6545, 6524, 6495, 6480 Support, 6578, 6592, 6625, 6649, Resistance

Good morning. Well the long was rather better than the short yesterday with the latter taking then being stopped out as unfortunately it coincided with Draghi speaking. I did debate removing the order but left it on in the end. The long off the pivot worked better though! As I write this we are testing yesterdays high at 6578, and a close above 6555 would keep things bullish for a push to the top of the daily channels – 6650+. Its NFP news today so going to be choppy at 13:30 when that is released.

Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Most Asian stocks rose, paring a weekly decline on the regional index, after a drop in American jobless claims bolstered optimism in the world’s largest economy before a government report on employment.

More than three shares climbed for each that retreated on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP), which gained 0.1 percent to 140.18 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo, before markets opened in Hong Kong and China. The measure is headed for a 1.2 percent decline this week. The European Central Bank vowed yesterday to increase stimulus efforts if needed, less than one week after the Bank of Japan decided to bolster already-unprecedented easing. The yen held at 115.21 per dollar after falling 0.5 percent yesterday.

“U.S. data continued to tick along with unemployment claims falling more than expected,” said Stan Shamu, Melbourne-based market strategist at IG Ltd. “Optimism is running hot heading into today’s official non-farm payrolls.”

The number of Americans filing jobless claims for the first time dropped to a three-week low of 278,000 in the week to Nov. 1, below the 285,000 median forecast of 50 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Today’s data may show nonfarm payrolls rose by 235,000 last month, after climbing 248,000 in September, according to the median of 100 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The jobless rate probably held at a six-year low of 5.9 percent in October.

ECB President Mario Draghi said policy makers will be ready to implement further measures if needed as he signaled officials may cut growth forecasts next month. Speaking at a press conference in Frankfurt yesterday after the ECB left interest rates unchanged, Draghi said that the Governing Council “is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate.”

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.7 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.5 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.1 percent.

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We are currently testing the level hat we spiked to yesterday at 6578 so I expect a bit of resistance here first thing today, most likely with a dip down to the pivot at 6545. If that holds then the bulls should be able to push on again, and if we break 6578 then 6592 and 6610 are the next levels of note. If it were to get uber bullish then the top of the Bianca channels at 6625 (10 day) and 6649 (20 day) are more longer term resistance. If the bulls manage to close above 6555 today then that will give the FTSE some strength for the foreseeable and probably invalidate most super bear predictions of drops to 4000! I think a long off the pivot today could work out, though if that breaks then the next support is 6524 – and if that goes then a 40 point drop to 6480, along with the bigger bearish picture remaining valid. It feels like its being under-pinned at the moment so it doesn’t all goes pearshaped with eh cutting of the US QE, so it will be interesting to see how long this rise lasts. I am watching the top of the daily channels with interest as I think once we get near those levels we will see profit taking – 6650 FTSE, 2067 S&P, 9700 Dax.

If the bulls fail to break 6578 today then we could be in for a run down for the next few sessions. That level, as well as being the top of yesterday’s spike on the ECB news, is also the top of the 30min and 10min channels.

Support so entry levels for a possible long

  • 6545 daily pivot
  • 6524
  • 6495
  • 6480

Resistance so entry levels for a possible short

  • 6578
  • 6592
  • 6625
  • 6649

103 Comments

        1. Don’t use stops. Simples. The time you get stopped is likely the time that you should be selling more so then what do you do?
          I haven’t got a clue what’s keeping the market up here. Greed is not a good thing.

          2. yes, stops seems to hit easily anytime, whether long or short…but if you wrong, when do you stop and take losses? Or otherwise end up averaging and later bigger losses? Hence important to be disciplined.

  2. I am short already at nicks resistance and will keep this as it will go down to the pivot. I have target 6650, i reckon will get there in next 1 – 2 hours.

        1. Expected good news though so will go down? Also we might hopefully wake up to the fact things are sh*t for us over here?

      2. Will make euro weaker but apparently we’re not concerned about our low growth so god knows.

          1. Dollar at the moment is great for a short on gold! Maybe i should join you and i wont be so p*ssed off!

    1. Nothing. Still in buy mode since the other day. All indices.
      But as I told earlier I prefer the signals that appeared in middle of the day, like the ones OCT.30.

  6. i only joke my mate barry soetoro is aka barack Osama 🙂
    be careful today i am short with a -12 stop @ 6593

  7. But FTSE broke the important resistance at 6570. If this holds, till end of the day those shorts are very danger imho

  10. FTSE 5 mins. — Looks like price is going to continue travelling above Linreg 100 for a bit, maintaining a positive gradient. FTSE 1hr. trend from Nov. 04 also strong — for now. 😀

  13. To all that are expressing a view on the data out later which will move the US market one way or another. Please do not forget that now with QE over these numbers are being looked at differently I believe. I think we seen misses in payroll before but that did not matter a great deal as market were riding on QE. If the number is as estimated or very close market will go up. A significant miss either way I think will send the market in the US down as neither scenario is particularly handy now. On top there will be tendency for profit taking I guess. So as this is betting the odds for this going down are greater perhaps so worth a small short at the right level for any chosen index. GL all

    1. The balloon has blown up for a while now non-stop, just one small needle needed…and….rest you know!

      News has been quiet recently of Ebola, Russia, and Middle-east…so you ever know what will, if ever trigger…

  23. closed my short – this market is going to fly
    bought double stake 6590 i am aiming at 6625 and beyond

  24. It’s tails for me, will short @1.30 with 20 point stop. I bet both us stops will be hit, nelly 🙂

  27. World growth numbers are poor, like German numbers this morning, but strong US numbers will keep pushing them up..as well other indexes…
    But unemployment 5.8% more chance of spring rate hike in US? However when and how will Europe recession risk start affecting US?

  35. looking once more for it to go to 6550.
    should be no problem now. this looks like a one way bet.

  39. Paul i thought you closed your short as the market was going to fly? I went short of 10 units @6605 paying off now.

  40. Will DOW just touch 17500 and then jump up again? Too bullish and probably will? Or when Fed speaks…however any hint of rate hike in spring and wow…

  42. Its already flown this past week and S&P’s hitting new highs every day?! Everything is bad still and always has been. Time to come back to reality.

      1. Sounds good. Managed risk. Eg far safer going short about 6600 then long and it’s paid off. Deal struck with EU. Could it ruin things? I suppose bad news for the majority?

    1. That’s what DOW been doing…Wall Street has been racing up no matter what news comes out good/bad…too bullish and no profit taking yet

          1. Might close before we close for the weekend though. Have you gone back into the market Senu or go again on Monday?

  48. Lawerence

    you went short at 05 at £ 60 / pip.
    and took profits on £ 5 /pip at every 5 pips ?

    1. Wish i could trade at £60 a point Paul! Trade @£10 a point so 10 lots =£100.
      Reduced by £10 on every 10 point fall.

        1. So you traded 10 Lots from 05
          taking 1 lot off at each 10 pips.
          so your trade initially was 10 lots @ 10 £ = £ 100 / point?
          Or am I getting my head all twisted up?
          I am still learning.

          1. Yeah that’s right Paul. I then closed 1 lot @95
            so 10 points x 10 = £100
            1@85 = 20 points x£10 = £200
            1@75 = 30 points x£10 = £300
            And so on. If i manage to close all 10 i will make 550 points so £5,500

          2. Lawrence

            Ok got you. Very interesting.

            So do you place all the 10 lots at the same time – price level.?
            When do you get out – if things go against you.

  49. End of an interesting week as always. FTSE ends in positive territory for the 3rd in a row. Slowly building good support. Far too early to suggest we won’t see 6500 again this year. For that we need a stellar week.

    GLA and have a nice weekend

  50. My core indicator had a strong sell signal on DAX today at 15:00
    9257 short

    But being a isolate case, when we all know that major markets are always in tune, I need to see more evidence, if this is a false signal and possible reverse in near future or indeed DAX has the strong to influence all other markets.
    For now is still trading above the short order
    Wait and see.

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