FTSE 100 Support 7040 7027 7018 7014 6977 6964
FTSE 100 Resistance 7078 7082 7090 7095 7121 7150 7165

Good morning. I hope you had a good weekend. FTSE was interesting on Friday – stopped at 7080 twice and dropped – typically just missing the ideal short entry at 7085. NFP news came in under at 156k versus 171k expected, but the markets seemed to shake that off, with all eyes still on sterling and that overnight move that saw it plunge to 112. A sign of probably where its going to go when Article 50 is triggered next year. Sterling is still at 124 versus the dollar, which of course is helping keep the FTSE 100 above 7000 (most of the UK 100 companies generate most of their revenue abroad), however the 2 hour chart is still showing resistance at 7082. The Bianca channels are climbing fairly steeply though, resistance at 7150 and 7166, with support at 7014 and 6964.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

• Thai assets decline after palace says king’s health unstable
• Chinese markets resume with Japan, Hong Kong shut for holidays

Mexico’s peso pared its climb as investors weighed whether the second presidential debate would affect sentiment toward Donald Trump following a weekend of unprecedented crisis in the Republican nominee’s campaign. Crude extended losses and the yuan weakened.

The peso, seen as a bellwether for traders’ views on Trump’s prospects, jumped as much as 2 percent against the dollar as he was questioned over vulgar comments about women that were captured on video, before trimming gains to 1.3 percent after the debate concluded. Canada’s currency rose with S&P 500 Index futures. China’s yuan fell to the lowest since September 2010 as the nation’s markets opened after a week-long holiday. Oil traded below $50 a barrel, while Samsung Electronics Co. dropped after the phone company was said to halt production of its Galaxy Note 7 smartphone.

During the debate, Trump repeatedly accused Clinton of failing to make any difference in her three decades in public service and Clinton shot back that his words and actions disqualified him for the presidency. Trump’s comments in the video, made a decade ago and aired last week, have spurred some top Republicans to withdraw their support for the candidate. In a telephone poll conducted by CNN immediately after the debate, 57 percent of 537 registered voters who watched said Clinton won the debate, while 34 percent said Trump did.

Markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Taiwan are closed Monday for holidays. Australia updates on foreign-currency reserves and Malaysia reports on palm oil stockpiles and exports. Alcoa Inc. unofficially kicks off the U.S. earnings season.

Currencies

Mexico’s currency added 1.3 percent to 19.0526 per dollar as of 12:22 p.m. in Singapore, after touching 18.9106, its strongest level since Sept. 13.

The peso has depreciated more than 9 percent this year as Trump’s popularity gathered pace amid his calls to renegotiate or end trade deals with Mexico and force the country to pay for a wall along the U.S. border. The currency slid to a record low hours before the first debate on Sept. 26, then rebounded as the discussion got under way amid perceptions Clinton won the day. This time around, the peso surged to the day’s high as Trump sought to dismiss the video comments as “locker room talk”, then pared gains as Trump attacked Clinton for her use of a private e-mail server.“It may well be that the furore over Friday’s video tape leaks is going to have a bigger impact on polls standings in coming days than the debate,” said Ray Attrill, global co-head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “Markets seem to be judging it a no score draw.”

The Canadian dollar, which some strategists have also linked to the presidential race, climbed 0.3 percent as other high-yielding currencies — from Australia’s dollar to the Korean won and the South African rand — strengthened. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, slipped 0.1 percent in a second day of declines.

The British pound retreated 0.3 percent to $1.2403 after ending Friday down 1.4 percent. Sterling slumped more than 6 percent in early Asian trading last session in what was described as a flash crash. The currency is under pressure amid concern Britain will face a so-called hard Brexit.

The yuan lost 0.4 percent to 6.7008 per dollar after weakening to as low as 6.7051. A gauge of dollar strength rose 1 percent last week, when mainland China financial markets were on holiday. Before Monday, there was speculation China’s central bank was preventing the currency from falling below the 6.7 level as it sought to limit capital outflows.

“This sends the signal that the yuan’s future path may be more event-driven, meaning China will allow it to drift lower when there is a big event on the dollar as we saw last week,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore.

Stocks

Thailand’s SET Index tumbled 2.9 percent, while the nation’s bonds and currency also declined after the royal palace said the king’s condition was unstable. The 88-year-old monarch’s health is closely watched as he is revered by many for what they say has been his unifying presence during a seven-decade reign.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.2 percent to 2,151.50 after the underlying benchmark dropped 0.3 percent on Friday.

Odds on the Fed raising rates by the end of the year inched up to 64 percent after Friday’s data, which showed 156,000 workers were added to non-farm payrolls in September, compared with an increase in August that was revised up to 167,000.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.1 percent in Sydney, led higher by raw-material producers and telephone stocks, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index slipped 0.7 percent in a fifth straight day of declines.

Samsung slid more than 3 percent in Seoul. The company temporarily halted production of Note 7 smartphones after customer complaints about safety issues with replacement devices thought to be safe, said a person with direct knowledge of the matter. The decision was made as some U.S. carriers stop sales of the device.

The Shanghai Composite Index climbed 1.3 percent as trading resumed, with oil companies climbing while property developers fell. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks mainland Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong, jumped 3.6 percent last week, its best performance in a month.

Commodities

Gold for immediate delivery added 0.4 percent to $1,262.53 an ounce after holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by the precious metal rose to the highest since 2013.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9 percent to $49.37 a barrel in a second session of losses. U.S. drillers added rigs for a sixth straight week, data from Baker Hughes Inc. showed, while Russia has cast doubt over a deal any time soon with OPEC over production cuts.

Copper rose 0.4 percent, while nickel climbed 2.2 percent. Nickel has advanced 18 percent this year on prospects for disruptions to supply as the Philippine government clamps down on errant miners in the world’s top shipper.

Bonds

Yields on 10-year New Zealand government debt dropped one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 2.51 percent Monday, after rising 23 basis points, or 0.23 percentage point, last week, the most since June last year. Yields on Australian bonds rose one basis point to 2.19 percent.

Similar maturity Treasury notes rallied on Friday, pushing yields down two basis points to 1.72 percent, their first decline all week. Rates were still up 12 basis points in the week, their steepest increase since the first week of August.

Treasuries trading is closed Monday given holidays in Japan and the U.S. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

We still have that resistance on the 2 hour chart at 7082 for today but the FTSE has held up pretty well since the decline from 7130. That said, it hasn’t managed to push on and break through that previous high area. Gold has started to bounce from the lows as well, back above 2160 as I am writing this, so might be starting to indicate a bit of indices weakness. If the bulls break that 7082 area then we will probably see 7150 where we have the top of the 20 day Bianca channel.

Daily pivot is initial support at 7040, with 7027 (200ema 30min) below that, then the 10 day Bianca at 7014. It feels like the FTSE is catching its breath a bit after that rise from 6750 to 7130, though the daily RSI is looking a little toppy at 71 currently (ancillary indicator rather than a standalone one I found with that). So for today, i am watching the 7082 area closely to start with, along with the 7040 and 7027 areas as support.