Quote from Nick on 17th April 2020, 8:22 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th April 2020

• Another 5.2m Americans made initial jobless claims last week
• Four-week total rises to about 22m
• Weaker pound supports FTSE as markets fall again
• Shell unveils ambition to be net zero by 2050
• ONS says one in four businesses has temporarily stopped trading due to Covid-19

Over 5.2m Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, in the latest evidence of the devastating impact Covid-19 is having on the US labour market. The increase – down from 6.6m initial claims the previous week – brings the four-week total to a staggering 22m.  Remarkably, that erases almost all of the 22.8m jobs that were created during the ten-year economic rebound following the financial crisis, which the coronavirus has brought to a clattering halt. Jobs are being shed on a scale unseen since the Great Depression, and the US Government has been struggling to manage its response to the economic disruption being caused.

• European stock markets mostly climbed today as investors focused on plans to ease some coronavirus lockdown restrictions.
• Meanwhile US investors largely brushed off another 5.2 million first-time unemployment claims, which took the number of jobs lost since mid-March to 22 million, as President Trump was to announce plans for lifting lockdowns in the world's top economy.
• Oil prices diverged, a day after hitting an 18-year low as traders believe that a producers' deal to slash output is not large enough to offset a crash in demand caused by coronavirus fallout.

The FTSE 100 climbed 0.55pc today to 5,628.43 while the FTSE 250 jumped 0.20pc to 15,378.57.

Trial drug

A group of coronavirus patients being treated with Gilead’s trial drug remdesivir in Chicago are “seeing rapid recoveries in fever and respiratory symptoms,” according to a new report. The news triggered a 4.4% climbfor the biopharmaceutical company post-market Thursday. Gilead’s drug is one of the most-watched therapies being studied for treatment of Covid-19 patients. Meanwhile, the governor of New York extended a lockdown to May 15 and U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled guidelines on reopening the U.S. economy that could allow states and employers to abandon most social distancing practices within four weeks. The U.K. added three weeks to its restrictions as total infections exceeded 100,000 and new cases also climbed in Italy, Spain and Germany. Singapore reported its highest daily increase for a second day. New Zealand is now seeking to wipe out the virus after an early lockdown success.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Asian stocks climbed with U.S. and European futures amid tentative steps to restart the American economy and progress on the fight against the coronavirus. Traders looked past Chinese data showing its economy contracted for the first time in decades.

A strong rise in futures prices last night, mostly down to some progress in drug trials and also the fact that Trump is pushing to get things opening again, sooner rather than later. As such we may well see a bit of a pullback at the open to attempt a gap close with yesterdays closing price, though there is decent looking support at the 5700 where we have the 30min 200ema and the daily pivot for today. We may not get this low though as the exuberance from the futures may get the bulls quick out the blocks and a rise towards the daily coral resistance at 5875 looks to be on the cards. Dip and rise to there looks to be the pattern that will play out. We also have R1 at 5860.

Just looking at the S&P and it has now broken above the 2850 resistance with a test o0f R1 at 2931 looking likely for today. We may well see a stumble here ahead of the weekend, and a bit of a dip back, on the assumption that the rise was fuelled by the early promising drug trial signs, but that could change over the weekend. With the 2 hour chart now bullish, a drop from 2931 to 2830 would fit quite well as we now have support there.

For the FTSE, if they were to break above the 5875 level then 5946 is next up where we have R2. You will remember a while back that I had mooted 6200 as a possible big picture upside target - well the top of the 10 day Raff is now at 6160. I am not convinced we get that high before we see another pullback but its interesting that area is appearing again as resistance. Something to bear in mind.

So, Friday so slightly more cautious today but expecting a rise and dip pattern and watching 5875 and 5950 as the main resistance levels. 5700 and 5675 as the main supports.

Good luck today and have a great weekend.

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