6800, 6785 support, 6816, 6838 resistance

Good morning. The initial short at 6821 failed, and the FTSE managed to rise to 6840 in the end, then sold off, coinciding with a whopping rise in gold. Quite rare for gold to move so much so maybe something about to happen over Iraq. There wasn’t really a corresponding move in equites for that gold move, though you’d suspect it would be down if gold rises. Would tally with us still knowing on all these daily channel tops. Talking of which the 10 day Bianca channel top is now at 6811 – where we are, with the Raff at 6830.

US jobless news was slightly better, dropping by 6000 people.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks held near a six-year high, with the regional benchmark index on course for the longest run of weekly advances since August, as materials and technology companies dropped.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.1 percent to 145.26 as of 11:55 a.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge is on course to advance 0.8 percent this week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she expects U.S. interest rates to stay near zero for a “considerable time” after stimulatory bond buying ends.

“Investors need to be asking whether the Fed and Yellen will prove to be as stubbornly dovish on monetary policy as much of the commentary now assumes,” said Ric Spooner, chief strategist at CMC Markets Ltd. in Sydney. “Market thinking on this may be tested if U.S. economic growth and inflation rates continue to improve in coming months. With little on the slate in terms of economic releases, today may be a typically quiet session for markets.”

Regional Gauges
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.5 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 1.1 percent as Lotte Chemical declined 3.5 percent to 177,500 won and Samsung Electronics retreated 1.7 percent to 1.3 million won.

New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.7 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index retreated 0.5 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.2 percent, whileSingapore’s Straits Times Index dropped 0.2 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex Index fell 0.2 percent, with losses limited as HTC rose 2.6 percent to NT$136.50. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.2 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) is on course for the longest weekly winning streak since August after closing yesterday at the highest level since June 2008. The gauge traded at 13.4 times estimated earnings yesterday compared with 16.6 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and 15.6 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

U.S. Futures
Futures on the S&P 500 dropped less than 0.1 percent today after the equity index climbed yesterday to a record high. Reports yesterday showed initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. dropped by 6,000 people to 312,000 in the week to June 14, while a Bloomberg gauge of the U.S. outlook showed Americans are the most optimistic about the economy’s prospects in a year.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Previous resistance of 6810 held as support in the end after that drop from 6840. Further rises above 6838 now target 6848 and 6887. However, the daily channel tops are in play, 6811 Bianca and 6830 Raff as mentioned above (both on 10 day). The pivot for today is 6808, so initial support there though I am thinking that breaks and we get a drop to 6784.

63 Comments

  1. Thanks Nick, was not expecting us to back test but am thinking we drop from 6830 as you suggest. I am expecting this to head down to 6700

  2. Looks to me like FTSE/1 hr. is consolidating for a further rise — say 6840-60 today. But that’s just my contrary nature! 😉

  5. DOW
    5 MIN CHART
    SHORT SIGNAL 16915

    (I don’t trade the DOW – just posting for reference.
    High yesterday was 16921).

  6. Shit just moved my stop up to 6845 was not expecting this pump up. It’s got to tumble soon

  7. I’ve gone short at 34 my shorts from last night stopped out. Can only keep half an eye on things today as I’m off on my stag weekend today so I’ve moved stops into profit and ill let it run its course.

  12. I laugh to all that analysts experts that were dooming Nasdaq with a H&S.

    It broke start of June, just a couple days after SPX broke 1902.
    And I assume my guilt, in closing my long in SPX, not only because of them, but they had some influence.
    They all now gone quiet

    1. more than 50 points up in SPX in one month. How stupid I could have been. I was not paying a lot of attention to markets. I saw that slope in 50 ma and even with that, I just wanna exit with profit and dismiss the weak signals that SPX was telling me and in other occasions I would have taken serious.

  14. Anyone is looking to us rates ? It broke recently to the upside and is starting a new upside trend. This could be a trigger for a sell

    1. I think that is why everything is a little confused.
      Rates going to go up but they’re to be held lower for a bit longer…
      I would have thought that every country wants to maintain lower rates for as long as possible which is why it seems the UK is the odd one out !
      I’m not an “economist” ..so it’s likely that I don’t know what I’m talking about !

      1. I’m not too, but as you said, it’s a little confused. Even what analysts say and what FED wants, the charts are starting to show something different.
        Where did I read this before 😀 ?

    1. ftse just playing around not taking any direction! guess there is a bull run before close!

    2. Yep – but look at where it bounced to
      (Can’t believe.. we’re talking about a couple of points here!)
      To me – it looks as if it’s losing momentum
      (I’ve said it now !)
      Mind you if it goes to 6810 ish – I’ll probably have to switch to
      a Long position…
      That is …if I’m still awake..

  16. Marco, hold that short… you may be right with that call. Looking at FTSE daily chart, I had a trend line drawn some months ago that passes trough 6830 area. This is where it wants to break to the upside.

    1. It touched exactly in 6837. This could go either way. It will depend in US now

    1. Jack, Nick’s chart shows first drop from 6821, but this was broken morning itself. Till now that level is held.

      1. Do you mean that one that ended at 7.50 in the morning? It wasn’t much of the drop.
        I noticed that, Senu, it held. Dow is shooting to the start again.

      1. I am scared to enter any shorts on Dow at the moment, but it seems I will have no choice soon.

  19. FTSE still in a furrow, but just edged through ProRealTime’s R1 — might be wakening up.

  23. Still holding pms I think if it turns south it will do it with gusto.
    Belly went there in 1991 different place now I bet…..! Have fun hope you don’t wake up with a tattoo on your forehead..!

  25. Directional suicide – not up or down. It seems the general direction is still up but it doesn’t move there.

  26. dow dax snp falling but ftse not moving!whats going on!!short @6835 really need some points!

      1. Jim, which descending peaks ? that green line above just being touched today by the price, I one in my chart but it’s a trend line. Try to draw one…

  31. Anyone else still long with me? Nearly hit my limit today and should have taken my profit before it fell back but still a better day than at the open!

    1. DOW is almost close to the long term upper resistance trend line. SPX is again in overbought level, but far way from the upper long upper term resistance trend line.
      Since DOW is the leader, I do think we are almost there for a meaning correction.
      I think we may bounce a little further up, before we go down.
      My strategy now is to short in 1977 with small stake, as we are in a strong bull and every correction is swift and quick.

      1. But I could take a big stake in the long side, if I have the chance to catch a pullback in Monday.

  32. PMS — $25 bn/mth is a lot less than $85 bn/mth, but still a lot of dosh. Surely US bankers wouldn’t use that addition to their balance sheets to fund their own share (risk asset ) purchases, or to provide easy loans to their stockbroker friends for margin trading funding? At any rate, S&P 500 has being going a straight-line storm since January 2013. And, looking at the weekly view, it’s on the up right now, ‘overbought’ or not. Bernanke had a way of sending a market into a spin, which J Yellen so far has been careful not to emulate. But it’s only a matter of time — things are heating up — while the bankers make the most of what’s left of that magical QE!

  33. Jim, hate to chasse price. But this has been an impossible task.
    Till May the Markets seemed undecided, diferent from 2013. So more cautious. Now after that break in 1902, appears that we started again similar trend from 2013

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