Good morning. A slightly annoying session yesterday that followed the arrows but went a bit lower and a bit higher than the levels i was entering at. Typical. A confirmed case of Ebola in New York overnight, and a big miss on Amazon results after the bell saw the FTSE drop off from he 6430 level it hit around 7pm, to drop and test a fairly decent support level overnight at 6370. As I am writing the bulls are trying to get it back above 6400. Resistance today is that 6430 level initially. Tesco’s woes continue with the black hole having an extra 23million added to it. Going to take a while to turn that ship around now.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index extending its first weekly gain in seven weeks, after U.S. earnings beat estimates and data signaled stronger European growth.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) advanced 0.5 percent to 137.72 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure is heading for a 3 percent weekly advance after entering a correction last week.
“We are getting good earnings data out of the U.S.,” said Tim Schroeders, a portfolio manager who helps oversee $1 billion in equities at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “The market seems to be moving from one data point to the next data point without conviction and there’s a lot of volatility.”
Japan’s Topix (TPX) index rose 1.3 percent, set for the steepest weekly gain since April 2013, after the yen slumped 1 percent yesterday against the dollar. South Korea’s Kospi index and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.6 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.9 percent. Markets in China and Hong Kong are yet to open.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed today. The measure rose 1.2 percent yesterday after results from Caterpillar Inc. to 3M Co. exceeded analysts’ estimates.
Caterpillar, the largest construction equipment maker, added 5 percent after raising its full-year earnings forecast amid higher sales of construction machinery in North America. 3M climbed 4.4 percent as the maker of Post-it notes boosted sales in all of its businesses.
Europe Growth
Economic data yesterday suggested the euro-area economy may have moved one step away from another recession. A Purchasing Managers’ Index showed manufacturing in the region unexpectedly grew this month, and Spain’s third-quarter unemployment dropped to the lowest level since 2011. In Germany, factories rebounded from a slump in September.
Fewer Americans filed applications for unemployment benefits over the past month than at any time in 14 years as an improving economy prompted employers to hold on to staff, another report showed.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both added 0.3 percent in their most recent trading session. The Bloomberg China-US Index of Chinese stocks traded in the U.S. climbed 0.5 percent yesterday. [From here]
FTSE Outlook
Todays pivot is 6388 so there is initial support here, especially as the lower support at 6370 has held overnight. The key level for the bulls to break is 6430 – yesterday out of hours high and 6437 were we have the 25ema on the daily today. I have gone off the 10min chart for todays arrows, as there is also PRT resistance at 6425 with 2 channels there, so as such a short there with a stop just above the 25ema could be fruitful. I might well add at 6436. If the bulls manage to exceed this level then the top of the 10 day Bianca channel is 6506, and the 20 day Raff at 6520. I have gone with 6370 holding as support for todays session and actually bouncing off the pivot area instead (maybe go in at 6388 and 6370 at half stakes on each and see if the bounce area holds). If the 6430 area is tested a 3rd time then I expect it to break. If 6370 does break then the lower supports are 6357 and 6330. The bottom of the 10 day Bianca is 6217 – so if it got really bearish….. Remember its Friday so expect a little bit of weirdness as per usual!
Support so entry levels for a possible long
- 6387 daily pivot
- 6370
- 6357
- 6330
- 6217
Resistance so entry levels for a possible short
- 6424
- 6430
- 6437
- 6506
Hi, I’m sitting with short here, do you think it may be any advances to that area? 16585 av.
in this market easy just got to be ready for it take your eye of it and boom its gone
long 6372 stop b/e.
Hi Sam… what’s b/e? Gone long at 6378 by the way – where do you envision it will take us?
b/e – break even. May be yesterday’s high, as per Nick’s prediction, could be hit or atleast day should close with green candle. Well, Fridays can be bit tricky.
Thanks Sam. I hope so…haha yes it’s crazy! Is every Friday like this?! Great day for scalping then, right?
What do your titles 6387-6370-6357-6330-6217-support-6425-6430-6437-6506-resistance mean? Buy at 6387-6370-6357-6330-6217?
and short at 6425-6430-6437-6506?
Yes…the first lot (6387 etc.) are support levels, meaning they’re good for a possible buy (which is going long) and the second lot are resistance levels, meaning they are “imaginary” resistance lines i.e. ones it will struggle to get past so you can potentially sell (short) here. The levels can be determined by technical analysis but also keeping abreast of what’s happening in the US and German market/any significant news. Please forgive me if I’ve made any mistakes explaining this! Shyam
Thats brilliant sir, thank you for your reply, this website is awesome, i love what you are writing.
My only problem is some terminology as i am new to this field is confusing such as the 10 day bianca channel, i goolged it and weather forecasts came up haha.
FTSE has been very sluggish last two days compared to the US. Still 1st week it has been up in 5. Unlikely now that October will finish positive unless it has a stellar week.
Today was extremely slowly, watched charts all day, hardly any significant movements. You had a good day?
Not really…..got a long term long….so looking for some oomph from the FTSE like the US. Not happening at the mo
It was a bit harsh from Dow. ouch. Don’t even know if it will ever reverses right now. I kind of think it should be another dip before Christmas rally. But maybe because I want to think like this… It’s just on 62% and looks like DCB on daily. But bull nowadays somewhat unpredictable. It can push push and push without retrace… ouch. Is it FED next week, could be messy and pushy. Where’s all this talk about the weakening economy?
Not sure what to do with my short.
What do you envision we will see first thing when FTSE opens tomorrow morning. It ended on 6416 Friday…do you think we’ll see it drop to around 6380 or lower before another potential rally…or will it continue to rise to next resistance?
How long this long will continue? When will they drop for God’s sake?
hi where are you short dow?
Morning all, hope to have a bit more time to post this week. Been watching things rise and not done much else but scalp a bit here and there. Think we going up a little fast here and ftse and dax look overbought to me. I expect we get a volatile week but in the end we ought to move down a bit, so many issues lurking as well.
I went short DAX 9085 this morning and I would say that’s near the top for today and we will zig zag down to 9020 or maybe test 9000. If it test 9000 I will go short again at that level as I so no reason markets could not return to 8500-600 in Dax’s case