FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 27th April 2021
The FTSE 100 has closed up 0.35pc at 6,963. Meanwhile IAG held on to its gains, closing up 4.2pc after that report earlier that US tourists who have had vaccinations might be allowed to visit Europe this year.
Mario Draghi said his plans for a €222bn (£193bn) spending spree were crucial to the future of Italy’s economy, as the former central banker prepares to send the country’s national debt to historic levels.
Germany’s recovery is “treading water” after a third wave of coronavirus and supply chain woes in its all-important car industry put the brakes on business confidence. Businesses had been growing more optimistic but the threat of extended Covid restrictions until June and the underwhelming rollout of vaccines is taking a toll. A closely watched survey by the Ifo think tank showed sentiment inched up from 96.6 last month to 96.8 in April, a marked slowdown as optimism over the outlook cooled.
Vaccine Sharing
The U.S. will send 60 million doses of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine abroad, and President Joe Biden has pledged his full support to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India’s virus surge and vaccine shortage is threatening to prolong the world’s health crisis, but the Biden administration has until now hesitated to give shots to other countries, focusing on vaccinating Americans first. Anthony Fauci says the rollout means a turning point in the pandemic should hit the U.S. “within a few weeks,” CNBC reported. Meanwhile a quarter of EU adults have had their first shot.
Wait and See
Asian stocks are set for a muted open as the earnings season unfolds and amid expectations the Federal Reserve will remain accommodative at its meeting this week despite robust growth. Treasuries and the dollar were steady. Futures in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong were little changed. The S&P 500 Index notched another record high amid solid corporate earnings, with most of the main 11 industry groups gaining. European stocks advanced. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered around its 50-day moving average, well below last month’s peaks.
Sleaze and Cronyism
U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is reeling from incendiary new allegations about his conduct during the pandemic, fueling a row over claims of sleaze and cronyism. The Daily Mail newspaper reported that Johnson said he would rather see “bodies pile high in their thousands” than order a third lockdown, a claim the prime minister denies. Meanwhile Johnson’s former top aide Dominic Cummings claims the prime minister sought to halt a leak inquiry that he feared would implicate a close friend of his fiancee, and alleges Johnson planned to have secret donors pay for a renovation to his official Downing Street apartment. Cummings denies leaking private text messages which appear to show the premier agreeing to “fix” a tax issue for billionaire James Dyson. The accusations come at a highly sensitive time for Johnson’s team.[Bloomberg]
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks slipped Tuesday as traders considered the mounting risks to growth in the region from spiking Covid-19 cases and the implications of a broadening antitrust crackdown in China.
An Asia-Pacific share gauge snapped a three-day climb. Japan underperformed as pandemic-related curbs weighed on sentiment and the nation’s central bank left policy unchanged while cutting its inflation forecast. U.S. stock futures edged up after solid corporate earnings helped the S&P 500 Index to a record.
Shares retreated in China, where regulators are now investigating food-delivery giant Meituan for suspected monopolistic practices, an extension of the campaign to rein in the country’s technology behemoths.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held well below last month’s peaks, and the dollar gained. Oil prices climbed on OPEC+ projections of a strong global recovery, despite the near-term threat of surging Covid-19 cases in India.
While emerging economies from India to Brazil are grappling with the health crisis, the developed world is on a firmer recovery path with a faster pace of vaccinations. U.S. data this week are expected to show growth accelerated to an annualized 6.8% in the first quarter. Such reports aren’t shifting the central bank’s highly accommodative stance, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates on hold and asset purchases unchanged at this week’s meeting.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The bulls managed to get the FTSE up to the 6965 resistance level after a decent rise from the 6920 support area. However we have seen a fairly muted reaction here from the bears which would suggest that more upside is looming, and a possible test of the top of the 10 day Raff channel is on the cards at 7030. However, we do have the key fib at 6995 and just below the round number so we could see a reaction here.
Talking of 10 day Raff channels the S&P is continuing to rise and may well test its channel top at 4220 shortly. That also coincides with the R3 level for today and as such, looks to be a decent area to try some shorts. Can they break above 4200 though!? Fed tomorrow so buy the rumour sell the news maybe…..
Back to the FTSE 100 and the 2h chart remains bullish for today with the coral now green and support at 6913, just below the Hull moving average at 6923. A rise and dip would all fit quite well today, especially if we got a bear Tuesday kicking in later. The ASX200 had a bit of a down day, as did Asia in general.
Above the 6955 level we have R2 at 7007 and then R3 at 7043, the 10 day Raff channel splitting the two at 7030.
Initial support today is at the daily pivot at 6948, and should the bears break below this then 6936 is the 200ema, with S1 lining up with the 2h supports at 6923. The bulls will certainly be keen to defend this level again, as a break would likely see the key fib at 6905 and S2 below that at 6888.
Gold is continuing its rise but is heading into resistance again from the daily 200ema at 1791, together with a red coral on the 2h at 1788. Again, a rise a dip on that possibly today.
So looking at a rise and dip today and mindful of a bear Tuesday ahead of the Fed tomorrow. Good luck today.
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