FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 26th April 2021
Friday saw Sterling rise 0.07pc against the US dollar to $1.384, as the weak greenback continued a disappointing week. It was down 0.4pc against the euro at €1.147. Concerns over rising coronavirus cases in Asia, however, stemmed equities gains, as well as reports on Thursday evening that President Biden plans to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.
Markets pushed ever so slightly into the green with the FTSE 100 virtually flat, up just 0.32 points to 6,938.56. The FTSE 250 rose 7.39 points to 22,372.26.
Good Times
China’s economy continued to boom in April from the record growth in the first quarter, with strong exports and rising business confidence supporting the recovery. That’s the outlook of an aggregate index combining eight early indicators tracked by Bloomberg, which remained unchanged from March in strong expansionary territory. Some of the strength this month may be exaggerated by the comparison with April 2020, when the country was still struggling to recover and reopen after a lockdown to contain the world’s first coronavirus cases. Confidence among small and medium-sized enterprises picked up for a second month in a survey of more than 500 companies by Standard Chartered, with the rise in expectations pointing to even stronger performance in the current quarter compared to the first three months of the year.
Recovery Quickens
Stocks are set to open higher in Asia after strong U.S. earnings enforced evidence the recovery from the pandemic is gathering speed. Currencies were steady early Monday. Futures pointed higher in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong after most major groups in the S&P 500 advanced Friday. U.S. new-home sales rebounded in March to the highest since 2006, while output at manufacturers and service providers reached a record high in April. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered below 1.6%. Meanwhile, in 2021’s unchartable U.S. stock market, sell signals have been all but useless.[Bloomberg]
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Most stocks in Asia drifted higher Monday as investors look for clues on the economic recovery in a big earnings week and a Federal Reserve meeting. The dollar and Treasuries slipped.
An MSCI Inc. gauge of the region’s stocks rose, though individual market moves across the region were muted. U.S. futures fluctuated after most major groups in the S&P 500 advanced Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher, though remained below 1.6%.
Copper surged to the highest in a decade on expectations supply will tighten as the global economic recovery gains traction. Oil and gold were little changed. Bitcoin fell to the lowest in seven weeks before bouncing back above $50,000.
Focus turns to the Fed meeting, with policy makers reiterating that they are in no hurry to withdraw support even as the U.S. economy rebounds. U.S. new-home sales rebounded in March to the highest since 2006, while output at manufacturers and service providers reached a record high in April.
A slew of earnings from megacaps including Tesla Inc., Facebook Inc. and Apple Inc. will be parsed as investors look for clues on how companies are faring in the recovery.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Can the FTSE get back above 7000? We have R3 at 7003 for today and may well see any rise today falter here, as the 30min and 2h charts are both bullish to start with suggesting an initial rise. The bulls did well on Friday and the 6890 level held well for a rise towards 6940.
For today we have decent looking support on the 30m at the daily pivot level at 6920 as we also have the coral trend line and 200ema here, so the bulls will be keen to defend this to start with. If that holds then I am expecting a rise towards the 6966 fib level and possibly as high as the 7003 level.
However, if the bears were to break below 6920 then we may well see a slide down to 6890 again, and just below S1 which is at 6896. The key fib is lower down at 6878 but then Monday starts to look quite weak for the FTSE, though the S&P looks like it wants to push on. The S&P wouldn’t want to get left behind by a booming China at the end of the day 😉
The bottom of the 20 day Raff channel is just above S2 at 6866 so if we did start to see a drop I would like to see this level hold. I do think there is more left in the bulls tank though before we see some more downside kick in. the 20 day Raff channel is still heading up nicely at the moment.
For the bulls today the key fib at 6966 is the first level of note above R1 which is at 6950 and the bulls will be keen to push above this. The top of the 10 day Raff channel is at 7036 for today and after the recent drop off 7040 that channel has levelled off quite a bit. Bulls will need to get their skates on today though if we are to get a bull Monday.
We have Durable Goods orders in the US at 1330 today, expected to be 2.5% and better than previously, so that may well give the bulls a bit of a kick up later too.
Good luck today and have a great trading session.
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