5th April 2019
The DAX closed 0.28pc higher at 11,988.01 despite the biggest annual decline in German factory orders since 2009. German manufacturing orders in February fell 8.4pc compared with the same month a year earlier, the steepest fall since the financial crisis.
The FTSE 100 closed 0.22pc lower at 7,401.94 while the FTSE 250 ended 0.29pc down at 19,507.33. Brexit uncertainty weighed on the London stock market and the pound today.
In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now 0.52pc higher to 26,353.89 with Boeing among the winners. The S&P 500 is 0.07pc ahead to 2,876.21 while the the tech-heavy Nasdaq is 0.2pc higher.
There was some optimism today about the United States and China reaching a trade agreement. Bloomberg News said the deal they are working on would give China until 2025 to meet pledges on purchases and to let US firms wholly own their businesses in the country. Germany’s industrial sector is facing an even deeper crunch as manufacturing orders dried up in February, dashing any hope of a quick recovery for the eurozone economy.
Today we have the US Non Farm Payrolls jobs report, which is forecast to show an acceleration in employment gains after a weak February. With traders betting that the next Federal Reserve move will be to lower interest rates, not raise them, the fixed-income market could be affected by any signs of wage strength in today’s report. The report is projected to show non-farm payrolls up 175,000 in March, versus the 186,000 average over the prior three months.
FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
For today that 7366 level is still support, and if we were to get an initial dip to that level then I am still favouring a long here. We have the 30 min 200ema at this area and whilst its still technically bullish, buying a dip down to this line still makes sense.
For the bulls, we are looking at the moving average resistance on the 2 hour chart at 7432 currently, with 7442 as daily resistance above this. With these 2 decent looking resistance levels at this area I am thinking that a short around here is worth a go, for a test of 7400 or lower. If the bulls can push above the 7450 area then things remains firmly bullish, and we should see a rise towards the 7510 area where we have the top of the 2 Raff channels. There is also daily resistance at the 7517 level.
If the bears were to break below the 7366 support level then we have a key fib at 7352 initially, though 7340 looks more likely to be tested on any weakness. Below this then there is longer term support at 7221 but the bottom of the Raff channels at 7232 – so this area should see a hold.
As mentioned above its NFP news today so expecting a bit of movement around 1330 as the news is released. Its also prudent to exercise a bit of caution on NFP Friday – they can be a bit whippy!
The ASX200 had a bit of a bearish session, at least initially, and the 2 hour chart for them is starting to go a bit bearish. If we don’t break above 7450 then I think the FTSE 100 will also start to struggle – though of course a lot depends on the pound and the Brexit saga. Another referendum still being mooted! Keep voting till we get the result we like basically…..
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