Good morning. Well, it managed to hold that 6440 support area during the day yesterday, but what the hell happened in the evening? When the dam gave way the floodgates opened and we dropped to the bottom of the 10 day Bianca at 6383 in one move virtually! Oil broke below $60 a barrel – no surprise there really. The bulls need to regain some ground today to keep the hopes for a Santa Rally alive, otherwise we are on a pretty slippery slope (and those predictions for a year end around 6900 from he banks will miss by miles!). The S&P managed to hold onto its 2020 support, just as well as it had a large range as well, hitting a high of 2055 during the session. Looking at the FTSE Bianca chart, below 6383 we have the 62% fib at 6340, daily key support here.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks pared gains after Chinese industrial-production data missed estimates, while U.S. equity-index futures slipped. Oil in New York extended declines below $60 a barrel, dragging Norway’s krone to an 11-year low.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.3 percent by 3:17 p.m. in Tokyo, paring the biggest weekly drop since Oct. 17 as Japanese shares gained before elections this weekend. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slipped 0.2 percent, with the U.S. gauge set to snap a seven-week rising streak. West Texas Intermediate crude slumped 1.1 percent to $59.30. The krone weakened 0.5 percent after an interest-rate cut, while Indonesia’s rupiah slid 0.8 percent. Gold fell 0.5 percent.
Oil’s collapse has been exacerbated as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, OPEC’s three largest member, offered the deepest discounts to Asia in at least six years. While that’s hurting producers and fueling deflation fears for some central banks, it’s leaving more money in the pockets of U.S. consumers as hiring picks up and the Federal Reserve ponders the timing of any interest-rates increase. China’s industrial-production growth slowed more than estimated in November.
“Plummeting crude prices will benefit main oil consumers including the U.S., India and Indonesia, while hurting countries like Russia and those in the Middle East,” Hong Sung Ki, a commodities analyst at Samsung Futures Inc. In Seoul, said. “For Japan and European nations who are concerned about deflation, decreasing oil prices gives them room to more aggressively ease monetary policy.”
Japan Poll
Eight of the 10 industry groups on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed today, as the measure heads for a 2 percent weekly drop.
The Topix index gained 0.2 percent and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average increased 0.7 percent. Japan heads for an election on Dec. 14 after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last month called for a referendum on his economic policies.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index swung between gains and losses and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.3 percent.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fluctuated and a gauge of Chinese companies listed in the city rose 0.2 percent, trimming its weekly loss to 2.8 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index was little changed.
Factory production rose 7.2 percent from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today in Beijing, down from 7.7 percent in October and less than the 7.5 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Investment in fixed assets such as machinery expanded 15.8 percent in January through November from a year earlier, and retail sales gained 11.7 percent last month.
U.S. stocks closed higher after better-than-estimated economic data. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.5 percent at the close in New York, paring an earlier rally of 1.5 percent. Energy companies in the S&P 500 erased gains after surging 2.5 percent earlier in the day.
Retail Sales
Retail sales climbed 0.7 percent, matching the highest estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 294,000 in the week ended Dec. 6. Claims have been below 300,000 for 12 of the past 13 weeks.
The House of Representatives passed a $1.1 trillion spending bill after a day of disarray and just hours before U.S. government funding was set to run out. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada said the Senate would clear a short-term funding bill tonight and would begin debate on the long-term measure tomorrow.
The dollar snapped three days of losses yesterday as the U.S. economy’s strength contrasts with slowing growth in the rest of the world. The yen slipped 0.2 percent o 118.89 today after yesterday weakening as much as 1.3 percent to 119.30 per dollar. It had surged 3 percent during the previous three days.
China
China lowered its planned gross domestic product growth target for next year at the Central Economic Work Conference which ended yesterday, China Business News reported, without saying by how much. The report cited “several authoritative channels.”
Ruble Rout
Russia’s ruble tumbled 2.9 percent yesterday to 56.44 per dollar, a record. Of 174 currencies monitored by Bloomberg, only Ukraine’s hryvnia has had a worse year versus the dollar.
Central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina increased rates yesterday by 1 percentage point to 10.5 percent, only to see the ruble sink to an all-time low less than a minute later. A more drastic move would accelerate the economy’s downturn, with no guarantee of halting the currency’s slide if oil prices extend their 42 percent slump this year, according to Lars Christensen from Danske Bank A/S.
Anxiety that voters will kick out leaders committed to Greece’s bailout is wreaking havoc on that country’s markets, with a three-day slump in stocks making them this year’s worst performers behind Russia. The ASE Index is heading for its worst week since 1987 and has lost 29 percent this year.
FTSE Outlook
Todays pivot is 6475 and a level hat would get the price back within the 20 day Bianca channel. Support is at 6383, the bottom of the 10 day channel, as well as the 20 day Raff at 6370. If this breaks then we are looking at 6238 where the next fib line is on the Bianca chart – the 76% one. Those fibs are calculated from the most recent lowest low and the most recent highest high. If the bulls can break above the pivot, 6475, then then we would most likely reach the next resistance at 6530, and possibly 6580 above that. Would have to be a very very very bullish Friday to enable that latter target to be reached. Think I will try a long around that 6370/6380 area today and see what it does, with a tight stop though as if it doesn’t hold then we are going for 6238. So flip to short. The bulls will want this week to close above 6450 to keep some optimism alive for next week.