6568 Resistance at the moment, then 6615

Good morning. Not quite such a good day yesterday from a prediction point of view but the general gist was right with the dip and then the rise, however the dip went a bit further than expected, seeing 6510, as opposed to the pivot level at 6536.  To be honest its not surprising it’s a little skitty though as the Syria situation is still ongoing and seems to be more about Russia versus America now. Pretty positive news from the UK yesterday though reinforced by Osborne’s speech, though obviously still a way to go. The fact that we are still nudging the top of the daily channels means I wouldn’t be rushing to load massive long positions just yet.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks rose, extending the longest rally in the benchmark equity gauge this year, and the Indian rupee and Malaysian ringgit climbed before Chinese factory output and retail sales data expected to show growth in August. Crude oil slipped for a second day and credit risk fell.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.1 percent at 2:28 p.m. in Tokyo, advancing for a ninth day in its longest winning streak since December. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) futures increased 0.1 percent.

Chinese industrial production and retail sales reports today will probably add to signs the world’s second-largest economy is rebounding, with factory output projected to have grown at the fastest pace this year last month, according to a Bloomberg survey. Policy makers in the nine-member Bank of Japan expect the government to push measures aimed at boosting fiscal health, minutes of the last meeting released today showed. Oil fell on speculation Russia’s plan to get Syria to surrender its chemical weapons will help avert a U.S. strike.

“The market should be pretty positive that industrial production in China is picking up,” said Evan Lucas, a Melbourne-based markets strategist at IG Ltd. “Positive indicators from China coupled with what’s going on in Japan really puts Asia back on track, making the region a very good investment case.”

Treasury Yields

Ten-year Treasury yields rose 1 basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.921 percent today, after losing three basis points in New York. Australian government bonds due in a decade yielded 4.108 percent, up 4 basis points after falling for the first time in six days yesterday. The Federal Reserve will cut Treasury purchases that have fueled global asset gains to $35 billion from $45 billion, while maintaining mortgage-bond buying at $40 billion, according to the median of 34 responses in a Bloomberg survey released Sept. 6. The FOMC is scheduled to meet Sept. 17-18.


U.S. President Barack Obama said in an interview with NBC News he isn’t confident that he’ll get congressional approval for a military strike against Syria. Obama, who will address the nation on the matter tonight, said a Russian proposal to convince Syria to give up its chemical weapons is a “potentially positive development,” while expressing skepticism on whether President Bashar al-Assad’s government will follow through. Syria should give up its stockpile if doing so would help avoid a U.S.-led strike, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after meeting with his Syrian counterpart in Moscow yesterday. Syria “welcomes the Russia proposal,” Walid al-Muallem, the nation’s foreign minister, told reporters.


ftse 100 prediction
ftse 100 prediction

The FTSE still looks like it might test the 6615 area and I am expecting a positive day today, with the rising 30 minute channel and bullish EMAs currently. With today’s pivot at 6531 and also the bottom of the 30 minute channel at that level as well, any dip to that area looks like it will set up a decent long entry for a rise to 6568 and hopefully more. We still have the Bianca channels in play, with channel tops at 6582 (20 day) and 6596 (10 day) so I am expecting a bit of resistance around these areas if 6568 is broken. The 30 minute chart is looking fairly bullish at the moment and I think we will see a test of the 6568 level first thing. If we do get above the Bianca channels at 6615 then I expect we will get a dip back tomorrow – maybe when the US Senate vote over Syria which is scheduled for tomorrow (Wednesday).


  1. Break of opening range, first retrace to 10 on 15min chart. 2x Risk, Was already long from yesterday retrace to the weekly swing point for a swing trade but still took this trade.

  2. I seem to be struggling to make any profits since beginning of September. Ever day I lose small amounts. For example today I am already down 20 points. If it carries on like this eventually I will lose my whole account.

    1. As soon I go sell, it spikes, as soon as I go long it goes down.
      I am emotionally drained, I just want to close those trade not to feel this pain any more.

      1. trying moving out a timeframe, for example if you are trading hourly charts, move out to 4hr trading, if trading daily charts move out to trading weekly charts etc… a different timeframe may better fit your emotional personality.
        My firm belief, contrary to what a lot of people think, I believe you can make similar profits trading daily/weekly charts compared to trading 1hr/4hr intraday charts. On the latter you have far more trades but with lower “profit factors”, compared to the former higher “profit factor” on less trades.

  3. I agree with al, also from my experience (painful as it was) if I day trade and it starts to go against me then without realising it I start to look actively for trades without looking seriously at the signals and reasons why I took that particular trade. (Chasing trades) This then has a massive snowball effect and it may (like it did me) cost you your whole account. When this happens it is best to take a breather, yes you may miss out on profitable trades, but it gives you a chance to re-evaluate your own financial position and trading strategy. Also with the markets as they are at the moment, the strategy that may work very well one month may have the opposite effect on another. So my advice is to step away, have a look at the strategies and signals that you are using and tweak them. Maybe longer term trades are more suitable. But most of all, paper trade and backtest (if possible) any strategies you may have.

  4. you need to re-evaluate your entry points and question what makes you believe they are good entry points and see if there is a way to narrow the playing field down to make the percentage of winners higher; by doing this you may end up seeing that you need a whole new approach, or as has been the case with me in the past it may come down to lack of discipline and a trigger finger that needs to be sorted out.

  5. Neither for me at the moment. Just waiting for the next short term trend to establish itself. Can see it bouncing between 6580 and 6600 for a while first.

  6. The way i see it is jack is that you are s trade yhe trend person, wait until a trend is formed. I expect we will see a rise at 2.30 and a decline before the ftse closes. Just wait till the ftse hits 6510 ish

        1. If you’re a “trend” trader then waiting for 6610 to short is “fighting” the trend which is UP in this timeframe. Better to buy the dip around 6580ish, stop say 6560, profit 6610…

    1. If you risk 1% on a 10 point stop & 1% on a 100 point stop there is no difference. say £10 a point for the ten stop and £1 a point on the 100 point.

  7. ….. looks like QE, Syria, debt ceiling, et al have been priced in by the market, time to fill your boots and buy !! … 🙂

  8. I was just listening to Bloomberg and even the pros are surprise about the market move over the last few sessions. Its done on very low volumes which means the big boys are not buying and the market is trying to trap the retail guys!!…they predict the volume will pick up on the down days….what a shocker!…lol

  9. Adam agreed … it looks very disturbing indeed, i’ve got a bad feeling here, me thinks a meltdown is on the cards!

  10. Just catching up… picking up on what Jay said earlier:
    “If you risk 1% on a 10 point stop & 1% on a 100 point stop there is no difference. say £10 a point for the ten stop and £1 a point on the 100 point.”

    There is one key difference, the “risk profile”(odds of making money in the long run) on the short term trade is much different to the “risk profile” on the longer term trade. There is far more noise on a 5 minute 10pt stop meaning you’re winning say 52% of the time, whereas with your 100pt weekly TF trade you’re maybe looking at more likely a 65% win rate with a lot less noise and less psychological bias. With your 5 minute trades you’re quite likely to get 10 losers in a row, get angry quadruple your bet size trying to get it back and throw your whole account away!! It’s far harder to do that on a longer TF. Shorter TFs are much harder and noiser because you have the most traders above you (trading higher TFs) that move your price close to its stop. eg.if you trade Monthly TFs you only have buy&hold type traders/investors affecting you…

    1. Yes, Listen to this man. The bigger time frames control the shorter time frames. Why did i get long yesterday arvo. Because the weekly closed up last week. We had a normal retrace to test support and shake a few people out yesterday and then up we went. Fractals. Monthly, Weekly and Daily. Are they aligned??. 9 out of 10 people lose money in this game. That means 1 person out of 10 is worth listening to on this page. al is one of the few.

        1. I always listen to al and appreciate his opinion. Thank you.
          Today I am not feeling very well after this game. I didn’t wait for 6615 and came out with no loss but little profit. I thought it won’t break up. There’s always another day. I will try to do the following: reduce the amount of trades per day to 1-2. Today was madness, more than 10 trades and most of them losing bits and pieces. Not proud of myself of course, but need to work on my emotions.

  11. I have a double feeling here. Is this rise is just DCB of the fall from 6600 or we are heading up to 6600 again? Is there a chance to get to 6600 or even higher?

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