in Hong Kong after rising as much as 0.2 percent. The measure gained 0.2 percent this week. The yuan fell as much as 0.9 percent to 6.1808 per dollar, the biggest intraday drop based on data going back to 2007.

“Investors are very jittery about China’s economic outlook,” Shane Oliver, the Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney, which oversees $131 billion, said by phone. “Anything that contributes to uncertainty, whether it’s the currency or money-market rates, just creates a lot of nervousness.”

The yuan has gone from being the most attractive carry-trade bet in emerging markets to the worst in the space of two months as the People’s Bank of China’s efforts to weaken the currency cause volatility to surge. The central bank is forecast to double the yuan’s trading band in the coming quarter as policy makers loosen exchange-rate controls to promote greater usage of the currency in global trade and finance. The National People’s Congress annual gathering begins March 5.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

With prices getting above the resistance level at 6820, we should be on for a bullish day today, an the likely targets i have in mind at 6857 and 6900. The bulls made hard work of it Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning with prices just hovering around the bottom of the daily channels, however with that rise yesterday afternoon we are back above the channel bottoms and will hopefully be able to pull away from them a bit. The S&P managed to achieve its record close yesterday at 1854, so a bit more bull before the next inevitable decline is probably the order of the day.

466 Comments

  2. my free tip of the day!!!!!!!!! market will drop to 6765 and if this holds well we should be looking at 6810. If 6765 is broken the we will be looking at a further drop to 6730-6740 area.
    i have my tickets in place but remember guys keep a 20 point stop as a rule.
    good luck peeps

    1. oh one more thing if the market hits 6830, i would be looking to sell as this would be a great entry point for a short. taking profits at 6790ish

      1. I opted not to long at 6787 pivot after shorting 6820 down to 6790 this morning… I do have a question regarding your strategy though. Whats the point of a 20 point stop at 6765, if you get stopped out you are at 6745 which is almost the 6730-40 next level anyway? Might as well average down or reduce stop to 10 points. Just my opinion.

        1. for me i often find i keep my stops to low, keeping 20 points stop often lets you redeem your losses so you can enter the market at better entry point.
          just saying through experience!

          1. Averaging is too risky and should be used if used at all as ” a cautious out of strategy one time madness” but not as a rule.

  3. Im in long at 6800 with a 30 point stop, im about 80 percent confident the market will rise 6860 so will hold untill it reaches that target. Obviously stops will go to break even once ive passed 6830.
    I was supposed to go long at 6780 but ive lost patientice as my ticket was missed by 4 points ahhh

    1. as you have a 30 point stop you may still be in for a shot, but i would highly advise you to wait and buy around the 6770-6760 mark just to be safe.
      we have some high market moving reports out at 1.30pm so we could be looking to a rise to 6880 by 4.00pm.
      But if the bears get in control we will be looking at a further drop to 6730

      1. Thanks 🙂 I jumped on to early I agree at some point there will be a sweet spot for a good short cant see the market holding 6800-6900 for long.

    1. 8 years, had good times and bad times but as experience grows the good times come more often, and thanks for the appreciation.

      1. Thank you a lot for your tips. I am trading for 3 years and only now started getting some things right. Cannot get the courage to hold trades, that’s my enemy, but I seem to be getting good entries when I do my hindsight. Yesterday 16135 would have worked well if I held it, but I was spooked my Tuesday’s wipe out of my profits (was +55 points at the time that happened and I was more disappointed as it was my ever first time I held the winning trade, why didn’t happen some other time?).
        maz, could you give us a hint what kind of strategy you are using for your trades? Appreciate a lot.

        1. i use a simple strategy…..STOPS, SUPPORT AND RESISTANCES. i also like marking patterns and trends and work from that.

        2. tbh same stuff that nick is doing, but what makes a good trader is knowing when to cut out of a bad trade early.

          1. Thanks for sharing. I agree, cutting out of the bad trade is the hard thing to do as it’s hard to accept the loss but for me it’s also hard to let the winners run. Hope that comes with experience.

  7. Maz
    Will u still sell yr long & go short at 6830? Or will u hold for the potential 6880 by 4oclock? I’m long from Nicks 6788 pivot myself.
    Thanks.

    1. Thanks for reminding me phill. but i have taken my short ticket off from 6830, im looking for a entry point to go long. you have a good entry point phill you should be in the money by late afternoon.

        1. i have my tickets in place Scotty, but im very tempted to go long on the ftse now….but patience always pays off

  8. ive close my 6800 trade out as it was a poor entry for a long, so now will be entering at 6770 for long to 6860

  9. Maz I find it hard to see how FTSE will drop to 65 for your entry now bar some very bad news at lunchtime. I wait and watch with interest. Personally am long from 90 considering where spx finished last night . Good luck though

  10. What news and I missing for this to drop to 6770-6780 levels again please tell me I might move my stops more?

  11. ‘FT’ mentioned the other day that he didn’t understand why everyone was so bullish on FTSE – I’m of a similar thought..
    Looking at the big FTSE stock on the dailys – quite a few seem to have topping patterns to them (flat tops – RSDB – AZN – BP to name a few). The Euro is also at peak resistance ….
    Just not sure if there is much left with out a smallish correction.

  12. Interesting to see where DOW moves initially on open, IMHO a decent drop to 16200 before some good rises to finish the week strongly. Though it seems bears creeping in…

  15. why everyone soo bullish ??
    Big reports in US out all expected worse (thats not the main reason to be bullish but still)…

  16. GDP lower – Bad news = Rise…. mmm lets see. very bullish daily candle on FTSE yesterday so we’ll see what it looks like close of play today

    1. What timescale are you looking at? I have small short at present so would be happy with that but doesn’t an ascending triangle suggest a break up not down, unless I have misunderstood what you are describing here.

  24. so it seems the market did not drop to where i thought it will, i have to see where it goes when the us opens, slowly it feels like i have wasted my trading day

  31. Closed my short – this has too much strength once again! Not too much damage done though and the higher it goes the further it has to eventually fall !

      1. my original order was to sell from 6830 to 6790 but i think i over thought things and just cancelled the order

        1. Don’t worry didn’t stay there long I was thinking about selling didn’t really have much time so missed it so waiting again for another chance.

  37. My guess FTSE will rise after close too many people profit taking once that’s done which bulk of it should have been then it will rise if DOW keeps going

  38. Yep, seems like short didn’t work, closed b/e 16350.5 Missed the long, hoped for a fast short rejection, nada. nothing happened. Not worth risking.

  40. A lesson to take profits for me today. Just stopped at b/e. Massive frustration with the US and Dax so strong

  43. DAX flying & FTSE falling… Strange. Took a punt LONG at 6795. See what happens. Stop 10. Target 6820

  44. Month end flow….usually get weird movement at monthend on some indices…if in dow be careful as well

  45. Wow that was quick… Took my profit, nice easy 25 pips. Have a great weekend all… Could see this shooting higher still, but who knows.

  46. A pretty decent February….300 points pretty much straight up with few scary dips. As mentioned I am long till the end of April. Perhaps there may be a period of consolidation now with a dip to 6650 at the most. Expect to hit 7000 sometime in April as the new money comes in……just as the wise money decamps to the Hamptons for the summer?

    GLA.

  48. Jane a nice holiday nick. Do any one know how the dax will be looking on open of Monday, I had a long on the dip and I forgot to close my long. Thanks

    1. Foz — DAX has been flattish since ≈ Feb 14. I think there’s a good chance of the upswing kicking in again early next week. Just my opinion. 🙂

  49. Thanks Jim. Went long on Friday night when it went down to just below 9600 and the my phone battery died out on me.

  50. Foz imho think the dax and other indice are going to tunk Monday with the Russia issue.

  51. If the markets were looking for a reason to correct, Putin may well be delivering one on spades. Expect a massive gap down on futures opening Sunday night. Happy days for those short or holding gold, unlucky for those caught long at the top of this bull run.

  52. With that sell off and rebounce after the Russian troops rumours and going to weekend with amazing closes in US indices, I cannot see the markets reacting too much to these developments that were already priced in

  53. Thanks Luke, when you mean Tunk did you mean going up? I am very new to this have been reading posts for many months and used plus 500 demo account, where I made a lot of money, so for the last few weeks gone with real account. this site is a great help and will thank all for there post.

  55. All indices saw huge profit taking ahead of the weekend, don’t think anything is priced into record breaking highs. Best be for next week is short indices, long gold and long VIX

  56. Profit taking ?????
    SPX making a new closing high and DOW closing again in new high.

  57. You are one of the millons in the market that will create volatility for Monday, making lots of oportunities for adding longs

  59. They all ended well off session highs as those with sense sold before the weekend. Sounds like you are fearing the damage of tonight’s gap down on your long positions 😉

  61. Didn’t see the DOW at a closing high, it’s down nearly 400 points since the beginning of the year. Expect it will struggle to hold 16000 this week.

  62. Big damage for a died out battery, will teach me a lesson, never trade on low battery when I’m out.

  63. Foz have been in the same position left position open, over weekends and took a battering on the Monday just a lesson we have all been there best thing too do now is try not to stress.

  64. You do not convince me. Only if I see a gap up, I will short and move stop to b/e as soon as possible

  67. For me this will be another war like the one in Geórgia. Nothing special, only noise

  68. Everyone needs to ask what importance this war has in the economy for the short, medium and long term. Only see lots of oportunities to add longs in the short term. Of course 1860 and 16400 are the last stage to overcome. With lots of volatility expecting Monday… not see this break for now, unless HSBC China is above 50.

  69. Pmstrader we all know your holding longs…. And trying to talk yourself into the reason why you have kept these position open over the weekend… All trader make mistake get over it!! Lol

  70. Not at all. You are wrong. I’m swinging this long and do not want to make some mistake.
    I’ve been very resilent to this last weeks volatilities. In the end we are in highs and a step to all time highs in DOW, breakout above 16400. Only 80 points. Now I have again another mental battle to endure.
    It’s very hard, but I’m still fighting… now the Ukraine is my battle 😀

  71. I could sell Sunday night, but then I would be f***** frustraded, because in the end this Ukraine will be another Geórgia war and a lot of noise.
    If a see nuclear war or something like that, i would not doubt in selling it. But my opinion is a very short term turbulence in Markets or maybe none, because what I saw in SPX was a late rebounce after the rumours of Russian Troops. The price in close told me no RISK aversion to weekend

  74. I’m short Ftse at 6823 and S&P at 1863, challenge now is to let them both run. Agree this will present lots of buying opportunities at the right time. In the meantime it will empty the pockets of those long.

  75. Long EVRAZ as 69p, will be closing that on open, anything linked to Russia or Ukraine will be in for a hammering.

  76. 11 pm is going to be carnage, do feel sorry for those trapped in only hope is for a bounce tomorrow morning for maybe a gap close

  81. The next few hours are considered crucial to assess whether progressively will attend the demilitarization of Russian forces stationed in the Crimea or, on the contrary, the Ukrainian soldiers go in numerical and military disadvantage, start an unconditional surrender

  83. Yes, and … ? Looking at charts in end of week and with russian troops in Ukraine, is what I saw.
    Did not see yet nothing new apart that now they are in Crimeia. That’s all… if this leads to surrender of Ukraine troops or withdrawl of Russian troops, is yet to see.

  85. Look at my charts in twitter and tell me. You wanna be short or long ?

  86. Pms not on twitter can I view your charts any where else?
    If your talking to me my figures are pure speculation

  87. Ukraine: Putin accepts contact group proposed by Merkel

    The Russian President has accepted a proposal from the German Chancellor of creating a “contact group” to start “political dialogue” on Ukraine, the German government said today, after a call from Angela Merkel to Vladimir Putin.
    “President Putin accepted the proposal of the Chancellor to establish a fact-finding mission immediately and contact group, possibly in the direction of the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe], to initiate a political dialogue”, refers to a statement from the German government.

  89. THat’s why I do not want to make any stupid decision, ahead of all that noise. And just as I’m so close of my target.

  94. Too sell or not to sell will it bounce or not tough call could have got out not too badly at 11 as still dropping.
    Ukraine situation so fluid can’t see any of this cooling off over the next week if anything it’s only going to escalate as Putin didn’t get Duma to sign off authority for him to invade Ukraine within 4 hrs of asking late Friday. Tells me events are going to move quite fast over coming days and he knows west will not stand in his way what a bunch off pussys.

    1. you will be stopped out but not at the level where you put your stop, at the level at which the position is stopped . So let’s say you’re long 6800, stop is 6790 but it opens at 6760 at 8am, your position will be closed at 6760 and you lose 30 points not 10.

      Don’t take my word for it but that’s what i think will happen from my personal experience with plus500. The best is to wait and see what happens in the morning. Good luck and try to sleep until then!

  96. Foz I think that is the worse of it till the morning, china data out later could add to more downward pressure if it come in worse than expected.

  100. Foz your stop will hit where the market opens…. So if the dax opens 9570 that where your stop will be hit.

  101. Thanks Andre just going to bed now and hope for the best, so far it’s bouncing around 9550 ish. just hope chine reports come good.

  104. Where is pmstrader this morning?? All priced in?? Rather rash statement made…. Hmmm I wonder if they sell humble pie where he lives 😉

  105. Was so annoyed at Fridays close being cut out of my long when it dipped. What a blessing in hindsight. Bullet dodged!

  108. Question now is whether traders really believe this will be resolved amicably over the next few weeks or are they talking the market up in order to bail? Personally, I’d say the chances of this issue being resolved quickly and painlessly are low.

  112. Shez best tip for today is if your not in a position they stay on the sideline the Russia issue is dominating the market…. One wrong word and it could just tumble….

  113. Thanks Luke, I’m not in yet, was considering a short though with it all looking pretty bearish, was just trying to decide a suitable entry point …

  114. I offer: when this thread gets to 300 comments (it will be too overstretched) to continue writing on Nick’s ” 3rd March – 6th March Holiday” topic, where there’s only 1 comment. Bear in mind Nick is away for the whole week, but we, traders, like to chat a lot. LOL
    We can easily end up with 300 comments on there too.

    1. If your view on 300 comments limit is true – can you suggest another place where we could chat – a skype or IM account or something – Its good to talk to other traders who trade the ftse

      1. You can see. It’s only the end of 3rd March and it’s already 270 comments of so. Don’t know where we could chat while Nick is on holiday so I suggest to move at some point to “3rd March – 6th March Holiday” topic otherwise we’ll end up with 1000 comments here when Nick returns. Just suggestion.

  116. Javed if you are around … is ur target for this dip 6650 still or u already sold ur Long ??

    Havies its going according to ur plan … I am still sticking with my short from 6873

  117. Alright guys, hope everyones trades are going well.
    Short heavy from 6731, will be piling on more.
    But its only going to go down as long as Putin keeps his troops in ukraine
    If they pullout shorts could be trapped.
    Something thats bothering me, given the volatility on thursday.

    2. Where did you see the Triple Bottom – how many mins chart? Do you have a chart you can show or send me?

  126. Why do people keep along for charts
    Nicks on holiday and search google there are loads of charts to use

  128. Well that worked out nicely ! This is looking too volatile I’ve gained 35 points today think ill step to the sidelines and watch for the remainder.

  129. looks like that triple bottom was correct – made a quick £ 280 on my 6677 Long trade

  131. Just the basics, looking at the daily pivot, the resistance and support levels and then any double/triple bottoms/tops and keeping a close eye on the news to see what the situation is in Ukraine that could impact price along with looking at the wall street opening prices. Just the bare minimum, to be honest I think I’m going to subcsribe to Nick when hes back as I am pretty inexperienced.

    1. You are preety good, I think you are negative about your abilities.
      yes i have been following nick and he has been very accurate.
      i also am thinking of subscribing

    1. Nice one 🙂 I didn’t sold the others worked okay bar DOW but I’m in quite low on that and moved stops above open.

    1. I can see how this can happen on Friday I had a swing between -£1300 to +£731 on the same day can be scary ive moved my bets down a lot now as it could have been -£2000.

      1. Yes – very easy – I have learnt this the hard way. I Always keep my stop 5 points away. Max loss £ 50

        1. Other mistake on Friday was I kept adding more bets to recoup losses I was up to +£45 in the end which is crazy it work I made £700 but it could have been a disaster so I’m on +£2’s and +£5’s today 🙂 more sensible until account looks healthier thinking more long term than short.

          1. Yes – good point. I only trade at 10 per point. Never add or go lower with risk £ 50 – ie 5 points Very boring – but safe

        2. Gosh, 5 points away…. The tightest stop I’ve even had was 10 points on FTSE. On Dow you need wider stop most of the time. Plus stop loss is normally calculated depending on the trading situation and when is your entry. I don’t have a set stop loss now. It could differ from 20-30 points or even more depending on the entry point.

      2. I wrote stories like this in my log before and I am still trading. I will not believe this man will never trade again. He was just sad and defeated. Never give up.

    2. phff, small change mate, I lost over £80k. I don’t lke to work out how much, but it’s closer to £100k. I still trade, but much more sensible. I’m up about 75% on my shares in the last year, but it will be many years before I recoup I believe.

      I get by with a bottle og wine these days.

      GLA and if you ever want a tip on not what to do just ask.

  135. is 5 points enough? I was planning to do a system 5-10 point stop which a 10-15 point upside but worried 5 points is to low.

    1. Hi all. On holiday but still checking in. You won’t hit the 300. Comment limit as I can just do a new post.

      1. Hi Nick – while you are sunning yourselves – we are baking here. Any helpful hints before you go back to your drinks by the pool. lucky you

        1. Ha ha! I get back Thursday night FYI. The Russia situation will probably be sorted diplomatically but will take a few days. Doubt WW3 will kick off. Will be volatile and indices were already maxed out. Short the rallies.

    2. I only trade on a Triple Top / Bottom – with 5 points stop – Success is 60-70%
      Profit – 10-15 points – 1: 2/3 Risk reward – Works out

    3. Betting amounts depends on your bank – I heard somewhere £1.00 if you a £1000 bank – £10 p/p if you’ve got £10K bank etc ( £50 p/p = £50k Bank )

  136. Hi everybody…..is everybody asleep incl PMS
    read Nicks comments – went short at 6715 and will short every rally and hold

  138. I am new to the market – do you think market will collapse or recover from here. I want to buy the Dax but with merkels comments not feeling positive about it.
    any comments about it. IG is negative in the outlook.

    1. I would have thought it was dependent on the news flow ….there maybe better weeks to trade in the future !

      1. So you think the ukraine affair is not market moving?
        should i wait till the feds or osbornes speech?

      2. Dax is down over 2.5% so is cac and the ftse 1.25% – do you not call this a good move. If i had sold on friday – my account would be up 2.5%. Not sure i understand you hugh?

        1. Kevin – I know what you’re saying – the news flow has made some big moves on the indicies.
          Most people may trade patterns or indicators all of which are irrelevant if some important news breaks.

    1. Do you agree that the market is going down. if yes – then you will see benefits. if you think its going long – then you will lose. so to control the market – go short. you will see i am right. i can read the market very well now. so by listening to my knowledge you will gain. my expetise is free.

  141. putin is a bully and will not back off . so this is going to escalate. which means uncertainty. market does not like uncertaianty. so market will go down

    1. You will see you were not able to anaylse the market. You will lose money. Don’t blame me then. I have told you the market will go down.

  144. While you all are buying this market …i made a killing shorting it since sunday. i will keep on shorting. take my advise we are in for a 5% market correction

  145. FYI i am up well over 100 pips by weekend i should be up by 300pips. watch me

  148. I am heavy on shorts …. keeping it for next 4 days – 6600 tommorow 6500 on wednesday & 6300 on Friday. I am laughing all the way to the bank. trading is so simple – when you know how. If you cant see this then you should not be trading.
    the market is so simple to read. but all of you are scared to short because you think russia will back down. trust me the market always knows and when it is showing it you should take it

  151. Hugh – are you in a short. My advise is free. I have learnt it over many years. now watch me control the market.

    1. Twit – I was Short – Friday afternoon 6805 – put in a Stop – which completed my trade on Friday night.
      Just enjoying your posts today !

      1. Your trade shows me – you are a novice. But that is ok – we were all novices at one time. But you must be prepared to learn.

  153. Pmstrader you mislead people on this forum, last night you was saying how this Russian issue will not effect the markets… And now your super short lol…. I don’t want to say I told you so 😉

    1. anybody can say simply go long or short. I gave the reasons yesterday why not to go short. Today I am giving reasons. That is where my ability comes of value. I can see what the market is doing minute by minute. So now as I speak – see I am correct – the market is going down

        1. James – the market does not go in a straight line. this up is only a retracement – you will see.

    1. Every day is a new day. the market is fast moving. so its my ability to control my emotion and trade. i blend with the market with agility. you watch me trade. you will learn a lot from it. and you will benefit and its free

  155. PMSTrader, I have to take a double take today, as yesterday prior to market opening you were saying the market had already priced in the drop and were holding longs. At what point (market level) did you close your longs, and were they for profit or loss? Also, what is your average short position?

    1. FYI – my stops were placed exactly to catch any unforseen conditions. I lost only £ 100 – that was my calculation and it proved correct. I know how to use stops. I know I can make the loss back in the next hour. & thats exactly what i did.
      FYI – my average shorts are 6750 – which is placed exactly to take advantage of this fall. You will see – i will be correct as usual. Now i am giving my hard learnt wisdom free

  156. Closed my short nice profit not holding overnight I have a feeling dow will rally a tad so long on dow 🙂

  157. James – take advantage of this up move to sell. Dont be fooled by the market. Traders with little knowledge – will buy. You need to have experiance like me to have the courage to sell when it looks as if it will go up. I have learnt this from watching master professional traders.

  158. Pms how can you average short be 6750??? The market open this morning at 6703 and most it rose to was 6745…. I think you live in a dream world mate your were so certain the markets was going up last night and quate if the market go down I will add to my longs!!!

    1. So are you not able to place a trade before market open with your broker?

  159. TWITTER @pmstrader
    March 2, 2014
    With that sell off and rebounce after the Russian troops rumours and going to weekend with amazing closes in US indices, I cannot see the markets reacting too much to these developments that were already priced in

  160. TWITTER @pmstrader
    March 2, 2014
    You are one of the millons in the market that will create volatility for Monday, making lots of oportunities for adding longs

  161. TWITTER @pmstrader
    March 2, 2014
    You do not convince me. Only if I see a gap up, I will short and move stop to b/e as soon as possible

    1. As I said – you have to be agile and able to read the market fast. You can see from my comments today – how agile I have been . The market can get it wrong sometimes. but it is the traders ability to see this and react fast. this is what the difference between an experienced trader like me and a novice trader like Hugh – who came out of his shorts. But he can learn. and I hope my thoughts from my experiance will help him

      1. MATE, WHAT THE FUCK YOU STILL DOING ON THIS FORUM??!! Such an experience trader like YOU should be on BARBADOS enjoying the sun not pissing about on here and being so up his own arse!

  162. TWITTER @pmstrader
    March 2, 2014
    Everyone needs to ask what importance this war has in the economy for the short, medium and long term. Only see lots of oportunities to add longs in the short term. Of course 1860 and 16400 are the last stage to overcome. With lots of volatility expecting Monday… not see this break for now, unless HSBC China is above 50.

  163. Pmstrader these were some of the statement you made last night…. You are misleading people on this forum… Like I said earlier go eat some humble pie!!

    1. Luke – I can understand what you are trying to say. But you are not reading what I have written today – which explains exactly how my thoughts work. Agility is the first and foremost in a trader.

  164. I have to catch the tube from the City. I will try to post my comments – from the wine bar where all the professionl traders hang out. I will give you their thoughts as they see it – which will be on the same grounds as i see the market.

    1. Oh it’s shame you have to go – I really haven’t been able to trade this afternoon as I’ve been laughing so much !

    1. Guess have to give you credit for putting all your cards on the table and making predictions… You have however made an equally bold bearish statement today that we are going to be losing another 400 pts this week… Very Bold… Especially after last nights statements lol. It will be very amusing if we have seen the bottom today… That will be 2 of the worst calls ive heard on here in a while. I don’t think it helps that you big yourself up so much on here, promoting your twitter account and ‘Free Advise’… You are no better than most of us on here.

      For the record i am Short at 6720 and looking for a conservative 6650 tomorrow minimum.

  166. Great soap opera on here today! Waiting for a long opp. Too scared to short. Rally back may be brutal

  168. Ok pmstrader I am not questioning your strategy but you need to remember that this forum have all different level of traders some novice some expert… Sometime it better too explain how you come too some of your idea…. It was a certainly the market would sell off this morning.

    1. Who knows !! stop looking in the mirror ….

      But unlike you giving stupid advice ONCE it’s Bolted, I’m sure I mentioned BEFORE it went up at 16.59…

      But I guess you would say your building in longs now hahahaha

      1. Only holding… if you read my last post : DO NOTHING
        WEAK hands is what we have now in hands 😀

  171. I do not have the time or patience to read what he wrote.
    But my assessment in the market is the same as yesterday.
    Still swinging my long in US.
    Looking only for the close to see how the charts look. From there I can have an opinion for the 2nd day with markets open and Ukraine situation developments.

    As I told yesterday, lots of intraday volatility, until this Ukraine situation resolves.
    It’s a “russian rollet” to enter this markets after the situation is in hands. Any news can have big upside or big downside.
    The weak hands will sell if they were in the markets prior.

    It seems the markets open in gap down in Europe. What was a surprise for me, was seeing this gap down in US indices.
    Bus as I said yesterday, there are, as always a lot of weak hands selling in this major events, that in most situations are solved in a couple of days…causing lots of volatility and noise.

  172. So my clown is saying to short this indices 😀
    You choose between my clown and me.

    Word of the day : do nothing, wait

      1. It’s much better than going to lose money :D. I prefer then go to a Casino…more interesting

    2. Ahh so someone has used your ID on here….ahh okay
      I thought Nick used to show IP addresses on here before to stop that sort of issue.

  174. Scotty

    Apologies really busy at work these days. Personally I am still holding my longs. 6550 is where I would get nervous. Anywhere between 6675 and 6575 could be a fantastic entry point to take advantage of the Crimea situation eventually calming down and new money coming in April.

  175. 6780??? You mean 6680 surely… Even so risky holding longs overnight. Could gap down again

    1. Or gap up, if we see an agreement in Ukraine. You never know.
      SPX as the leader benchmark with a good close. No damage in price action.
      DOW a little worse, but it will follow the leader

      1. good call james .. I lost a good chunk last night and today morning when it shot up to 6770 region …

  177. 6790 area should throw up some resistance
    and may play this morning with possible support around the 6740 area
    That would be my technical play for this morning..
    However, the safest bet for the next couple of days would be to stay out of the markets until some sort of deal is done…
    If all quite and confidence returns we may see further upside when the US opens

    1. above that ,8717 i think would be the very top today, once broken we will resume a push higher to break the 8760

      so if playing to get in get out, play the channels

    2. Great shout James, went short from 6790, at 6776 now, question is where to cash in, Do you think it worth waiting for the 6740 mark?

      1. MY trade today is to play the above channels,
        My long from yesterday to the 90 area was my trade…
        to day If I play I may gamble to the 40 area, but you have to make your own mind up…..the next couple of days until some kind of deal is done will be risky trading….
        40 area is a guide, if you choose to short you make your own mind up
        the point is, unless you have an exit plan I would not trade
        Finding entry trades are easy, finding exits are tougher.

          1. 6740 to 6790 area
            A break of 6817 see’s the market continue higher

            So they re MY channel trades for today.

  178. Gap up. Exactly what i predicted. Now as i said short the market from here on every move higher as i told you,

  179. I am surprised markets have rallied with Russia saying that any sanctions that are put on them will force them from not trading in the dollar and that they would not pay any loans back to the us finacial system.

  180. Have taken a small short on the ftse @ 6785 will see how we get on in the next few hours target 50 to 60 points.

    1. It was a bull flag all along, I didn’t short and now it’s possibly a bit too early. It’s not a pull back from the short we’ve seen over the last 2 day but another leg up: testing the top. Possible double top on Dow but may overshoot.
      Oh, I wish Nick was here with his chart. I bet Nick would have drawn some kind of arrow down and up for today. Miss you, Nick, come back home soon!!!!

  184. Does anyone trade seasonality patterns? Like certain shares / markets being down / up for the past ten years on certain dates or months, and trade on that basis?

    1. Lee – You haven’t by any chance watched that video about a Secret Calender ?
      I’d put the idea aside. IMO – By the time you have finished researching it the markets will have moved and simple TA would have picked this up.

      1. Hugh, No I haven’t.

        I’ve got a few seasonality books. I’m looking at what patterns they’ve found and then doing my own research to work out if that company / market on that day has been profitable %80 of the time for the past 10 years. It stood me in very good stead over the ‘santa rally’, but not on 1st Jan. Next big FTSE date is 1st April – which has risen every time for the past 10 years.

        1. Lee – I love all that kind of stuff and have done tons of it over the last 15-18 Years . But I had to stop it for the following reasons:
          I was becoming more obsessed with programming and statistics than the markets.
          Because of the statistical data – my attitude to ‘the trade’ was becoming fuzzy (i.e if the statistics said something should be going up and it wasn’t – where does this leave you).
          I finally came to the conclusion that consistent day to day TA is the best resource.

    2. I would tend to agree with Hugh. But there are statistical monthly variations of the overall market. Say March – is the best time to sell as September is the best month to buy

      1. So, once I’ve identified the share / pattern I then should see if the month is typically strong for the buy shares (outperform the market) and seeing if the sell shares are in the weak months to further support the plan?

        1. E.g GSK risen 9 out 10 past April’s by an average of 3.5%. April averages 2.5%. Buy GSK in April?

    1. javed if march is a sell month does ur model not take into account tht … just asking as u expect it touch heights by april

  186. I use DAILY STOCK MARKET TTEMDS BY SVHWARTZ to confirm my experenced analydis techmique. See how i predicted gap up . Book said 55percent chance going up

  187. Whats everyone doing today I’m short average 6772 not sure it was a good idea I got stung this morning with the high jump up around 6:30am 🙁

  189. Scotty

    Yes. Feb to April are actually up months historically. So put it simplistically although there are other factors the models suggests going long under current conditions.
    As for the sell off….that was my personal view based on fundamentals….not the systematic trading model. Hence why I said I was holding my longs even though I expected a dip.

      1. Just got stopped huge loss but short again from 6806 if I lose this one then I’m out for a while until this Russia thing settles, I cant see news from Russia weird??

  192. looks like we are testing resistance L2 at 6,819, has there been some further news on Russia?

  193. It was a bull flag all along, I didn’t short and now it’s possibly a bit too early. It’s not a pull back from the short we’ve seen over the last 2 day but another leg up: testing the top. Possible double top on Dow but may overshoot.
    Oh, I wish Nick was here with his chart. I bet Nick would have drawn some kind of arrow down and up for today. Miss you, Nick, come back home soon!!!!

  194. News from Russia is they are not sending troops to Ukraine …. Would love to see Putin ig account lol

    1. Lol huge swing today bet its wiped a lot of people out two huge jumps in one day should have listened to the person that said don’t trade this week.

        1. I know but I can see this going up way more on US opening depending if news changes so closed all shorts now.

  195. Fair point, I suppose its down to the psychology, and how long you’re willing to keep trades open for.

  196. IG index Hugh closed all for now going to lick my wounds Fri and Mon were good today wipped all profits out, I’m worried one bit of bad news regarding Russia this will collapse hard and I cant make my mind up so best out for now as chasing movements never works.

    1. I only ask as IG give you the option to open a new position whilst maintaining your opposing position.
      E.g when you were short earlier – couldn’t a Long (new position) be placed at 6800.
      I know this is in hindsight ! But you know the expression but to arrive than travel.
      I use Saxo – they don’t offer this facility – it’s either one way or the other.

    1. Thats the magic question, however, looking at the bigger picture we have risen 100 points now from 12:00am! Lets see what impact U.S will have at 1:30pm

      1. Follow the markets !!!!

        The channels today are 6740-6790-6817 areas…

        The market would love to push and break 6860 area but it’s risky until Russia sorts it self out…

        so any news considered bad you will see a drop,
        But the buyers will be right on that looking to buy any shorts…

  198. Can’t see a downturn yet, everything is too up-beat at the moment. Would expect a test of 6850 shortly which will be a strong resistance point.

  199. Nick did say yesterday – that this rally is over and signals are there for a decline. He clearly said short any rally. I am also getting signals that this is going to peter out somewhere here. Getting ready to short on a triple.

    1. Nick says:
      March 3, 2014 at 2:43 pm
      Ha ha! I get back Thursday night FYI. The Russia situation will probably be sorted diplomatically but will take a few days. Doubt WW3 will kick off. Will be volatile and indices were already maxed out. Short the rallies

  200. If you draw a line from feb 4th low – support to 25th feb – the up channel has broken. I cant see in the near future the prices getting back above this line.

    1. Don’t place tight stops today as they are taken off with this volatile. Risky days. Trade only when you are sure. GL

    1. If the US open well it will go 6820 for sure double it will until then news depending.

    1. Ive done the same well 6829 IG spread sometimes bounce off at sell of round numbers, did you close your earlier short?

  206. Little movement over the last 2 and a half hours on the 30 min chart…quiet before the storm maybe?

  208. If the dow gets near 16400 I’m going to short that too on Friday it tanked when it hit 400.

  209. ok putin, announce youre riding your bear into ukraine, mention youve dropped a “how to build nuclear launching equipment for dummies” manual into north korea too.

  210. Right, I started shorting. Got one short and 2 more orders up to 16450 in total = my usual stake in March contract. So at the moment I am only risking 1/3 of my usual stake, want to build this short and see what happens. A bit worried it’s expires 21st of March. Not sure what happens when this type of Indexes expire. Do you have to pay?

    1. Hi Jack – The price just gets closer to the cash market price.
      (I think) it gets ‘closed’ at expiry at roughly the same price as the cash market – so if need be it can be “rolled over” to another position further out.

      1. Thank you, Hugh, I can always call them if it gets close to that date just to find out their terms.

        1. now 2/3rd is running practically around b/e, one more order above 16400 needs to be triggered, but never mind if it doesn’t, it could be added at any time as long as it goes in the right direction. Will see.

  211. Looks like we have broken resistance level 2 (6,819), the bulls have certainly been out to play today.

  212. since 11am to date – market is in a tight range of 20 points.
    Is this Putin fear ??
    Is this a Topping out process ??
    Every oscillator is on High alert – OVERBOUGHT !!
    So can we buy Now ??
    Or is the market having a laugh on us??
    Um I wonder !!

    1. Im still short from 6785, hoping the market was having a laugh and will come back to reality overnight!

  213. My friends in the city call this a Short Squeeze.
    When its over – as I have been saying – a mighty fall of 5 – 10%.
    I have just added to my shorts.
    My experience tells me that the Gap Up – which I predicted
    is complete.

  214. The ϵ-channel (dotted line) runs from the start of 2012, taking in the run from ≈ 5600 in Nov 2012 all the way to ≈ 6900 last May. The shorter-term σ-channel runs from last July. It suggests a less ambitious growth path and does a good job of containing the FTSE’s fluctuations. My observation is that the FTSE has been tightly range bound since last July – peaks and troughs have been constrained within close limits – compare with the period Jan 2012-Jun 2013. Sooner or later the latter σ-channel will give way to a breakout. Whether it is up or down is anyone’s guess I think: there is plenty of scope for a surge to 7000 or a plunge to 6500. Apologies, this is probably unhelpful! 🙂

    http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps0c976de1.png

      1. Hi Jason, I use ProRealTime for the charts as made available by IG. An excellent programming language is included – the indicator shown above is one of my own. But ProRealTime includes a wide range of standard indicators; MACD, etc., etc. ProRealTime is free via IG provided that you place at least 4 bets per month – which says something about IG’s confidence!

  215. I have built up a heavy short position avg 6782 – This will make one of the best Trades for the year. Gap down tomorrow & Schwartz analysis shows that 5th 6th 7th are all Sell days – > 60%. With my gap up prediction for today being correct – I will show how Gap down position will work for tomorrow. I will keep on shorting. Now off to meet my city friends. I’ll post you soon

        1. Better to build up short slowly, who knows will it go down or not, I wouldn’t put my neck on the line yet.

  218. Ahahahahah, sorry folks my clown is back and now he uses Google portuguese translation. I think I’m going to give my place to him in this website.
    Unless Nick does something about it

  219. 16400 close above and DOW is going to all time highs. Looking for 16700-17600 range in next weeks.

  221. Ftse stalling at 6820, S&P struggling to hold 1870. Down from here or a catapult up on US jobs news? Crisis, what crisis?!

  222. The Russian military says it has test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, as tension continues over Ukraine’s Crimea region.

    A Topol RS-12M missile was launched from Russia’s Kapustin Yar test range near the Caspian Sea to the Sary Shagan range in Kazakhstan, it said.

    It comes after the US accused Russia of an “act of aggression” in Crimea.

    The US said it was given advance notice of the missile launch, as required by bilateral arms treaties.

    “We have been notified of this test earlier this week, it’s not unexpected,” a defence official told the AFP news agency.

    The Topol was fired at 22:10 (18:10 GMT), the defence ministry in Moscow said, adding: “The aim of the launch was to test a promising intercontinental ballistic missile payload.”

    The nuclear-capable missile reached its target successfully, it said.

    Tests of the missile, one of Russia’s newest, are not unusual but the timing of the launch if confirmed, is likely to alarm observers of the crisis with Ukraine.

    2. U.S. says Russia warned that it would launch before the missile crisis in Crimea 😀 😀

      Good point but markets ignored

  223. Now DOW is for it’s positive rentability for the year, above 16600. SPX it’s already there

  224. Pmstrader… Us state they new earlier this week the crisis has been going on since Friday!! Anyway you being the greatest trader bet you made another 150 points today lol…. Are you dollar in disguise ???

  225. It’s positioning trade. Do not care about intraday noise. And sometimes I prefer doing this kind of trade, better than guessing tops and bottoms and being been hit by stops.
    Once I found an entry I try to stay there. The first days are the worse but then you start to begin to have confidence. Of course there will be some bumps and you need to struggle mentally. But then you need to know when is time to exit.
    Last year I lost 50% of my profit in a positioning trade, when I had full confidence in the target and worse… I changed the target. The market top some distance points from where I wanna exit. And instead of exiting there…
    Now my 1st target is 16660-16790. The other is 17100. THis last one is where I would love to exit. I think it will be it in middle April.
    So I need to think straight if I exit 1st target to be hit maybe in end March or wait another month. Need to see price action/sentiment how it goes. Very struggling

  226. Forgot to say, that today US indices confirmed both breakouts.
    Now will start a strong uptrend with contained moves

    1. I was looking at my extensive charts which i have accumulated over many years and I have seen a bull flag in the weekly chart. So I have had to revise my targets. 1st target is now 18750 2nd target is 19962 and my final target – which i should think will be hit late june – probably around 27th – is 21654.
      Peter Howard of the Cyclical society has also similar figures – though his final target will be 23456 around July 1st .
      This time I will be holding my positions till atleast June 25th.
      A weekly Bull Flag means there will be no retracements of significance less than 20 points .

      1. FYI 18750 is my target
        Peter Howards target is 23456 – he relies on cyclical patterns
        for his analisis

    1. Luke, do you think we should call for the gays with white jackets for pmstrader??..lol…23456 on Dow by 1st of July??What planet is he on???About 40% rise in 3 months, yah I can see that…lol….I WANT WHATEVER HE IS ON!!….lol

      1. FYI 18750 is my target
        Peter Howards target is 23456 – he relies on cyclical patterns
        for his analisis

    2. Twitter : @PMSTrader says:
      March 5, 2014 at 8:25 am
      I was looking at my extensive charts which i have accumulated over many years and I have seen a bull flag in the weekly chart. So I have had to revise my targets. 1st target is now 18750 2nd target is 19962 and my final target – which i should think will be hit late june – probably around 27th – is 21654.
      Peter Howard of the Cyclical society has also similar figures – though his final target will be 23456 around July 1st .
      This time I will be holding my positions till atleast June 25th.
      A weekly Bull Flag means there will be no retracements of significance less than 20 points .

      Reply
      Twitter : @PMSTrader says:
      March 5, 2014 at 10:59 am
      FYI 18750 is my target
      Peter Howards target is 23456 – he relies on cyclical patterns
      for his analisis

      Reply

      THIS 2 LAST POSTS ARE NOT MINE. IT’S THE CLOWN
      THAT’S MY LAST POST HERE. BYE TO ALL.
      I LEAVE YOU WITH THAT CLOWN

  228. Totally f..d with this short, I see it now. Thinking just to close the loss while it’s still not too significant.

    2. The way I see it – we are in a range market – since 11am yesterday. There are good arguments for both Up & Down. Probably the best thing is to put a stop and wait.

      1. Well, I am on Dow and still have one more add up around 16430 which never was triggered, now I am on 2/3 of my usual stake at around 16375 (-20 points of this stake which is -16 points of my usual stake).
        I’ll figure it out.

        1. Jack – I’m Short as well but I’m happy to hold simply on the basis that ofcourse we’ll see some action below 6800 at some stage.

    3. When nothing is happening – I also see things which are not there. I also read other peoples thoughts and that confuses me further. Take for example Twitter PMS – His thoughts are very reactive. My suggestion is do your own analysis

  230. I have put more buy orders at 16350 16320 and ofcourse 16300. These positions are for the Bently which I want to buy. Should be able to get it when my positions hit my first target. Ahahahahah. Never seen the market so easy to predict.

    1. You cannot buy something which you do not know how to spell. You’ll order the wrong thing on the troll forums of the wrong site.

      Major shorting yesterday where you said 5th 6th and 7th are short days, but today (5th) you’re going long?

        1. Ofcourse you did…lol… to be honest I am shocked that such an experience trader like yourself doesn’t have one by now…lol..did anything went wrong with your strategies in the past perhaps??

    1. I wouldnt bet against this market – the s+p500 breakout has showed it wasnt a false breakout

        1. typo tht previous !!

          Jules I am on sidelines … its an all buy signal which is my reason not to buy in here its in news breakout blah blah .. don’t bet against this market thing etc .. i am short from 6873 and have set it to b/e ..

  233. It’s positioning a trade well. I do not care about silly intraday noise, infact I get annoyed and think what a waste of time. I prefer doing this kind of trade, better than guessing tops and bottoms and being been hit by stops.
    Now I have found an entry I try to stay there. The first few minutes are the worse but then you start to realize you have placed a beauty and I am always confident that I am correct with my ananlysis . Of course there will be some bumps and you need to to be strong mentally as i have learnt to be . But then you need to know when is time to exit.

  235. I will give one advise. Look at ADP emplayment forecast – 159K – so low. They have set it like that to take the market higher. Its ridiculous figure which will be beaten – like 175 or 200K . Then what do you think will happen. I ask you. Ahahahahah Its a one way bet. I have been saying this all the time. My positions will skyrocket. Ahahahahah

    2. Bee – Unless you should be able to take valuable advise for what it is. I am sure most people are thankful for my thoughts and how i trades

  238. Got an order 6786 Long (Nicks daily pivot). 20 point stop. Hope to get stop to b/e asap then see wot happens. Thoughts any1 please..?

    1. Read my notes. I am long and am positioning for a rally. This market is ready to take off. my targets are 18750 as first target

    1. Read my notes on Ftse from Monday. I clearly said it would fall. Short every rally. You know my thoughts on Dow.

    2. This is the first time I’m witnessing the actual opposite direction on both indexes.

      1. Europe & US have different views on Russia – as well as dependency. Its all that trade & gas !!! Ahahahahah

  240. fully bull market for me, been long since 6680 added on the way up till here.
    added more at 6790

    1. Better to take profits – you would have been better off 50 points nearly. One thing i have learnt – There is nothing wrong in taking profits & then placing another trade when the market re-traces. Just a small not of advise.

      1. Have you ever seen a market not re-trace and give no place for an entry. How would you deal with this?

  242. Ftse will have a significant bounce from 6778 – a retracement move – watch for it

  243. DAX
    If we start pushing through 9600 today then the outlook remains positive. Targets are 9613 & 9648 then short term trend line resistance at 9675/80 which should hold a move higher. However,
    A good chance we turn lower today to support at 9530/25 then 9490/85. If we continue lower look for good support at 9460/55 but below here meets yesterday’s low at 9425/15. Just be aware that on a break lower today we have a gap to fill at 9373/68

    S&P
    S&P unexpectedly broke 1866/67 all time highs but we are hitting strong short & long term trend line resistance at 1874/75. Although this bull market appears unstoppable this area should be a very tough challenge. There is a good chance we top out here for the week & head lower to 1865/64 with support below at 1859/58. If however we continue lower look for 1854/53 then 1849/48 which should hold the downside at this stage.
    Shorts at 1875/77 need stops above 1880. A break higher keeps bulls in control for 1884/85 then 1888/89.

    2. My only advise to you is – watch for ADP revisions & figures away from forecast !!! you will see then what i mean

      1. lets hope people read what i wrote above then they can make some money instead of listening to your toilet

  246. What did I say about the bounce from 6778

    Twitter : @PMSTrader says:
    March 5, 2014 at 11:59 am
    Ftse will have a significant bounce from 6778 – a retracement move – watch for it

  247. Twitter : @PMSTrader says:
    March 4, 2014 at 10:22 pm
    Forgot to say, that today US indices confirmed both breakouts.
    Now will start a strong uptrend with contained moves

    THAT WAS MY LAST POST YESTERDAY AND LAST FOREVER HERE
    BYE TO ALL

    2. You also said the ADP figures would be 175 – 200!

      You also said 5th 6th and 7th were short days.

      A broken clock is right once a day!

    1. This time of day, the FTSE follows the S&P and the DAX will move faster….
      If I trade the FTSE after 11.30am I’m trading with the above markets.

    2. Immediate support is 6776/73 but any longs need stops below 6765 for good support at 6750/44. If we continue lower look for the next target & support at 6725 & a good chance of a bounce from here. my views this morning

    1. Toni,
      I gave you my views at 1.05 today,
      S&P, DAX,DOW and FTSE is all i look at to trade,
      That’s good…

      Have a nice day.

  252. Did anyone else notice that the US had a really bad data over the past two months and how conveniently they blame everything on the weather??!!..lol….we had so much rain and flooding in UK, in Europe the weather wasn’t great either but it didn’t effected the economic numbers as much as over the pond. Is it perhaps possible that the economy over there is not doing so great as they all think?! Most of the businesses over there instead investing in the future growth were actually borrowing money and buying back own stock. That is hardly the way to grow the economy.

    1. And there we are again Non- Mfg ISM comes much much weaker then expected!…so, must be weather again!…lol… just wondered how come all those big economist have probably taken weather factor in to consideration and still got it so wrong..lol

  254. I am out of the short completely. Closed the last running 1/3 short with the little loss (-20 points equal -7 of my usual stake) and took fast scalp long (+9 of usual stake) and now out with thoughts. OK, I came out with no damage here, but again the short I took yesterday wasn’t by my strategy. It was an old and nasty habit of “picking up the top strategy” of which I am trying to get rid of. And so long today was a defense trade rather than planned trade as it should have been. Not sure if long now is a good idea as I don’t see a decent pull back yet.

  255. Attention to everyone! Nick has opened a new topic so please write your comments there. Thanks.

Comments are closed.