6750 then 6730 support; 6796 6809 resistance

Good morning. Maybe it was a bit optimistic expecting the bulls to reach 6845 yesterday though they did try and climb from the pivot area at 6800 but only reached 6825 before the bears took control. The S&P did manage to pretty much reach the 1968 before dropping – all the way to 1949 where there is a bit of support. The FTSE hit the 6750 area late in the day but that level has held ok overnight. As you know I have this as support, though if that goes this morning the next level is 6730, possibly 6715. The latter should hold, though a lot depends on jitters over the Middle East.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, led by material shares, as escalating violence in the Middle East sapped demand for riskier assets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP)dropped 0.3 percent to 144.35 as of 12:32 p.m. in Tokyo, with eight of its 10 industry groups declining. The gauge has slid since reaching a six-year high on June 19. U.S. stocks closed lower after the Wall Street Journal reported that Syrian warplanes struck targets in western Iraq, killing at least 50 people.

“A surge in oil prices can weigh on the global economy and that’s why the Iraqi conflict gets attention,” said Osamu Koizumi, Tokyo-based executive officer at Meiji Yasuda Asset Management Co. “Investors want to sell into the market near a high level, but I don’t think a correction will be big because fundamentals are good.”

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are on course for a 3.9 percent jump this month and closed at a nine-month high on June 20.

Japan’s Topix (TPX) index fell 0.3 percent. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said deflation has ended in Japan and will be thwarted by new government policies designed to encourage business expansion. His ruling party will seek to pass a law in the next session of parliament to legalize casinos as part of a plan to boost tourism before the Tokyo Olympics in 2020, the premier said in an interview yesterday.

Regional Indexes
South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.6 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.7 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.3 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.1 percent. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland stocks traded in the city dropped 0.4 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.5 percent. Taiwan’s Taiex index fell 0.1 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index added 0.2 percent.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.1 percent today. The measure declined 0.6 percent yesterday following the Wall Street Journal report on the Syrian air strike. Earlier, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was in Iraq seeking to prod the country’s leaders to unite against an al-Qaeda offshoot that has seized control over areas of the country, OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer.

U.S. Recovery
Data showed purchases of new homes in the U.S. rose in May by the most in 22 years, indicating the industry is rebounding from a winter-induced lull at the start of the year. The Conference Board’s index of U.S. consumer confidence increased to 85.2 in June from 82.2 a month earlier, the New York-based private research group said yesterday.

The U.S. government’s third revision to the gross domestic product reading, due today, is expected to show a contraction of 1.8 percent in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. A reading last month had the economy shrinking 1 percent.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6796, so if the 6750 levels holds initially this morning I am thing that we will get a rise to that area before declining again. There is a bit of worry over the Middle East which is effecting prices, though gold isn’t racing away since climbing to the 1320 level – usually a good bell-weather of what indices are going to do next. I am still thinking that this 6750 level will hold, as talked about yesterday, as we are at the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel, and while I am writing the 10 minute chart has just gone bullish based on my moving average settings.

Below 6750 we have the Bianca channels at 6730, and a worst case low of 6715 which should hold. On the upside, above the pivot 6809 is resistance and a break of that will work wonders for the bulls for a further push higher. A long today is the safer play for a bounce back after those declines, from the supports at 6750, 6730 and 6715.

141 Comments

  3. What is your target Marco ?
    The weak close in US, had as usually a contagious effect. So it was very normal to open like this in the morning. Let’s see at middle of morning if FTSE bounces.

  5. we have a huge gap from yesterday. The smallest one is in the daily, with a minimum trade yesterday at 6776. Today we already reach 6764. So 12 points for the smallest. 23 points for the yesterday’s close

  6. Pm when it didn’t bounce around 4.30 this morning I thought it might test bottom first.
    Looking for a bounce to 6770

  7. Not in yet M, not sure what it wants to do from it’s current level. How about you Marco?

  9. I am long at 54 and will look to short again around 6765-6770
    Went in too early as it looks like it could still touch 6731 before bounce

  27. Hey guys
    Havent been here for a while.
    Wanted to pop by quickly and give an update..
    Recent havent traded ftse much as its been super range bound.
    I have now got a good reversal signal indicating a down move yesterday.. i am short small from 6770 and now looking to add..prob around 6750 (havent added at that level as i type)

  34. FTSE/5 mins retreating in descending ϵ-channel — heading now for ≈ 6735 I think. Dow/5 mins. in weakly ascending ϵ-channel following yesterday’s plunge.

  47. Marco please don’t get me wrong but going long here isn’t it going against the trend?

  48. Lol. Missed that short yesterday in a good price. Macd closed yesterday in negative territory with RSI, since a while.

  49. Dimp
    I’m still learning what to do but weekly chart 50ma support, daily 100ma support all at 6730. So yes trend is down just anticipating a bounce up here when it hits support. Also needs tj close the gap on yesterdays low although not always the case.
    Finally King Nick sais support here so put it all together and pray. ….:)

    1. Marco 50ma in weekly is at 6656 and the 100ma daily is at 6720. Which chart you use ? cash or futures ?

  50. And the trend is strong now. No decent bounce… huge gap between 6764 and 6787.
    When will be filled ? In the next uptrend after touching 6700 or this is going to the longer term trend line at 6650+- ?
    DOW is going for 16700 to touch that strong longer term uptrend line

    1. I use prorealtime end of the day charts and and I do not see those numbers. THis is why I was asking

      1. you tell me how can a guy feels, exiting a position at 1898 in SPX on a Friday afternoon with a long weekend elections/Ukraine and bank holiday in US ? and even seeing that slope in 50 ma turning positive and thinking…well no problem, I will enter next week after that huge bounce…

        1. waiting for some kind of pullback, minor at least… but nothing. Broke with huge gap and never looked back.

          1. Reminds me once, when I traded DAX. An indice that had the habit of filling gaps… and one day it leave it open, waiting to fill and never again filled. Since than DAX started to leave many unfilled gaps, going to the moon. This was I think 1 or 2 years ago. I stopped trading there and found FTSE

  56. The problem now is that I see DOW going for that uptrend line from start of year and touches now at 16700. Once there, here we go again for a huge bounce. 17000 is a magnetic round number

  58. I didn’t make the same mistake as yesterday – going short on US open. That was predictable they would mess the things up, they did. I’m hind-sighting today. I almost understand why I shouldn’t have gone short yesterday, however it indicated for me a short (higher lows, indicators – maybe for this reason the fall happened later and that long was an uptrust thing or something). But there were some things that don’t stuck up so I think I need to learn from that.
    What I could have done for trade management is not to impulse into the new trades. Yes, my initial SL worked, but I instantly took other trades to the same direction, those without SL. So even having SL doesn’t always mean you will not mess up when in anger and frustration.

      1. by the way, that handle in C&H pattern looks very awesome today. Let’s see if does not mess it up

  66. If I know FTSE is that it likes to visit again the low levels to wipe out comfortable positions, before resuming

  68. The FTSE daily downtrend channel is being respected (6710-6810 range).

    Looking to short at the upper boundary, after exiting this trade

  69. My short placed at 6810 yesterday, still looks reasonable, not today, but if US bounces today, maybe in next days.

  70. I guess the big boys already knew the news about GDP yesterday and so the sold off was yesterday.

    1. that was also my perception today. YOu need to look at economic calendar with a day ahead and see the forecasts and then embrace the charts and prices.

  74. Marco, if you like to hold for a day or two, you might be for a sweet surprise. In the other hand, it could be the opposite. The lower boundary of the channel could be tested again and again for a couple of days, but the upper boundary will be visit. It’s a matter of time. 6810 today, 6800 tomorrow and so on

  75. Good day all. Hope some of you guys cashed in… Noticed a few guys are trying to buy though they gave been waiting for the sell so long ago… Taken out 50% position looking to resell if we get to the 6800 mark. Likewise for DAX 9950, still haven’t seen a good down day yet…

  76. And annother catch. If you notice, yesterday, US did bounce in the early hours and started to sell afterwards, changing it’s timing from sell-buy, to buy-sell. Let+s see if this timing is changed again today, to the old days

  78. we have an IHS in the shorter time frames with 6746+- neckline (6716 head) and 6776 target

    1. Yes, I noticed and have been following your posts. I hoped that the price would drop for you. But kind of thought that they are not likely to repeat what was yesterday, that would be so easy for us. ):

      1. To be honest charts look bearish so it’s still a chance it may go down.
        I didn’t trade today because of the yesterday, didn’t want a repeat. But when it shoot up I thought about long but it would be a counter trade for me, I don’t like those. GL

  83. I had a bad day as well belly. It was all going good and eyes off the computer for few hours and all messed up…..

  85. Honestly hats off to those who can swing trade these volatile markets. Specially only on 4H and higher.

  86. It’s sort of stagnating now which direction does everyone see it going. Depending on what I look at I see up and I see down

  87. Just respect the downtrend channel. Buy in lower boundary zone and sell in the upper.
    The Prorealtime has a channel that comes from the top and the upper boundary is now at 6850+-. I prefer a more modest channel that started JUN9 with 6810+-. The lower boundary are the same. It’s respecting it and also 6725 hold. So it may bounce now. All depends in US. If they stay flat, it would be better for tomorrow

    1. Hi Senu,

      Hope you had a good trading day. I’m not too sure what this means, please could you tell me what POMO day is?

      Cheers 🙂

  90. Pomo is when the fed either buy or sell positions to make more or less available to the banks

    1. Ah I see, so in this instance it was a sell because DOW dropped towards the end of close, is that right?

  95. I see us heading up to 6790. Still holding my 2 longs from yesterday for big rise today…!

  97. Has come from the low of 6715. Would look to close the month around 6700 otherwise we may be stuck in this range for another month.
    Certainly feel though there should be a negative bias here for the next few weeks. Having said that last time it got to these levels it rallied up past 6830. However rallies do look weak at present and are good selling opportunities.
    I’m still targetting 6600 – 6625 for the end of July.

  102. Wow Dow just gapped down over 60 points, I was long minutes earlier before closing so was so lucky

    1. Wow I bought, it just gapped back up and I’ve made around 50 points in 2 minutes!!!

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