FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
Robust commodity stocks and rebounding oil prices kept the FTSE 100 positive on a turbulent day for the markets yesterday. The index ended the day up 0.5pc at 7,578.
U.S. futures rose and oil dropped sharply on signs that the Biden administration is considering a massive release of crude from U.S. reserves to combat inflation. A slide in Chinese technology stocks weighed on Asia.
Shares weakened in China and Hong Kong following data showing contraction in Chinese manufacturing, while Japan’s equities steadied, with the yen pulling back after two days of gains. European futures climbed. Earlier, the S&P 500 closed lower for the first time in five days and the Nasdaq 100 dropped as talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled.
Reports that Washington is preparing a plan to release roughly a million barrels of oil a day helped reverse a rebound in crude. The news comes ahead of an OPEC+ supply meeting later Thursday, where the cartel is expected to stick with its strategy of a modest output boost in May.
Falling Out
Russian President Vladimir Putin has been misinformed by advisers about his military’s performance in Ukraine and the effect of sanctions on the economy because they are too afraid to tell him the truth, a White House spokeswoman said. There is now “persistent tension” between Putin and the military, the White House said, refusing to comment on the source of the intelligence. Meanwhile, the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia will seek to join Russia
Poor Performance
Global stocks are on track to end their worst quarter in two years as war in Ukraine puts upward pressure on commodity prices, forcing central banks to become more aggressive in a bid to quell inflation. Asian stocks look poised for a cautious start on Thursday. Futures fell in Japan and were little changed in Australia and Hong Kong after the S&P 500 closed lower for the first time in five days. Meanwhile, stocks in Hong Kong attracted record inflows via ETFs in March, as retail investors took advantage of a historic dip to bet on further gains.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 31st March 2022
Bit of a mixed bag on the FTSE100 yesterday and as its end of month today we may well see some profit taking later on having risen pretty well in March. Get a bit of Q1 profit banked by the big boys…..
Oil has dropped back again and that in turn will see the FTSE100 stumble as Shell and BP are key components of the index. That said I am expecting a bit of a rise and dip to play out today and a pop up towards the 7600 level and possibly a test of the R2 and key fib around the 7610 area. R1 is lower at 7588 and pretty much the overnight high that we have dropped off to test the pivot this morning at 7555.
Above the 7612 level then the bulls would probably manage to take the index to the 7645 R3 level and the mid point on the 20 day Raff channel. We aren’t at the extreme edges of either Raff channel at the moment but are tracking them upwards quite nicely. The daily chart still has that EMA support at 7415 now so any drop down to that level tomorrow or early next week may well see a bounce there. Next week is also statistically quite bullish. We will also have the influx of new ISA cash to help things.
Should we break above 7645 then 7700 is the next obvious level to watch for being the round number, and then the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 7730 above that. Not expecting to see that today though!
For the bears they will be looking to break below the daily pivot at 7555 and that opens up a test of the S1 and 200ema at 7530. 7531 is also S1 and I would like to see this hold for a push up from, though if the bears break that then 7508 is the key fib below that and 7498 for S2. 7474 is S3 and should the weakness really kick in it is possible we see that.
Its been quite choppy trapping both longer term bulls and bears this week so I expect we will see a break out soon – probably up next week.
S&P500
Initial support is at the daily pivot at 4608 and then 4575/4580 below that where we have the key fib and 200ema. The bulls will want to defend that ahead of next week, though I am thinking a rise and dip also for this and a bearish reaction at the 4635 level. The 2h resistance looks key also at 4635.
Dax 40
We may well see both fibs tested today at 14746 and 14532 today, and that would set up a decent range to play. Again, a rise and dip may well play out, though the 2h on this (and the S&P500 in fact) are bearish with 14726 as resistance for the Dax. A rise towards this and the fib may well see the bears have a go here.
Summary
So, looks like we may well see a rise and dip play out today. Bit of profit taking later on as well. GDP has just come in at 6.6% as well, a slight uplift on the 6.5% previously and also forecast. Watch 7555 and 7530 for support. 7610 and 7645 for resistance.
Good luck today.
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