6711 to break today?

Good morning. Well off the back of the Iran nuclear deal Oil has dropped (good news for petrol prices, slow to drop though they will be) and in the last hour, gold has also taken a pasting dropping to 1231 as I write this. just on gold, I have support here at 1228/1230 and if that breaks then it could drop to 1175! The bulls will need to exceed 1266 to get some upside towards 1300 again. Anyway, back to the indices, and since the drop on Friday to 6665 the FTSE has bounced back quite well to be knocking on the door of 6700 again.

I am still feeling cautiously bullish for today and expect that if the support level of 6680 holds then we will get 6735 which is mid way between the 2 Bianca channel tops. If they break then the top of the Raff channels will be in play, with a top level around 6760. That said, I do feel that some bearish might creep in soon as it feel like the bears are starting to gain a bit of control with the dips we are seeing. The S&P dipped off a little from the 1810 area, but I think it might want that 1814 I mentioned in Fridays email. That might tally with the top of the FTSE Raff channels at 6760.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Crude oil headed for the biggest drop in three weeks while India led gains in Asian stocks and currencies after Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program. The yen fell to its weakest since May.  Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index rebounding from last week’s drop. Hong Kong’s benchmark equity gauge advanced 0.2 percent to its highest in 10 months, while stocks in Shanghai climbed 0.3 percent.

Brent crude sank 2.3 percent to $108.54 a barrel by 2:02 p.m. in Tokyo as the S&P BSE Sensex Index rose 1.4 percent in India, which imports about 80 percent of its oil. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which capped a seventh weekly gain Nov. 22, rose 0.3 percent and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4 percent. The yen dropped as much as 0.5 percent while Thailand’s currency slid amid protests in Bangkok.

Iran agreed yesterday to curtail nuclear activities in return for easing of some sanctions on oil, auto parts, gold and precious metals, the first major crack in a decade-long deadlock. A report today is projected to show U.S. pending home sales rebounded in October, after data last week showed job openings climbed to a five-year high in September. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said today inflation is heading toward the 2 percent target after he initiated unprecedented monetary easing in April.

The Iran deal “is obviously positive and hopefully we can have lower geopolitical risk,” Norman Chan, the Hong Kong-based head of investment at Calibre Asset Management Ltd., said by phone today. “It helps sentiment and growth assets such as stocks. We’re hoping to see oil prices drop to a new low.”

Brent fell from a six-week high and West Texas Intermediate oil dropped 0.9 percent.

Sales Capped

Oil exports from Iran will be held at about 1 million barrels a day under sanctions that remain in force after the nation and six world powers came to an agreement in Geneva, according to the White House. The sanctions have cut Iranian crude sales by 60 percent since the start of 2012, depriving the country of more than $80 billion in revenue, U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration said in a statement.

FTSE Outlook

ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

Generally its held up pretty well since Fridays dip but we have some significant resistance levels getting close. Around 6720 for the Bianca and 6760 for the Raff, both areas that might be worth thinking about shorts. I am still cautiously bullish, mainly as the 10 day Raff is heading up again, the EMAs are positive on the 30 minute, but the bulls need to break 6711 to get some more upside, although based on those daily channels, that upside could be limited. The S&P is targeting 1814 I feel, and may possibly even get 1823. That latter target would certainly coincide quite nicely with 6760 on the FTSE. I have plotted the arrows based on that initial resistance at 6711, support at the pivot then a run to the Bianca channel top areas at 6725 which is mid way between the 10 and 20 day (6719 and 6734 respectively). If the bears are really going to gain control this week then prices will need to dip below 6640.

88 Comments

  3. … The Iran story is a red herring for the upward move
    be careful this story will be chip paper in a couple of hours 🙂

  7. Hey guys. Still on for the bulls annoyed I closed my long on Thursday prematurely couldn’t risk not leaving over the weekend as I was on a short trip. Looking for 6730 for a short to be placed. Might see some decline tomorrow and Wednesday leading towards thanksgiving holiday and see some bullishness on Black Friday.

  15. Lol Bulls still going strong, ftse still lagging WAY behind the DOW, I can imagine DOW coming down to match ftse when and IF it drops

  16. It was Dominic Picarda that made me invest in FTSE some time ago, when DAX was in unattractive levels. Never been in this indice and my expectations at the time, was that FTSE price action worked accordingly with other major peers. Looking at charts was my assessment, except for that May high that made me a bit worried.
    Looking back, I was right being worried about that 6876 and a major failure swing in the weekly chart.

    1. And then came that knowledge that FTSE was like a commodity indicie.
      SO if commodities were down, expect FTSE going down, even if major peers were going up. THis was the last call for trying to exit for good

  19. The thing so damning about the ftse is for the last few weeks has just been sideways, atm just going for 10-15 pips either side before I going for a nice long on Wednesday.

    1. I said that on a tweet some time ago. Sideways/up. It likes to attract bulls and then by some kind of sadistic way, it stops, when it would have follow trough

  21. lol Sam you’re late 16065 same time I opened my ftse. Stay nimble buddy some points are better than nothing and definitely better than seeing a swing between 30 points lol. Gl buddy

  22. SPX and Dow filled gaps. As usual DAX with it’s strength and overbought territory not thinking in filling gap for now or maybe for quite some time 😀

    1. Yes, that was a good one Assad 🙂 though I didn’t take because of FTSE long 🙁 , but watching it. Cheers 🙂

    1. t-line turn slope positive and price closing above it. Two things that came together today, for 1st tiime since Oct.11

  28. I’m LONG FTSE at 6693… US markets gap filled like a dream and now continuing back up. Looking for DOW 16180 and SPX 1815-20 levels… This should allow the FTSE IHS to play out. Could see 6720-30 imho

  30. The FTSE is a sluggard. No doubt about it. We need a change! Enough of Bunter in the Treasury. A fat lot of good! Why should we be caned instead of him? That being said, FTSE/1 hr. is reviving a little. Ever so slightly! Turgid rather than spritely. Maybe 6750 by the end of the week?

  32. FTSE didn’t break the 6710 today, so I think this is our indicator for the bears.
    Don’t think we will get a big correction, maybe 1-2% max! then up up up…
    Short open and will leave over night if stop loss is not broken…

  33. The FTSE hasn’t managed to sustain any price levels over 6700 for the past week now. I’m looking to short any highs over 6700 in the short term

  38. im out on sidelines…no trade.
    Still thinking potential downside…..not gon risk it thought.. will look to long when we have a couple down days or break of 6610

  42. Had long from 6679, looking for a 6700 where I start to lock in some profits, atm bullish but we will see what bs happens, as normally get a dip in the morning before the afternoon rise.

  44. indicator got even stronger on sell lol (21% increase today).. at this level if ftse moves up n ppl buy it will get stronger.. its on the edge of of telling ftse is become a full bear market….. :s
    which i cant believe myself…prob jus a small noise move
    at this level i hope ftse hits 6660 tmrw for me to add more shorts!
    Right now its showing for every % move in ftse u get same in dow n snp n dax… it has been like that for a period from 9th nov i think where snp up 2.3% n ftse down 2%

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