6770, 6743, 6720 Support, 6791, 6822, 6839 Resistance

Good morning. Well the long off the pivot finally managed to get some points in the end – it looked a little dubious for a while. I fully closed it last night just before the 9pm US close at 6770. Overnight it hasn’t really done much, though there is some good support where we currently are – the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6771 and the daily pivot at 6770, so if they hold we might well get another leg up to 6790. The US raced ahead yesterday, as did the Dax, but the FTSE was seriously lagging. Will the FTSE catch up today or will the others drop back?

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for a two-week advance, after reports from U.S. housing to manufacturing showed the world’s largest economy is strengthening.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 148.72 as of 11:58 a.m. in Hong Kong, on course for a second week of gains. The gauge has risen 0.5 percent this week and is trading within 1 percent of a six-year high as investors await clues on the timing of U.S. interest-rate increases from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who speaks today at a Kansas City Fed conference inJackson Hole, Wyoming.

“Data was solid,” said Evan Lucas, a Melbourne-based markets strategist at IG Ltd. “U.S. home sales smashed estimates and held true month-on-month, while the Philly Fed manufacturing index also was stronger than estimated. This all gave the market another reason to continue to leg up.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose 0.4 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.6 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.3 percent and Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.2 percent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index (AS51) advanced 0.3 percent as Iluka climbed 3.4 percent to A$8.88 and Santos rose 3.8 percent to A$15.14. Taiwan’s Taiex index rallied 1.2 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average and the Topix index both slipped 0.3 percent.

Record Close
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent today after the gauge yesterday closed at a record high. After beginning August with the worst weekly decline in more than two years, U.S. equities have since recouped almost $900 billion in value, bolstered by easing tensions in Ukraine and speculation that central banks will keep interest rates low even as the economy shows signs of recovery.

While a report in the U.S. yesterday showed fewer Americans than forecast applied forunemployment benefits last week, tepid wage growth and slow inflation have given the Fed room to hold interest rates near zero.

U.S. Manufacturing
Data yesterday also showed existing home sales rose last month to the most since September, while the Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.9 percent. The Markit Economics preliminary index of U.S. manufacturing in August jumped to the highest level since April 2010.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We are not far off opening right on a couple of supports – the daily pivot at 6770 and the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6771. I can see a rise to 6791 today, but if the bulls do go for it, most likely fuelled by Yellens speech later to maybe push the S&P past 2000, then we could reach the top of the 20 day Bianca area at 6822. Above that, and the next resistance levels are 6839 then 6900. The S&P might stutter at 2003 if it were to break 2000. The trend is up though its a bit concerning that the FTSE was so laggy yesterday. If the FTSE were to break below 6770 today and that fairly key support, then 6740 and 6720 are the next supports.

11 Comments

  1. Jim
    The wedge on the FTSE daily is at a critical point. I was of the thinking we were on the last leg up, do you think we have one more leg down still?
    FTSE seems very tight like a coiled spring ready to break out….!

    1. I’m looking at 15 min. charts at the moment Marco; finding it difficult to decide. Dow is pointing down and ROC has eased. SMA 200 still strong in this timeframe though. Index could close in on SMA 200 at around 17000. As I see it FTSE has really flattened out in the last couple of days; since Tuesday, so is this a plateau with more upside to come, or a peak in advance of a slide? I guess I’m gravitating just now towards expecting some further weakness in the Dow ROC, which would impact on the FTSE no doubt . . .

      1. Jim
        I kind of agree that a pull back is due after such a run closed my longs this morning and am currently short Dow

  2. One guy said that :
    The S&P made a new high above 1991, the FTSE is still below its previous high, the bearish divergence between the two indexes continues. Given the sideways pattern over the last twelve months it seems that the FTSE will struggle to move above 6950. The FTSE is no longer in a bull market, it in a consolidation phase that is a slow reversal pattern. This will lead to a bear market.

    And my answer was that :

    “12 months in consolidation leads to a bear market “. Will be the 1st, the last two ones and usually any bear markets starts after a big leg up. Saw that in many stocks, and looking to FTSE in last bull markets, it is the same.
    Your sentence is based in your feeling and no factual to back it up.
    Why FTSE does not break the all time highs ??? Who knows…beats me… the red coats are always trying to do their own thing.

    And most important US leads all other markets. They say where they should move. FTSE can stay here forever until US starts a bear market

  3. One fact is that, Bear markets start when they start to low rates and bull markets start when they start to hike rates. That’s a fact.

    1. I would be more concerned if they would start thinking in lowering rates, not the opposite.

  4. The red coats will be on holiday next Monday.
    I see a Bull flag on daily chart, or is just me ?

  5. Think we will see 6800 plus by the end of next week which will then be a good chance to go short for the traditional September dip. We have had a good run up. Thinking we will see bit of a pullback in Sptemember maybe all the way to 6500. That will provide the springboard for a final positive quarter. At this stage to close the year at 7000 is just about still on.

  6. Hi

    I don’t think it will reach it till the final quarter. Most likely December. I think we will 6800 plus this week but then dip back down in September.

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