Good morning. Well, just when you think is that the low then around 6300, Sunday night sees 6240! Whilst this volatility is good for running a position it does make it hard to get an SMS out as a level gets hit! Anyway, the market is full of fear at the moment, with the Eurozone “staring into an abyss” to coin a phrase from the weekend papers. Will the UK be dragged down or will the usual thing happen and it shakes off the fears and climbs a wall of worry again. The fact is the Eurozone hasn’t ever really recovered – France is still sick, Germany isn’t booming, the hanger ons are still mired in debt. Despite the UK “doing best of the G7”, real wage increases are non existent (though I see the heads of the FTSE100 companies have had a good year). The main worry is deflation still, across the board, with Ebola thrown in for good measure.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell with U.S. equity-index futures (DJA), extending a rout that wiped $1.54 trillion from global shares last week, and sovereign bonds rose amid concern that pledges to keep record-low interest rates won’t counter a global slowdown. The dollar dropped while gold gained.
The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.8 percent by 12:35 p.m. in Hong Kong, heading for its lowest close since March. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures lost 0.6 percent and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index retreated 0.4 percent. The yen strengthened to a three-week high as gold jumped 0.8 percent. Brent crude extended last week’s slump, sliding toward an almost four-year low. Ten-year Treasury futures climbed to an 11-month high and Australian bonds rose.
Stocks have fallen on concern that valuations are too high as the Federal Reserve removes stimulus and economic indicators from China and Japanto Germany signal weakness. U.S. rate rises could be delayed by slowdowns elsewhere, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said at the weekend, and Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo said he’s worried about global growth. China reported stronger-than-estimated trade data today, while in Hong Kong, police removed some roadblocks as protests enter a third week.
“People are worried about the fourth quarter and beyond,” said Ryan Huang, a strategist at IG Ltd. in Singapore. “China data today came out better than expected but there’s too much negativity outweighing it. Investors are going to look for more positive indicators before we get any traction.”
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5 percent to 16,353. The index slid 2.7 percent last week, the most since August. That was less than the S&P 500’s 3.1 percent slump, the worst weekly loss since May 2012. Nasdaq 100 Index futures due in December declined 0.7 percent to 3,827.
Technical Levels
Contracts on the S&P 500 slipped to 1,884.1 today, trading around levels closely watched by chart analysts. The S&P 500 December contract closed last week at 1,894.3, about 3 points below its lowest close from August and less than two points above the intraday low of 1,892.9 on Aug. 7. The 200-day moving average was 1,887.5 at the end of last week.
“I don’t think we’ll get a monster selloff because the trend, the 200-day moving average, is still rising,” Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion as a senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama, said by e-mail before the start of U.S. futures trading. “However, if the futures deteriorate all night with no bounce higher, and we go into trading tomorrow morning still down and falling, watch out.”
Risk ‘Underpriced’
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Risk Officer Craig Broderick said markets will see a shock that will expose liquidity and other risks that aren’t apparent today. Investors across assets classes don’t understand that crises occur periodically and “when they do, they’ve significantly underpriced risk,” Broderick said Oct. 11 at an event sponsored by the Institute of International Finance in Washington.
Ebola
A health-care worker in Dallas was confirmed at the weekend to have contracted Ebola after being in contact with an infected patient there, raising the possibility other caregivers could have been exposed to the disease. Ebola’s arrival in the U.S. “hasn’t helped sentiment recently,” Greenwood Capital’s Todd said.
FTSE Outlook
The live charts pivot is 6366.8 today, whilst the IG one is 6332. With a decent looking 10 minute channel in play, also with resistance there I think that is a better place to go short for a run down to that 6230 area, possibly lower. It certainly all looks bearish still, with gold daily trends turning up as well. The slight glimmer of hope is if the S&P finds support at 1887 – the 200dma. It has hit that overnight and seen a small bounce, helping the FTSE off that 6240 overnight low. I have plotted the arrows on the 10min chart today, mainly as it has that channel on it, and also the SMA’s are currently showing a little bit of bull potential, at least initially. All in all, it still is pretty messy, but as the market always likes to turn when everyone is bearish (or bullish) then be on guard! On the 30minute chart the EMAs are still bearish and have been for a few sessions now, sentiment won’t change until the 10 crosses the 25.
The bulls will need to get prices holding above 6320 really, to try and target a rise to 6410 today or tomorrow, but that 6330 area is likely to cause a headache for them. I have put another sizeable dip down from there to the 6230 and possibly lower 6213 (s2 level) though a lot will depend on the US for the next few sessions, though it is a holiday there today so volumes are likely to be light. The bottom of the Raffs are 6145 and 6115…..
Morning Ruz
Sorry I did not see your post.
There was no target issued.
The signal turned off just after 9
& there was a buy signal at 6311
Target 6340 & 6366
Sorry did not post that.
Well. that was a good one..
RC,
Your target hit nearly hit.
If target hit you will out or keep it?
Anyone short guys? I went short @ 6332. doesn’t look good now 🙁
stopped out, next 6366 for short
libbo2003 says:
October 11, 2014 at 12:11 pm
Does your system not give out places to place your stops? or does it only give out new positions to take and you have to manage the position as how you see it? If not I would be interested in helping you tweak that side of the position?
Hi Libbo
No – as it is – No stop loss are given.
But – what I have noticed is that once the signal turns off – is where you exit.
Also – A reverse signal is an exit. The reverse signal more than 90% of the time
comes at the exact place where the original signal was. – so in effect – a stop & reverse trade entry.
Sometimes the signal may not turn off – but a new signal – in the same direction comes on at a ( better !! ) price. So this means a 2nd trade into a losing position.
But a stop – as traditionally used – No.
But if you have suggestions – Yes please fire away – Always welcome.
Senu
Sorry that I did not update earlier.
I had a sell at 6311 at 8
Just got SELL @ 6342.
Morning Jim
Looks like a good signal.
I still have the same holding – buy 6311
T – 6340 & 66
Morning all. I think 32 is fine Senu. I’m short @35 and @50
what is your target Mlawrence01?
Aim for 20 points on the 1@50. I will then lower another 20 points. So 30 and then 10. If i buy at 10 i might not necessarily use it to close though. We’ll see how it works out today.
GL mate 🙂
Good morning old chaps
My system gave my 1st signal on FTSE today at 10:00am buy at 6346
SPX, DOW and DAX still no signal. All in the short mode.
The “candy” indicator saying only to stay out of the markets, in all indices, right now
As I said in last posts, this indicator is only a sentiment measure how I handle the manual positions.
My system uses the one hour chart
will recess end of each hour
I still have my short order @ 66, but thinking to remove that. today may be a trending day
From the last short in FTSE at 6512 and exit at long 6346 = +-166
automatic
Nice one PMS. 🙂
That was a great catch of points, mainly because of the huge dip last night.
It the 2 last dead cat bounces, this month, FTSE gave +- only 15 points, when changing from short to long and vice versa.
SPX and DOW gave more.
+-15 points on each
LONG from 6349 [System]
Jim, did u just got the signal?
11:30 Senu. Not doing much.
Short @ 62
OUT @ 50
Oh, good one Senu. I was thinking of doing a tutorial short right there.
The candy indicator still saying stay out. So my posture is stop at b/e
Was tempted to exit at pivot, but still testing the best options available
Long @ 62, stop 55
Exit with some decent gains or until reverse to sell. None of them still happened
Using only 2 eur/point
FTSE as I said earlier, is the one that has worse performance with only 300 points since Oct.1
US opens today ?
Closed for Columbus day
But it was a good idea of entry 🙂
closed @ 72 😉
No headache with 6330 area for them.
Hi Jack, did you enter into any trade?
No green light yet in the “candy” indicator… so still in a limbo with stop at b/e.
Will exit with stop at b/e or after a green light turns to stay out.
Short @ 67, stop 74
dow open 🙁
US still did open…was not sure
FTSE green light
but one hour still not closed, so limbo yet
Looking now to other indices
Long @ 6370
Still position not closed for only 0,01 6346.6. It reached 6346.7 and then rocket to space, cleaning all stops till there
THat what´s I call a bull**** luck
need more confirmation from other indices…still in these limbo. FTSE is the only one flickering the green light, some times.
out at b/e
Now let’s see how will FTSE loose from buy to sell signal, if indeed reaches that signal.
Yo PMS very hard to trade this
still all a sell isn’t it?
yes, but not FTSE
The candy indicator didn’t flash green when the buy signal appeared at 6346, which in the past since Oct.1 every time, we had a strong signal (Buy signal+ green light). Even so FTSE is managing very well. The other indices do not help
Day by day trusting even more in my system. Need more time for confidence…
Now with FTSE out of positions, looking for buy signal in SPX and DOW.
Here we will have more strength and leadership
When it shows
Hmm maybe all indexes are now a bit more steady, feel the DAX is a bit more resilient around the 8800 at the moment
I had 3 options :
1-Stay on FTSE until reverse (buy to sell) or whatever it would do (a new leg up…etc)
2- Out at B/E and enter long in the other indices when a buy signal appear.
3-Out at B/E and enter short in a new sell signal, as the other indices are in short mode since last week.
*3- Short on FTSE ofc
PMS
What does your software say regarding Ftse – now.
Green light appeared again. Hour not closed yet…
DAX – stay out
SPX – Sell
DOW -sell
Been watching this forum for ideas for the past year or so and signed up today to say hi (and potentially, bye – at the same time :))
Do you ever feel as if somebody somewhere is just looking to get you stopped out? It just happens too often that i’ll pick some target that I think gives enough room for a move against me but is safe enough not to lose too much. The pattern I see after always repeats!
I place my trade, initially it moves in my direction, only to go massively against me. What’s annoying me is that time after time, it shoots to my stop, I lose my money and then that move fizzles out. Never seems to “nearly” stop me out, or shoot right through it – it’s always just enough to kill me off.
I don’t want to sound paranoid, but sometimes I wonder if I’m looking at my own personal chart and it’s just me vs IG!
Don’t think I’ve had a winning trade in the last 50 tries. I’ve even tried doing the opposite to what I’m thinking; but then I wonder if my mind has already done that and I’d just be reverting back to my original choice! (I’m not insane, honest!)
Just now then, I sold dow at 16530, watched it go to almost 16000, thought about cashing out, didn’t, then watched it dash up to 16600, my stop was 16590.
I suppose I’m just not cut out for it – I’ve given it a fair go over the past 5 years and lost an awful lot of money. If I tell you that my biggest win in one day was over 200k, you can get an idea of the sums involved. That actually triggered a call from IG asking if I wanted to go for lunch so that they could “understand what I wanted” from trading (doh – money?!).
I’m not bitter, I do enjoy it, but it does take too much of my time and I think it’s time to call it a day.
Si You sound the very same as me what you have just wrote is ME.
@So Hahah that is basically the story of my life as far as this trading lark goes!! The exact same happens to me literally every time. I genuinely believe that if I had placed the exact opposite of each trade I’ve ever made I’d ‘ve a multimillionaire…! Oh the pain…
I also use IG and I can’t count the number of times I’ve called them and given them what for over the phone thinking they’ve made a mostake only to realise I’ve made a really obscure mistake… Feels like a new learn on literally every trade. Just can never get any flow going.
I would love to develop and build a viable working strategy but it just seems like a massive scam… If we trade fundamentals we get stopped out by short term sentiment…. If we trade sentimentmomentum we get stopped out by ebola…!! Damn you!
There absolutely has to be some logic to this game…. It always just seems to allude me…. And don’t IG index know it!!
Does anyone know of an actual forum that Semi experienced guys like myself can jump into and exchange ideas and possible strategies… Can’t seem to find any.
Sorry for the moan. Just couldn’t help it after reading @Si
Dean
Everyone as the same problem when starting….
It’s simple when starting don’t day trade! Use longer time frames with a smaller price per pint ie when starting trade maybe 30 pence a point that way mistake don’t cost you your account.
I have a friend who is minted though trading and I bet he only trades maximum 12 trade a year… It’s all about waiting, when you day trade you build bad habit thinking you must trade everyday chasing losses, I know cause I have made this mistake same as most people on this forum.
couldn’t agree more smokingaces. Only time I made money is trading on longer time frames. I hardly made any day-trading, but cant resist day-trading.
@smoking
Great point mate…. I must admit my trading history primarily consists of spurts of maybe 2-3 weeks of intense trading before I either make one terrible trade and wipe myself out or get back to break even and get scared and leave it.
I think I’ll take your advice on the longer time frame trades. Longer trades in my experience also fel less stressful :-b
Can I just ask, what would be considered a longer time frame? Few days, weeks?
Also when considering a longer term investment window how should you view your charts? For example if I wanted to trade over a two week window on the ftse how would I set up my charts in order to make a “decent decision” as to when to enter the trade
Thanks smoking
Chaps – I sympathise and I recognise the same feelings of paranoia. But can I ask, do you subscribe to Nick’s service? I ain’t advertising for him but I have followed his trade ideas religiously for 6 months and made some very nice money. I believe someone keeps a spreadsheet showing this. Of course I have been tempted to take my own additional trades and made both impressive returns and some horrific losses.
I should say that the last few weeks have not been good for Nick’s system but if you look over the longer run (even just a few months – but even better over a year or so) it has consistently made money. The secret is discipline (stop losses and trade sizes). I have just made a pretty horrific loss during the recent sell-off but this was due to me trading ‘off-piste’ and not related to Nick’s trades.
Hope this helps.
The 1st reverse (buy to sell) since Oct.1, that makes a loss of +-40 points
Was on FTSE (after having made +- 40 points, since buy signal and stopped out at b/e, not trusting in overall markets)
Now a sell signal on FTSE at 6310,9+2,6spread =6308,3 after 9:00 pm.
Never tried this one yet, but let’s see where I will place my manual position on this short.
Will not place any short at FTSE overnight… Optimizing again those variables.
Hi Dean
Sorry for late reply, I still make the same mistake, I know the mistake I make over trade and trade to large amount… Even now I am on the wrong side of a dax trade which is really hurting.
Timeing and patience is the name of the game, there are lots of ways to trade candles are great longer time frames I use day candle support and restance rsi. Have done this for a while now my time frame can be 12 days to 4 weeks.
For shorter trades use 4 hour time frame using 1 hour time frames for entry point. Am no expert but like I said once you see the mistake you make and try to make less of them it gets a little easier. Problem by the time we realise this we are normal a lot of money down.
Guys you need to learn abit about Elliot Wave if you want to trade on the longer term. To trade every day you must not really have too much of a view to the longer term bias and trade what you see in the shorter term trend.
Libbo 2003.
any buy signal on FTSE?
6300 level is interesting especially if it lines up with 8700 on dax
short ftse to 6300 level
Good morning everyone – If we can just get past 6351 – I think we’re going to 6380 initally….
Trading is tough…..very tough…..the biggest hurdle is mental. There have beem times no doubt when I felt exactly the same……the market goes the opposite of what I do everytime. But just as we aren’t big enough to move the market we aren’t big enough for the big boys to manipulate.
All I can suggest is take some time out….listen to your favourite music, play some sport….golf……perhaps. It’s what I’m doing…..Johnny Marr on and smacking some of those little white balls……the market is brutal out there at the mo……and I’m suffering……essentially now flat from March.
Might as well have gone on a Cruise in Feb without WIFI…..anyway still up on the year…..so just have to grin and bear it…..fun though it ain’t.
I think we might have a turning point on the 4 hr. chart Javed — at long last.
Edging up Hugh? System is already long from late yesterday.
Probably waiting for Inflation GB @9:30 & Germany ZEW @ 10 o’clock
Thanks Jim,
From my perspective the current volatility doesn’t really matter…..it is only MTM not realised….I still believe in Christmas….and Santa Claus…..rarely let’s us down…….