FTSE Trading – Support 6924, 6909, 6890, 6860, 6745 Resistance 6977, 6998, 7050, 7100, 7170

Good morning. Well the long off the 6836 pivot yesterday held remarkably well and we got a steady rise all day. Well done those that held it all the way to 6900 or more. As expected the Budget was the usual sort of pre-election one, albeit fairly safe. Of course the big news that got everything really fired up was the Fed later in the day. US Indices soared following following the Fed announcement that it plans to raise rates sometime soon, vague enough, but at a slower pace than previously forecast…The ‘patient’ word was dropped from the statement (though Yellen did then say that doesn’t mean they are ‘impatient’) which sent the SPX from 2061 pre-announcement to 2108 at it’s high! The FTSE rallied hard to 6986 whilst the DAX continued it’s slump to as low as 11,812.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rose, heading for a six-month high, after the Federal Reserve said data suggest U.S. economic growth has moderated and officials indicated interest rates will rise at a slower pace than previously forecast.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1 percent to 147.39 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, on course to close at the highest level since Sept. 9. U.S. stocks and bonds jumped Wednesday as the Fed lowered its estimate for where the federal funds rate will be by the end of 2015 to 0.625 percent, versus a December forecast of 1.125 percent. In a new set of quarterly projections, policy makers cut forecasts for economic growth and inflation.

“This is a very important development as it means that the Fed believes that the recent buoyancy in the U.S. labor market has not yet reached a level that warrants a rate hike,” said Matthew Sherwood, head of investment markets research in Sydney at Perpetual Ltd., which manages about $21 billion. “The statement, I think, severely reduced the odds of a June rate hike expected by the market.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 1.3 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index climbed 0.2 percent as data showed its economy grew at its fastest pace since 2007 last quarter from a year earlier. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.9 percent. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.1 percent after the yen jumped on Wednesday.

Fed-funds futures showed a 41 percent chance the central bank will raise its benchmark rate to at least 0.5 percent by September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Prior to Wednesday’s policy statement, the odds were 55 percent.

Yellen is preparing for an exit from the most aggressive easing in the Fed’s 100-year history. The central bank is trying to reconcile a strong labor market with falling inflation as it moves closer to lifting borrowing costs this year.

China Futures
Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index slipped 0.2 percent. Chinese shares on Wednesday rose to the highest level since May 2008 amid near-record turnover on speculation the government will do more to bolster growth. The Shanghai Composite Index has risen 77 percent over the past 12 months. Markets in China and Hong Kong are yet to open.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge surged 1.2 percent on Wednesday. [Ref]

FTSE Trading Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Well all that bull led to a breakout of the daily channels. The top of the 10 day Bianca for initial resistance today is 6977, and support from the IG pivot at 6924. After that exuberance yesterday and a bit more clarification on the future of interest rate rises int eh US i expect a bit of a steady day today – a consolidation if you will, with maybe a dip to test that pivot area before more rises later/tomorrow. I think it will try for 7000 tomorrow, but may struggle a bit today as some profit is taken, so resistance above that 10 day channel is 6998. Readjusting the Raffs after that move puts the top of the 20 day at 6979 and the 10 day at 6993. If these break then 7050 and 7100, and then 7170(!) are the next resistance levels of note.

Support below the pivots (IG is 6924, live charts is 6909, the difference due to the larger out of hours move taken into account with the IG one) is 6890 and then 6860 – a break of this lower one would invalidate the upside potentials and a dip down to the bottom of the Biancas at 6660 would be possible.


  1. Well, that was a cow of a day for me, first daily net loss for 14 trading days 🙁
    I know that trend days are a weakness of my set up, picking tops……live and learn.

    So, the bears were looking for a shorting opportunity and with still some fair time left before an election run up, is this it?

    1. tmpf, how are you doing today? that was a bad move to wipe out all shorts. didn’t had time to close unless you had a stop

      1. Still alive thanks Senu.
        Had a couple of shorts from the 70 area pay off this morning, this weakness could run into a bit of support around 40/50 imo. Selling bounces for the time being.

  2. That was the worst days trading I have ever had (although im still a newbie at this, only really started regularly trading last month!) – cost me £1600 in stops yesterday.

    I am trying to learn from this, normally if I was at my computer I would have chucked a few ‘buys’ in on the way up to hedge the rise and tried to ride it out, but I was out for the day unexpectedly. School boy error for sure 🙁

      1. Lesson learnt with that – I read it wrong, I expected budget would be positive but considered the market would not react so strongly considering all the other uncertainty at the moment with election and Greece. I had some long trades on but they took profit on the way up but the market didnt stop (the ba*t*rd!)

        1. I am betting £1 per point but leverage is 500:1 . I made between 400-500 points a day for the first few weeks on average. Then found myself with stranded shorts when we nearly hit the 7000 a few weeks ago so started playing much safer – closed positions down in panic and lost some profit when I should have been patient. profits down to around 100-200 points per day but exhausting mainly scalping. Big learning curve still, am re-reading “come into my trading room”!

          1. Only trade FTSE at the mo and always trade with a plan. What has caught me out is over trading and then being caught with my pants down!

  3. and i guess that even the most experienced traders cant tell the turns a lot of the time. so i dont think we are alone millendollar.

  4. FTSE bounced off 50 four times now, should we get enough momentum going to get convincing through 60 then I think another attempt at the highs/7000 could be on.
    Conversely, a break of 50 could see us back to 20ish.
    So, long atm @52, 42 stop.

    1. Doesn’t failure to penetrate a resistance level multiple times also insinuate insufficient upward momentum, therefore get short? Looks like we’ll get little pull back to 6,930ish then a push higher.

  5. What happens if we top 7000 in the coming days or weeks? Where would the next resistance level come in? Over 7000 is unchartered territory. Would it be top of the current upward channel?

  6. Not a big short bias across the indices which is positive for my medium term ftse short. I have been swinging between gains and losses all day with a 6955 average. No stop half stake

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