6762, 6723 Support, 6794,6808, 6850 Resistance

Good morning. What is it with July 2014 and trending days?! Another one way street yesterday that popped through the resistance levels then failed to reach the 6807 short order after all that! That 6808 is still resistance for today, though yesterdays high at 6794 is now the line in the sand in the near term. Yellen repeated her speech from Tuesday so the market didn’t need to react as much this time, though has come off a bit overnight. Todays pivot at 6762 should act as initial support, though looking at the S&P that wasn’t as strong as one would think after that FTSE action -though it popped above the 1982 resistance it didn’t really hold and has dropped back to 1975.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks were little changed, after the regional benchmark index briefly touched a six-year high, as material and industrial shares advanced, while technology firms retreated.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained less than 0.1 percent to 147.20 as of 12:32 p.m. in Hong Kong, paring gains of as much as 0.4 percent. About as many shares rose as fell. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen yesterday said asset valuations in general aren’t out of line with historical norms after the central bank the day before indicated prices for smaller U.S. social-media and biotechnology companies are substantially stretched.

“The market can still rally in front of an improvement in earnings,” Donald Williams, Sydney-based chief investment officer at Platypus Asset Management Ltd., which oversees about A$1.3 billion ($1.2 billion), said by phone. “With interest rates very low, equities are still a pretty good place to be. The thing that keeps holding up equity valuations is that bond yields are so low globally.”

Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix index gained 0.1 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.5 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index and Singapore’s Straits Times Index sank 1 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.2 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) of mainland Chinese stocks slipped 0.4 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.8 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index added 0.1 percent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent. The nation’s Senate voted to scrap a price on carbon today, dismantling a law introduced by the previous Labor government that initially charged polluters A$23 ($21.50) per ton of greenhouse gases emitted.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded at 13.5 times estimated earnings at the last close compared with 16.7 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Profit at members of the S&P 500 probably rose 4.5 percent in the three months through June, while sales gained 3.1 percent, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Futures on the S&P 500 declined 0.2 percent today after the U.S. equities benchmark rose 0.4 percent yesterday.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Yesterdays high of 6794 is the first level of resistance today, and we have the daily pivot at 6762 to act as support on this dip we have had overnight. Updating the Bianca channels with yesterday figures gives us a new channel high on the 10 day at 6793 – the same level it topped at yesterday. There is a pretty decent rising channel on the 30minute chart, with the top at 6803 ands the bottom at 6720ish, along with that red PRT line at 6723. A move below this level would invalidate the rising potentials and a drop to 6636 is on the cards. The main news of note is at 10am, with Eurozone CPI, expected at 0.8%.

So, today I am thinking this initial overnight dip will find support at 6762 daily pivot, then put in a bounce, which will either stall at 6787 where we have the falling PRT line from yesterdays high, or push on to 6808 and the top of the 20 day Bianca channel at 6834.

70 Comments

  1. 4hr just about to turn south, working off the 1hr once we have Brocken through 200ma we always retest it, so I am going for a trip down to 6742 ish before bouncing up through 6794.
    Still got my short open from last night and order to go long at 6742

  2. I m short from 6761. Bit late but am hoping to see 6700. Had a short on S&P overnight and banked it for 5pips.

  6. Hi All
    Been following this site for a couple of months now, find it very useful to get other people’s opinions on the markets. Been trading for a couple of months as well. Did well at the start but gave up most of my profit in the last couple of weeks due to my own mistakes. Need to get it back so placing small trades only until I get my funds back to where it needs to be. Just wanted to say hi.

  14. Dimp I do not see this going down in fact it should head up to 6760 for US open then 6800 next stop AIMHO

  17. Hi rob f I’m the same new to site and liking the community on hear too. I’m only doing very little trades and getting more experience and confidence.

  23. Thanks Javed

    Any thoughts on DOW open, reckon will go up to at least 17110 but been wrong most of the week so not sure….

  32. Good call Marco. I got on ftse at S2 (6729) and still enjoying the ride! Been taking profits at regular intervals.

    1. I looked at your trade closely. You took it when the market was still rising and against EMA. You also took it straight after US open which has a history of creating uptrusts for people who are shorting. At 2.30 it was still a rising trend and it just did a little bounce and didn’t even take the previous higher low. There was not sign for short then.
      It is only later at 18.30 the first short trade should have been initiated by my strategy which I am testing, at approx your price anyway. Before that the picture wasn’t clear. The bold entry short at 16.00 (approx 17127) would be adventurous (SL 151), you can see RSI was falling on 10-15 min, EMA were curling, maybe some indicators starting to reverse, however for me it is like shorting the top. Who knows where’s the top?

  38. Back in long at 6735 struggled to get through 6766 reason for pull back to get momentum for another go..:

  43. And RIP to those innocent people, that were in the wrong place at the wrong time. Those Russians are animals.

    1. I am really scared, I am soon to fly that direction. Luckily not over Ukraine but at the bordering country. Quite petrified to be honest.

  50. 4hrs chart MACD on gold and DOW turning around, perfectly poised for indices to drop and gold to gain. We are in July and, sad news, passenger aircraft shot down could act as trigger for sell off.

  52. Expecting at least 1% fall tomorrow given the miners in Index offset slightly by the rising oil companies perhaps. Think 6600 is definitely back on the cards next week as both Ukraine & Gaza escalate.

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