Good morning. Nice to finally get some support levels holding, though it was the lowest one that really came good and get a couple of long trades make some points. 6712 held for a bit but the 6695 long was the better one. 6726 got stopped for -6. I ended up closing most of the long last night at 6725. Yellen confirmed the end of QE in October, leaving the path open for interest rates to be the main tool to control the economy.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks outside Japan rebounded from losses as China’s trade expanded, while the U.S. oil benchmark-contract slipped toward a record losing streak amid rising supplies. Indonesian stocks and the rupiah jumped after a presidential election.
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index, which dropped the most since April 25 yesterday, added 0.4 percent by 12:37 p.m. inTokyo. The Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent after a 1.6 percent plunge yesterday. West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery lost 0.5 percent, a 10th decline that’s the longest slump since trading began in 1983. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futuresfell 0.1 percent. The rupiah climbed and stocks in Jakarta hit the highest in a year as unofficial counts showed the city’s Governor Joko Widodo won the presidency.
Chinese exports rose a less-than-forecast 7.2 percent in June, while the trade surplus came in more than $5 billion below economists’ estimate of $36.95 billion, which would have been the highest since January 2009. U.S. data showed crude supplies rose last week, while demand for gasoline ebbed, exacerbating declines in oil fueled by waning concern over the Iraq conflict and signs Libya will boost shipments. The Bank of Englanddecides rates before a U.S. jobless claims report.
“Extreme cautiousness towards China’s economy has receded overall, with the government showing signs it will step in to support growth when needed,” said Mari Oshidari, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Okasan Securities Group Inc.
China Data
China’s overseas shipments fell short of the 10.4 percent expansion that was the median of 47 economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Imports grew by 5.5 percent in June, also falling short of the 6 percent increase projected. The trade surplus fell to $31.6 billion for June, from $35.92 in May. Data yesterday showed producer prices fell last month at the slowest pace in more than two years.
Economic growth is still too weak in China to halt intervention in the yuan and capital flows aren’t steady enough to warrant changes to the way the currency is managed, Lou Jiwei, the country’s finance minister, told reporters yesterday in Beijing amid economic talks with the U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew said moving to a market-determined yuan exchange rate will be a “crucial step” in helping drive China’s growth.
USA
In the U.S. yesterday, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June 17-18 meeting showed policy makers were concerned investors were becoming too complacent over the economic outlook and risk taking.
While policy makers agreed their asset-purchase program would end with a final cut of $15 billion at their October meeting should the economy progress as expected, they noted that “monetary policy needed to continue to promote the favorable financial conditions required to support the economic expansion.”
The S&P 500 (SPX) rose for the first day this week, closing at 1,972.83, while yields on two-year Treasury notes dropped three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to a one-week low of 0.48 percent in New York.
FTSE Outlook
After dipping to the bottom support at 6696 we did manage a bit of a bounce – the first time this week support has seen some action! Been a very frustrating week this one, with trending days galore! The FTSE needs to rise above 6747 for any sort of further upside. Prior to that we have resistance at 6724 and 6732.If 6747 isn’t broken today then I think we are pretty much on a path to 6610 over the next few sessions, IF 6691 breaks. Worth a short at 6747 today if it gets there with a tight stop in case it doesn’t break and we do get another leg down.
On a more bullish note, if 6747 does break then we should be on for a rise to 6777 and 6800. Can the bulls pull the rabbit out the hat today and break that resistance? The Bianca channel bottoms haven’t moved too much lower since yesterdays levels, sitting at 6693 and 6699 today. 6690 also has both Raff channels at that level. We are also just above the daily pivot at 6717 as I write this, technically a weak bull sign, along with a very lacklustre EMA cross on the 30minute chart
Dam closed out that’s yesterday’s gains all wiped out. Going to take Senu tactic and bank from now on .. Grrrrr
Oh no marco. Well at least no loss.
Still holding long from this morning at 6723 and Dow long from last night..
Still expecting a rise Dimp
You in yet?
Yes went long at 6717. Hammer on 3H chart. But it seems to go down now. 🙁
4hr looking for turn but1hr down
Holy shot stopped out need to take better notice of 30 min and 1hour charts.
Wow what a drop.
I made a mistake. Didn’t put a stop. Now massively in red.
It wants to go lower than S3
Mmmm does anyone else feel FTSE falling through 6690 is a sign its broken
lol Massive drop
stops hitting badly.
marco, still holding dow?
Senu I am but its only a £1 stake looking for a bounce before I decide what to do with it.
Just gone long at 6665
Yes even I added to my long at 6660.
Marco what would be your target.
I want to know how Isaac knew we would hit 6660…..
even Hugh was behind 6670
Hi Senu – I new I had to go out this morning so had limits all set – I’m Long now 6670 – hoping for 6720 area.
DJI 4 hour / RSI – I’m hoping that might suggest that it is possible we bounce off this area. (Nothin’s ever certain !)
Dimp
Am expecting a bounce off the 200ma on 4hr for the Dow so lets say am expecting bounce back up this afternoon
Thanks marco. I hope so. I will close even at break even.
Hugh
Where did you come up with the figure of 6670 yesterday?
Marco – I think I just picked out that is/was a clustered area – hoping that support would be around here…
Guys, anything sense a 2% fall today?
anyone*
Gutted, only now managed to get to computer. Yesterday evening when it reached 61.8% I thought this is a good time to go short, but then I thought Na,, I will make a mistake again, but it’s temping to go short now. I will wait for a signal, we are in a bullish market etc….
I wish I did.
Now, it’s too late, however there’s a possibility to catch a further declines after 14.30 maybe.
It may easily fall down to 6500 soon. Dow is going to 16750 I hope.
lol. A minor bank in Portugal is causing all this turmoil. Only to take a lesson how money is buoyed by confidence, even by the slightest influence as the one we are seeing. Espirito Santo is nothing. Never wanted anything with them, never trusted in Salgado/Ricciardi. Now the rotten tomatoes are appearing in the surface :D.
Looking to FTSE, am looking for a small test entry with 12 points stop. Had at 6650, moved to 6645 at S3 with 6633 stop
Jobless claims today. Let’s see where that pushes the market.
I think we are done with the bull run. We the markets were making all time high the gold had fallen to 2 years low. Now slowing heading up again. So any rallies would be short lived.
Closed 1 long at breakeven. Still holding the one from 6717.
Happy days. Closed DAX for 158pips this week and ftse 70.
Javed, you closing some of your positions or expecting more?
Wow Dow is going to open nearly 200 points down from close I reckon we going to see one hell of a bounce
Order trigered at 6845
lol 6645
Just gone long Dow 16814
Marco what’s your target?
dow short @ 16860
If I look through all the charts on Dow can’t see this dropping in fact see it going to 16980 on 30 min chart she is just firing up yeehaaa
Stop at b/e.
Will 200 ma hold in daily chart at 6684 ? Let’s see the close
Painful start but happy again 🙂
No one testing a long in FTSE ? All by myself ?
My b/e for all 3 positions now is at 6753. But if this candles hold and reverse with the 200 ma below, I might had hit the jackpot.
But too early :
1st- FTSE todays close
2nd- US todays close
3rd – Follow trough tomorrow
then MAYBE my order at 6645 will hold
If not :
will try in another place
Pms I am long FTSE as well as Dow
GL for both of us
Stop at 6645 for this 3rd order (B/E)
Pms I m still holding the long from 6717. Closed my 6660 earlier at break even. Now regretting it.
Marco are you still holding ftse from 6723?
I might close this 3rd order if it closes below the 200 ma
Dimp no that got stopped out on plunge this morning but went long at 6662 so with that and Dow more than made up:)
Well done Marco! Dow should pick up again shortly and head for 16950. 😀
The downward channel from May hold with another pin. But below 200 ma. Very weak, but lets see the US close and if we see some rebound tomorrow
Bloody hell. What a day. I was smug as could be this morning! Slap.
Was close to an account busting loss this morning, margin notice etc. had to close some off but still long ftse S&P and Dow but big big loss today.
Mainly thanks it seems to Espírito Santo International, would you believe?
lol. Unbelievable but true. sell, Sell, SEll, SELLLLLLLL.
buy, Buy, BUy, BUYYYYYYY 😀
Ftse and dow going in opposite direction!!!
how is that ? FTSE is holding…
Yeah that’s what I meant. FTSE is not climbing as proportional to DOW.
Will looks to close all positions later, which should mean they will continue up over night…!
Thanks Jim Day rescued 🙂
Wonder if plunge this morning was an excuse to clear out positions before climb up …
dow close below 16860 will take it to 16750
lol.. climbing fast 🙂
50 MA in daily chart doing a positive divergence with price
so dow has recovered 140 points and what has fuse done….
ftse*
even dax didn’t do much
Wow what run still holding …:)
good one marco.
What a day? Well kind of…….the previous few months have perhaps lulled us all into a false sense of security. The VIX was at a 7 year low last week. So even this rather limited bumpy daily ride seems like a rollercoaster but 2007 – 2013 it ain’t. However good to have some volatility back.even if way below historical averages….we have missed you.
The sell off in the morning completely threw me as it must have most people…..but then most triggers tend to come from leftfield. Is this the start of something more significant? I don’t think so. Expect us to rally a bit tomorrow…and then continue limited falls next week when my initial target of 6600 may well be hit. If we do then I will revise my target for the end of the month to 6535.
Ahwab….I’m holding – I only trade at the end of a month….or possibly when the market moves away from to average my cost. However try to keep my discipline and not submit to that temptation.
GLA
Might regret this again tomorrow morning but going to hold through as another 50 points on the Dow
Everyone else see the wedge formed on the DOW AND FTSE 4hr which is a down trend wedge shape meaning break out to the upside coming…….
Mcad on 4hr ready to cross over to upside. Question is do we dip this morning and start rise this afternoon or rise from the bell. We are above pivot all night if we can break 6690 its on if not will have to wait for Dow to open. Looking hopeful though for a punch up.