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Vaccine approved UK | 6350 6336 6302 support | 6402 6434 6495 resistance | US record close

#1 · 2nd December 2020, 9:47 am

Quote from Nick on 2nd December 2020, 9:47 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 2nd December 2020
Global shares rose strongly as investors kicked off December with a risk-on attitude that sent the FTSE 100 up nearly 2pc, or 118.5 points to 6,384.7. Britain’s blue-chip index was the Continent’s top major performer, despite a simultaneous rise from the pound – which broke above $1.34 for the first time since early September.
Amazon.co.uk Widgets
The FTSE 250 performed even better, jumping 2.6pc, or 508.5 points to 19,844.8, with only a handful of mid-caps failing to grab gains.
Security firm G4S rose 8p to 229p, after Bloomberg reported that Canadian counterpart GardaWorld was planning to increase its all-cash bid of 190p-per-share before today’s deadline. It did not confirm a price, though some top G4S shareholders have been pushing for the suitors to raise bids to at least 220p-per-share prior to more serious negotiations.Britain’s domestic stocks were buoyed by a favourable Goldman Sachs note, which said the UK is “a buy” as the Brexit deadline approaches.
The Wall Street bank’s analysts, led by Sharon Bell, said a “thin” trade deal should support the pound, while long-neglected UK-focused stocks could finally catch a break, continuing a steady recovery since early October. “The outperformance of UK domestic so far is small, and we would expect a further bounce relative to European shares assuming a trade agreement,” Ms Bell wrote.
Normal on Hold
A resurgence of the virus is scuppering hopes of a return to normalcy in Hong Kong. A key travel bubble with Singapore was delayed for a second time on Tuesday, some international banks ordered their staff to resume working from home and Carrie Lam, the city’s chief executive, said even parties on yachts are off limits. After a long lull with just a handful of cases a day, the deteriorating situation in Hong Kong prompted the government to impose tighter social-distancing rules and to close schools again.
Chugging Along
The world’s factories are powering along, providing vital support for economies as renewed virus restrictions in some countries take a toll on growth. Indexes of manufacturing activity in the U.S., China and parts of Asia improved in November, and Germany saw solid expansion, according to reports on Tuesday. In South Korea, a bellwether for global trade, exports rose 4%, supported by surging demand for tech devices. The strength of trade activity in recent months is giving a lifeline to the recovery, though the situation remains fragile as the world awaits developments in the race to get a coronavirus vaccine.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks traded mixed Wednesday, after a record close for their U.S. peers, as investors mulled revived fiscal-spending talks and progress on coronavirus vaccines. The dollar held a slide to a more than two-year low and oil extended losses.
Shares outperformed in South Korea, edged higher in Japan and fell in Hong Kong, where China’s No. 2 smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp. dropped the most ever after disclosing a share sale. S&P 500 futures slipped after the gauge closed up more than 1%. European contracts also declined.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
We got the new month money pump up yesterday but despite the bulls breaking above the 6370 level they couldn't really manage to get it past the 6400 resistance level. That remains in play for today and in fact we now have the key fib here as resistance today. They will still be looking to break above this as it opens up a test of the 6433 R1 level, and ultimately the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 6495.
Looking at the S&P, the 3675 level remains the line in the sand for the bulls to break, and if they were to do so then a rise towards the 3700 level still looks likely. They will need to defend the 3650 level which is now 2 hour support, and in fact has held overnight. Talking of the 2 hour supports, the FTSE has locked in at 6335 for today, so should we get a drop down to here then we may well see a bounce. Also just above the 6320 level that has been fairly significant recently.
Should the S&P bears break below the 3640 S1 (and 30m 200ema) then it looks like a drop to 3620 would happen. I am feeling a bounce today though and hopeful that 3645 is the low for the moment.
For the FTSE, below the 6335 support level then the 6220 area still shows as support on the daily chart, with the 25 and 200ema's both in this area. I would expect them to hold if seen soon. They could also be the trigger for a Santa rally on any early December dip. Nearer supports are at 6302 for S1 and 6312 for the key fib. If we get to this area then I am going to go long there today, but I do think that the higher support at 6335 will hold, especially if the S&P doesn't dip below the overnight low at 3645.
Feels like we will see a rise again today and push past the 6400 level. Plans for the roll out of the vaccine are progressing subject to getting it approved with the MoD stepping in to help out with the logistics. The UK adopts the tier lockdown today as well, and an associated uplift in expenditure as restaurants etc can reopen tiers 2 and 1. Brexit is still hovering around in the distance but cable continues to climb, 13412 now, and that may just temper the FTSE in the short term. Pfizer vaccine has got approval and can be rolled out next week.
Buy the dip today feels the right play, and looking for the S&P to push higher still. Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 2nd December 2020

Global shares rose strongly as investors kicked off December with a risk-on attitude that sent the FTSE 100 up nearly 2pc, or 118.5 points to 6,384.7. Britain’s blue-chip index was the Continent’s top major performer, despite a simultaneous rise from the pound – which broke above $1.34 for the first time since early September.
Amazon.co.uk Widgets
The FTSE 250 performed even better, jumping 2.6pc, or 508.5 points to 19,844.8, with only a handful of mid-caps failing to grab gains.

Security firm G4S rose 8p to 229p, after Bloomberg reported that Canadian counterpart GardaWorld was planning to increase its all-cash bid of 190p-per-share before today’s deadline. It did not confirm a price, though some top G4S shareholders have been pushing for the suitors to raise bids to at least 220p-per-share prior to more serious negotiations.Britain’s domestic stocks were buoyed by a favourable Goldman Sachs note, which said the UK is “a buy” as the Brexit deadline approaches.

The Wall Street bank’s analysts, led by Sharon Bell, said a “thin” trade deal should support the pound, while long-neglected UK-focused stocks could finally catch a break, continuing a steady recovery since early October. “The outperformance of UK domestic so far is small, and we would expect a further bounce relative to European shares assuming a trade agreement,” Ms Bell wrote.

Normal on Hold

A resurgence of the virus is scuppering hopes of a return to normalcy in Hong Kong. A key travel bubble with Singapore was delayed for a second time on Tuesday, some international banks ordered their staff to resume working from home and Carrie Lam, the city’s chief executive, said even parties on yachts are off limits. After a long lull with just a handful of cases a day, the deteriorating situation in Hong Kong prompted the government to impose tighter social-distancing rules and to close schools again.

Chugging Along

The world’s factories are powering along, providing vital support for economies as renewed virus restrictions in some countries take a toll on growth. Indexes of manufacturing activity in the U.S., China and parts of Asia improved in November, and Germany saw solid expansion, according to reports on Tuesday. In South Korea, a bellwether for global trade, exports rose 4%, supported by surging demand for tech devices. The strength of trade activity in recent months is giving a lifeline to the recovery, though the situation remains fragile as the world awaits developments in the race to get a coronavirus vaccine.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks traded mixed Wednesday, after a record close for their U.S. peers, as investors mulled revived fiscal-spending talks and progress on coronavirus vaccines. The dollar held a slide to a more than two-year low and oil extended losses.

Shares outperformed in South Korea, edged higher in Japan and fell in Hong Kong, where China’s No. 2 smartphone maker Xiaomi Corp. dropped the most ever after disclosing a share sale. S&P 500 futures slipped after the gauge closed up more than 1%. European contracts also declined.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

We got the new month money pump up yesterday but despite the bulls breaking above the 6370 level they couldn't really manage to get it past the 6400 resistance level. That remains in play for today and in fact we now have the key fib here as resistance today. They will still be looking to break above this as it opens up a test of the 6433 R1 level, and ultimately the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 6495.

Looking at the S&P, the 3675 level remains the line in the sand for the bulls to break, and if they were to do so then a rise towards the 3700 level still looks likely. They will need to defend the 3650 level which is now 2 hour support, and in fact has held overnight. Talking of the 2 hour supports, the FTSE has locked in at 6335 for today, so should we get a drop down to here then we may well see a bounce. Also just above the 6320 level that has been fairly significant recently.

Should the S&P bears break below the 3640 S1 (and 30m 200ema) then it looks like a drop to 3620 would happen. I am feeling a bounce today though and hopeful that 3645 is the low for the moment.

For the FTSE, below the 6335 support level then the 6220 area still shows as support on the daily chart, with the 25 and 200ema's both in this area. I would expect them to hold if seen soon. They could also be the trigger for a Santa rally on any early December dip. Nearer supports are at 6302 for S1 and 6312 for the key fib. If we get to this area then I am going to go long there today, but I do think that the higher support at 6335 will hold, especially if the S&P doesn't dip below the overnight low at 3645.

Feels like we will see a rise again today and push past the 6400 level. Plans for the roll out of the vaccine are progressing subject to getting it approved with the MoD stepping in to help out with the logistics. The UK adopts the tier lockdown today as well, and an associated uplift in expenditure as restaurants etc can reopen tiers 2 and 1. Brexit is still hovering around in the distance but cable continues to climb, 13412 now, and that may just temper the FTSE in the short term. Pfizer vaccine has got approval and can be rolled out next week.

Buy the dip today feels the right play, and looking for the S&P to push higher still. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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