Good morning. I had my long order set at 6780 yesterday which with the spread on IG missed by 0.3. I know some other platforms hit it as they had slightly different prices. Anyway, the low was 6779.8 and we got the bounce as expected, hitting the 6822 level right on the bell, enabling the short for a few more after the close. Whilst the S&P dropped off the 2005 area, the FTSE has stayed quite buoyant around the 6815 area overnight. Todays pivot is 6808 so initial support there, and with the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6796 we might get a bit more bull yet, though resistance is 6829. Positive news out of the US yesterday with data on durable goods and consumer confidence, which helped the S&P stay above 2000. How much longer though?
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose after U.S. data on durable goods and consumer confidence boosted optimism in the strength of the world’s largest economy.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) gained 0.1 percent to 148.52 as of 12:32 p.m. in Hong Kong, with the gauge trading within 1 percent of a six-year high. More than $1.1 trillion has been added to the value of the world’s equities this month, with global shares now worth a record $66 trillion. Orders for U.S. durable goods jumped in July by the most on record, while American consumer confidence reached the highest level in almost seven years.
“The U.S. economy is progressively strengthening,” Matthew Sherwood, Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $29 billion, said in an e-mail. “Earnings expectations are not challenging, valuations are at average levels, buybacks are continuing and the Fed will maintain its highly supportive monetary policy. U.S. rates are set to remain extremely low for another two years at least.”
Regional Gauges
South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.2 percent and Taiwan’s Taiex index advanced 0.8 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.7 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index and India’s S&P BSE Sensex Index both increased 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index increased 0.1 percent as Boral surged 4.5 percent to A$5.63. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.2 percent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) was little changed while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland Chinese firms traded in the city advanced 0.5 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.2 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased 0.4 percent after yesterday closing at a three-year high.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today after the gauge yesterday closed above 2,000 for the first time.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded at 13.7 times estimated earnings yesterday compared with 16.8 for the S&P 500 and 15.5 for the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
FTSE Outlook
The FTSE has held up pretty well overnight, despite the S&P dipping back from its high. Now that has broken the 2003 level, 2007 is the next one of interest, though i have read some (maybe a tad wild!) predictions of 2025 coming soon. Back to the FTSE and there is still decent 30 minute channel in play, and with the pivot suggesting support at 6808 initially we may see a bit of a climb from the off. Below the pivot then the bottom of the 10 day Bainca is 6796, then 6748 below that area. I am more inclined to think that the pivot area will hold (bottom of the channel is around 6800, hence the slightly wider stop. Might be worth a small long at the pivot at then add at 6797 in fact. If the bulls do charge again today then 6829 is the initial resistance, with 6854 and 6863 above that. We are ask nearing the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6876, which could tally with the S&P at 2007?
Well Nicks prediction has removed any chance of my trade working . Oh well will try later
Oh dear…..
Pretty flat though this morning. Got a short on at 6828 currently
Cant beleive i am so wrong all the time.
Just cant seem to understand this trading game at all.
T_T
When you start out you need to use the patent pending “OTS”, Opposite Trading Strategy. Do all your analysis and what you think tis going to do from what levels and then do the opposite. 🙂
RC –
Assume you are always wrong unless the markets prove you right ..(to quote by someone who I can’t remember).
What is your strategy ? It should be one line of text not a book…
If you find you’re always wrong…consider this …why not use an average e.g. 30 period moving average on a 5 min chart – use the direction up or down to dictate your trade in the knowledge that you’re going to use it as a stop if it falls below that line. That way you know precisley what your risk is and that you are trading in the direction of the trend which is different to counter trend trading. Obviously try and buy as close to the average line as possible to minimise your risk.
Does anybody else have this feeling.
Whatever trade i think the market will play — place a trade in the opposite direction
Notice a few of you saying we will have a dip in September my thought are maybe middle to end of September but at the moment I can only see this bullishness running into September, the last sell off was caused more by geographical issue which seem to be improving now.
Still think we will test the gap up on Dow around the 16400 mark. This rise has been in no volume and at some point there will be a crashing realisation QE wot solve the low growth crisis, imo. German c.conf down again and no world risks this week with dangling of QE.
Once they realise that Italy’s growth downgrade has not worked despite all the money pumped and need for interest rates to rise soon the Dow and therefore ftse will have a torrid time.
Everyone is bullish at the moment, including financial press which for me means only one thing is around the corner.
It’s going to be bumpy!
Just need the BBC sell signal – Robert piston saying how well the economy is doing and lots of positive looking charts. And the reverse for the buy signal. Also a newspaper article “is now the time to buy shares?”
I wonder what impact Scots will make on ftse on 18th Sept 🙂
Haha, exactly nick. Just seen Italian confidence has followed Germans below expectations. Expect those time to buy/rate rise means we are returning to normality headlines soon.
Marketwatch is very bullish atm, which usually tallys with a big drop on the horizon.
Despite Draghi hints of all out QE I think we are in a better position that that requires and therefore a toppy market just needs to cool down. S&P, especially at ridiculous levels imo.
Once market cottons on to fact that more QE will not mean more ‘growth’ the real bear market should begin. Dow has has nowhere near the German 10% correction. Think that is possible.
I do think Europe QE, will extend/sustain this market.
But until the QE is effective (which could be only in end of the year, if it comes), the markets maybe drop again.
We need a reason for that drop and we have not yet (geopolitical/economics)
I read a guy saying that markets will start dropping next week.
Reason was people coming from holidays to take profits from this low volume bull.
Could be this the trigger, if indeed people comeback and start selling.
It could be the opposite
Haha I remember three-four weeks ago before the drop the ‘I’ and the guardian on the same day newspaper was saying buy the day after it tumbled 80 points lol.
If we have a weekly close above 6860, the odds of a huge drop decrease drastically
PMSInvestor….everything else being equal that is normally what happens…..the BSDs come back from holiday…..thank their juniors for not mucking it up too badly while they werr away….and then analyse and churn.
Typically would expect some selling pressure in September especially ironically if there isn’t huge uncertainty already.
did you close your long positions ? or wait for another bounce to 6870 ?
Been flat all day, hopefully DOW will add some impetus…
Bull is getting weaker, but I still think Dow should touch 17230 in meanwhile.
Here comes the bears, imo.
PMSInvestor. I’m staying long till the end of the week.
DAX will probably see 9800 tomorrow/Friday where I will look to close my longs and start thinking about shorts.
Well, didn’t call that one. Bulls in charge yet again.
FTSE 4 hrs. — It’s all looking a bit more positive now. I’m less worried about a series of declining peaks; the series is righting itself, but a potential vote for Scottish independence is a major issue. I am hoping for a ‘non-event’, so far as the FTSE is concerned, but Salmond was at his slippery worst/best on Monday night, depending on how you look at it. 😀
SMA 200 is on the up now and LinReg 20 and 100 are pushing towards 6850, at least. I shall not be thinking short until my growth indicator, which is looking healthy, drops into negative territory.
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE100DFB_zps7c7cd86f.png
Thanks Jim…..I would say we are fairly neutral at the moment. Very tight range today…..and small volumes this week as you would expect in the holiday season.
As for Scottish Independence…..I am actually for the yes campaign….not that I’m actually bothered. It’s just my view that all the major economic and political decisions are made on a global basis and predominantly by supranationals. Old unions like UK have little bearing and Westminister politicians little effect on the key things which affect our lives. So better to devolve power to lowest level and join the EU…..my 2 penneth.
But we can all see with FTSE how much of is driven by global economic / geo-political issues and how much by what a Westminister politician has to say about Levison for example.
But I expect Scotland to vote No….which could be a short lived shot in the arm for the FTSE ……or at least not a sell off. However still expecting a dip in mid Sept / early Oct.
Hugh and nick
Thanks for your views to my remarks first thing in the day
I have just turned on the charts and see how its fooled me again囧
Looks like its all the same and more of the same again@_@
Fooling me is the easiest thing to do:-(
Missed a lovely scalp at 14.30 due to being out and apparently internet didn’t work at all.
It bounced off 61.8% neatly at 15.00 (DOW)
Is this the start as Russia invade again?