6740’ish support today. 6825 Resistance. NFP later though!

Good morning. I got back late last night so just a brief post with the FTSE levels to look for. Will be back to the full posts on Monday.

Its non Farm payrolls out of the US later (13:30 UK time) so expect volatility then.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, with the regional index heading for a fourth weekly increase, as bond risk fell to the lowest in 11 weeks before U.S. jobs data today. Corn jumped to a six-month high and Indonesia’s rupiah gained.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5 percent by 3:19 p.m. in Tokyo, extending a global rally that added $523 billion to equities this week through yesterday.Japan’s Topix index climbed 0.7 percent and Hong Kong shares fluctuated.Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX)futures rose 0.1 percent and Australian bond yields rose the most in two weeks. The rupiah strengthened to the highest since November. Corn gained amid concern supplies may be disrupted by tensions over Russia’s actions in Ukraine.

Global stocks are trading at their most expensive level this year, with MSCI’s gauge of world equities up 0.7 percent in a fifth week of gains, as concern eases that Russia’s incursion into Ukraine will spark a broader conflict. Economists project payrolls data will show hiring rose last month to a level below last year’s average amid frigid weather.China’s onshore bond market had its first default today as the country’s top lawmakers hold their annual policy-setting meeting in Beijing.

“We have a temporary relief as the situation in Ukraine seems to be contained so the markets are unwinding risk premiums,” said Wee-Khoon Chong, Singapore-based head of rates strategy Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc., Japan’s largest brokerage. “In the U.S., most bad data seems to be related to bad weather, implying the outlook remains relatively good. We don’t think China’s first onshore default will have a systemic financial risk. It might boost market confidence because allowing a default could be seen a part of reforms.”

Payrolls Survey

Non-farm payrolls in the U.S. probably increased by 149,000 workers in February while the unemployment rate held at 6.6 percent, according to the median of economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Payrolls climbed by a monthly average of 193,500 in 2013. Data yesterday showed claims for unemployment benefits fell to a three-month low last week, stoking speculation U.S. companies are confident economic growth will rebound after harsh winter weather depressed demand.

FTSE Outlook

Bianca Trends
Bianca Trends

FTSE Levels to watch today:

Support

  • 6770
  • 6742
  • 6715

Resistance

  • Daily pivot at 6788
  • 6820
  • 6858
  • 6911

Possible long at 6740 today, stop 6728 – off the bottom of the Bianca 20 day Channel, but only if 6770 breaks.

77 Comments

  1. Where’s an arrow chart, Nick? I hope you are not giving up on plotting it for us, it is helpful although you think it may not be accurate sometimes. I does help. Thanks.

    1. Oh, I’ve just read your message above, we are looking forward to your arrow charts next week 🙂 Happy to have you back.

  5. Hash shooting star on sp500 last night so agree with your thoughts or pull back coming

  6. Well im loaded with Shorts from this morning on DAX / FTSE / DOW… All stops to b/e but im seeing lower regardless of result. Just my opinion

      1. Patience my friend… IMHO we’ve seen the highs today. I bought some PUTS for DAX as we are going down by end of day.

        1. However cautious about entering a long lasting longs at the moment.
          If Dow opens with the spike up, everything will be finished for me, no decent pull backs.

  8. Finding it hard to tell where it wants to go from this 6790 level, just seems to be hovering

  9. This market looks all set for a large move down. I would not be surprised if we get to the lows of today and more today

  11. well I am confused, FTSE dropping Dow sitting again. No trades for me atm. Was looking for a nice long but now…. not so sure looking at FTSE

  13. Looks like we are going to have a 20 point move on the S&P – which means I have moved my Ftse targets to just below 6700

    1. Got some more Orders to sell at 6770 – Last gasp of the market – looks like before it moves south

  14. I don’t want any more longs, just managed to get of one on Dow, no thanks. +10 but lucky to be out.

    1. It’s tempting to go long now, honestly. But Friday and too high imho. My gut instinct saying keep out.

  15. 30 more points to go to my target – All is looking OK – Loaded on more at 6740 & also 6735 – Stops on earlier Trades 6770 & 6755 at B/E at 6770 & 6755

        1. OK the market just answered my question haha I took what I thought was a risk short from 6730 but thats looking pretty good now, thanks Sally

  17. Glad your Back Nick
    Hope your guy’s listen to you better..
    and hope they have made lots of money Today…..!

    I Did mention yesterday the S&P500 was expecting to 1888/90 before a drop,
    Although I thought we may smash it and get to 1892 before the drop..

    The dax Filled it’s gap as mentioned at 9360 level so good day by all..

  18. Stops all at B/E on all my positions
    With hoping to come out of all at just around 700 or below

  19. Coward !! – came out of all of them at 6710 – £ 2100 – Had me clinching to the chair – the last 20 points – but feels good

  22. Thanks Guys. But I was actually at the edge of my seat.
    No I presently do not subscribe to Nick.

    1. incredible trade…what a way to start the weekend I also gained 20 points so thanks for my £40 ha!

    1. No usually I am a Day trader – & infact this was only a day trade. I did not want to hold it overnight.

      1. You made 36 points at £500 per point. It’s a big position. Is this a live or demo account? You need a lot of money to fund such a position. How much cash do you have to fund such a position and what’s the loss you’re willing to take if it goes the wrong way?

        Also if it’s real money, why did you close the position early? Aren’t you gutted about missing out on the other 40 points down? You could have closed a part of the trade and let your profits run on the rest with a trailing stop.

        You could have easily made 36k instead of 18k

        1. All in hindsight….
          Yes I could keep it, but was not willing to lose the profit. It’s a guaranteed 18k. I still have my medium term trades open, so are making the money there 🙂

          Stop loss was -6k

          Equity now at 138k, so could afford the loss. Like I said, it’s a one time trade, don’t do them often.

          1. thanks for your reply. So you use a live account then? How long did it take you to build to that level and how much did you start with? Your sums are impressive.

  27. Lol, bagged an £18k trade today. Good day all round.

    Hope everyone had the success…

    1. I vary, this was the biggest trade I ever took, normally I do 10k contracts. This was 5 times as much.
      I don’t take these risks often, this is my first this year…

    1. Keep them 😉
      Just keep a wide enough stop for any gap fills on Monday. Next week should be generally bearish.

    1. Both. Today I opened a day trade. My first this week. The others I have open for a while now.

      I like the mid term stuff more. Easier to trade. Daily swings can be risky, specially on volalitile days like today 🙂

  33. I just started swing trading. Could you tell me were I can get more info on it pls. Need to learn a lot
    Thanks.

  35. Well, Nick would definitely be a good starting point. He has a book to buy and some very useful links on this website. Just look around 🙂
    If you can afford it, you could sign up to his live chat and daily updates etc. for a starter that is serious I would definitely consider it. Don’t rush into any trades too quick 🙂

    Gl

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