Good morning. Well yesterday was a bit lacklustre, with not much happening, and when he long off the pivot finally took, did nothing much, then dipped. Annoying! Apart from hitting the pivot, no other significant levels were hit so it was a bit of a non day really, makes a change as Mondays have been a bit choppy recently. Treading water before something major maybe? It is Thanksgiving week of course in the US, which is traditionally bullish, and as you have probably seen, culminates in Black Friday – when everyone goes shopping.
Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark gauge heading for a three-day advance, as consumer and industrial shares climbed as Japanese stocks rallied after a holiday.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) added 0.1 percent to 140.62 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix (TPX) index climbed 0.7 percent after the yen dropped 0.4 percent versus the dollar yesterday.
“More monetary policy easing in China and Europe are helping the market,” said Stephen Halmarick, Sydney-based head of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management, which oversees about $150 billion. “Government policy actions are going to be supportive for risk assets like equities.”
South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.8 percent, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.6 percent.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The underlying equity measure advanced 0.3 percent yesterday, extending a record high after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged to raise inflation as fast as possible and China unexpectedly cut interest rates last week. Reports today may show the U.S. economy grew at a slower rate in the third quarter than first estimated, while consumer confidence probably climbed in November.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were little changed in their most recent trading session. Singapore’s third-quarter economic growth rose an annualized 3.1 percent, beating estimates for a 1.5 percent boost, before markets open in the city-state.
The People’s Bank of China from Nov. 22 lowered the one-year lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent and the one-year saving rate 25 basis points to 2.75 percent, and increased the ceiling for deposit rates. The one-year lending rate will be 5.35 percent in the second quarter of 2015 and the one-year deposit rate will be 2.5 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
FTSE Outlook
Todays pivot is 6738, but i can see an initial rise to just past that at 6744 where we have the declining T3 coral line on the 30min (which is now red). If we get a little dip from there then I expect support to be found at the bottom of the 10 day Bianca channel around 6711 (the 20 day is 6707), and if this area holds then we could use that as a spring board for a push higher early this week. Below here the next support is 6690 (bottom of the Raffs) then 6670, though looking at the 30minute chart and the rising daily trends you would think that the bulls have the upper hand at the moment. Above the 6744 level then the top of the 10 day Bianca is 6780, then the 20 day at 6811, levels that would likely get tested on a push higher.
As long as the 30minute channel holds then we should follow the arrows, though it is noted that the 10 day Bianca channel is narrowing (just a 70 point range) so we will most likely get a breakout at some point soon. Bullish for the moment, but I am still expecting a dip down before a year end rally, looking at 2030 S&P support now for any larger dip.