Good morning. Well those longs worked out well yesterday morning but the bulls failed to break the 6751 area (glad i closed most there!). In fact the bears took control at that point and we have had a 6705 overnight low, bearish despite the US being closed. Black Friday seems to be everywhere and being mentioned all over the place now, so half day int he US trading wise, ending about 6pm out time. In case your wondering why its called Black Friday, traditionally it was the first day of the year when retailers moved into profit, having been in the red all year. Anyway, today the Bianca channel bottoms have moved a bit lower so that rate of climb is definitely slowing; the 10 day Raff has levelled off a bit too. Early December dip maybe? Oil continuing to decline after Opec said yesterday they weren’t going to cut production, could trigger a few jitters.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
The yen tumbled toward a seven-year low and two-year Japanese government bond yields slid below zero after data showed household spending fell and inflation slowed.
The yen headed for a monthly loss of at least 1.6 percent against all its 16 major peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan will keep expanding stimulus further. The euro dropped for a second day versus the dollar before a report forecast to show the region’s inflation matched the slowest pace since 2009. The Aussie fell and the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar extended losses after OPEC members left the output target unchanged amid oil’s slump into a bear market.
“As dollar buying continues on the back of falling oil prices, the yen is getting sold on higher stocks with an extra boost from the CPI,” said Kengo Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo. “The inflation numbers could stoke expectations for further BOJ easing.”
The yen tumbled 0.5 percent to 118.31 per dollar as of 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo, approaching the seven-year low of 118.98 reached last week. The Japanese currency fell 0.4 percent to 147.27 per euro. The euro declined 0.2 percent to $1.2448.
The yield on two-year Japanese sovereign debt dropped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to minus 0.005 percent.
Inflation Outlook
The BOJ’s key price gauge increased 2.9 percent in October from a year earlier, today’s data showed, equivalent to a 0.9 percent gain when the effects of April’s tax bump are excluded. Retail sales dropped 1.4 percent from September, more than a 0.5 percent decline forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
In Europe, inflation probably slowed to 0.3 percent this month, according to economists in a separate Bloomberg survey before today’s report. That would match the rate in August and September, which was the lowest since October 2009.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against 10 major counterparts, rose 0.3 percent to 1,102.84, on track for its highest close since March 2009. It has gained 0.3 percent this week.
“The U.S. dollar remains strong,” said Imre Speizer, a markets strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Auckland, adding that sentiment toward the yen remains bearish. “The data coming out of the euro zone continues to be weak, and points to more quantitative easing from the ECB.”
Commodity currencies continued their decline after OPEC took no action to ease a global oil-supply glut amid oil’s tumble into a bear market this year.
Australia’s dollar slid 0.5 percent to 85.00 U.S. cents. The krone weakened 0.3 percent to 6.9491 per dollar, after tumbling 1.4 percent yesterday. Canada’s loonie fell 0.2 percent to C$1.1349 per U.S. dollar, adding to yesterday’s 0.7 percent drop. [ref]
FTSE Outlook
Does appear to be weakening and just testing the bottom of both the 20 day Bianca at 6717 and the 20 day Raff at 6700. 10 days are at 6709 Bianca and 6656 Raff. We have swung below the pivot for today so that is now resistance at 6729, and looks a decent shorting area as the 30min also has some PRT resistance lines there, including a declining channel. With he bottom of the daily channels being repeatedly tested and the bulls failing to pull away from those levels does make you think that they might be breaking soon. If the 6700 level breaks then i expect the 10 day raff channel bottom at 6656 and 25ema at 6647 are likely to be hit. Am looking to try a short off the pivot today, but as its Friday and a half day in the US, just go small stakes. If the bulls do push past the pivot then the next resistance is the 6751 level followed by 6767, 6785 and 6800. Top of the 20 day Bianca at 6832, though I would be very surprised if we got that today. Stranger things have happened though!