FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
U.S. stocks tumbled into the close, wrapping up their first losing quarter since the pandemic bear market, as Treasuries also pared the worst losses in at least five decades. The FTSE 100 also slipped, weighed down by concerns over the war in Ukraine, closing 0.8% lower to mark its worst session in three weeks.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the country was prepared for new Russian attacks and that no quick resolution to the conflict was expected.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding foreign buyers pay for Russian gas in roubles from Friday or else have their supplies cut.
Moves in most financial markets were muted on the final day of a quarter that brought the twin threats of hawkish central banks bent on tamping down runaway inflation and the war in Ukraine. The S&P 500 declined, taking its loss in the three months to nearly 5%, the most since March 2020. The two-year Treasury yield gained after a 150 basis-point surge that’s the most since 1984. Ten-year rates slipped, narrowing the spread to shorter tenors, as investors remain on edge over the threat a restrictive Federal Reserve will cause a recession. And oil slumped, but held just above $100 a barrel in New York.
U.S. equity futures pushed higher Friday and Asian stocks were mixed as investors evaluated the economic outlook amid moderating oil prices, tightening Federal Reserve policy and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific index came off session lows, aided by turnarounds in Japan and China, where markets continue to expect steps to bolster growth. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts rose and Europe’s were steady following the worst quarter for global stocks since the pandemic bear market.
Oil held losses on a move by the U.S. to release roughly a million barrels a day from reserves to tackle rising energy costs. Russia’s invasion has disrupted commodity flows, fanning prices for everything from fuel to food.
Treasuries dipped and the curve between two-year and 10-year yields remained close to inverting, a pattern that signals worries about an economic downturn if the Fed uses aggressive interest-rate hikes to damp high inflation.
Poor Performance
Stocks looked set to come under pressure Friday after suffering their worst quarter in two years, buffeted by risks from tightening U.S. monetary policy and Russia’s war in Ukraine. A tumble in U.S. shares into the Wall Street close left a cautious mood, pushing futures for Australia, Japan and Hong Kong lower. U.S. contracts made modest gains.
Popularity Surge
Support for President Vladimir Putin has surged among Russians following his invasion of Ukraine, according to the country’s leading independent pollster. Some 83% approved of Putin’s actions as president in a March survey — the highest since 2017. Meanwhile, Putin said he would keep supplying gas to European customers — even as Moscow demanded payment in rubles — saying “Russia values its business reputation.” It’s also offering oil to India at a steep discount. And Singapore’s Prime Minister said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raises “awkward questions” for China.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st April 2022
Last day of the week but we may well see an initial kick up as the new month money flows in, to start with anyway. The US was weaker yesterday with the S&P bulls failing to hold onto the 4600 level, and in fact on this and the FTSE100 it still looks like we will get that dip down to the 25ema at 4456 and 7420 respectively.
We saw the profit taking for quarter end yesterday as profits were banked and gains cemented for Q1 bonus time by the city boys!
The bulls will be keen though to defend the 7500 level to start with this morning and we should get a rise towards the 7575 level where we have some key resistance – R1, key fib and just above the Hull MA on the 2h at 7565. If the bears do appear here the we may well then see a leg down to the 7462 S1 level – and another key fib support level this time here, at 7471.
Above the 7575 level then the 7633 is R2 and could well be tested though the daily level at 7620 is just below this – watch this area for decent resistance. A move back above 7575 and a hold of that move does bode well for the bulls though and could well suggest some further upside on the FTSE100. It’s actually held up pretty well since the drop to 6700 – and we are seasonally entering a stronger period.
That said, whilst 1st April can be quite a strong day, it’s also end of week and a Friday, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see any strength sold into before the late Friday pump from the US.
For the bears, they will be looking to take the FTSE100 below the 7500 level as that will likely mean 7471 gets tested. However a break of that will likely see the 7435 daily support area, with that 25ema mentioned at 7420 below that. I do think the bulls will be keen to defend that 25ema level if its seen (and on the S&P too).
S&P500
Expecting a bit of a rise on this today as well. 4529 is the key fib and just below yesterdays low so I would like to see this level hold, otherwise a slide down to the 4513 S1 level is likely to play out. The bulls will be keen to get the price through the 4575 level where we have 30m resistance (200ema and coral) and then a rise towards the 4620 area where we have the 2h resistance zone – both the coral and Hull MA here.
Dax40
We have had the overnight rise from the 9pm close yesterday and there could be some further upside to play out the morning to get a rise towards the 14569 key fib level. Above this the 2h coral is at 14662 and a second test of the Hull MA here too (we dropped off this at 14730 yesterday). As per the others a rise and dip would fit well today.
Summary
New month money should see an initial kick up but there are strong resistance levels above that may well garner a reaction.
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
Recommended Broker
IC Markets – offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
- Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
- Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
- Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below with just your email address