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US inflation rises | UK GDP drops 0.3% | 7205 7117 support | 7345 7435 resistance

#1 · 13th June 2022, 11:06 am

Quote from Nick on 13th June 2022, 11:06 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 dropped sharply on Friday after data showed a surprise surge in US inflation to a fresh 40-year high, sparking a sell-off across global markets.
The blue-chip index tumbled more than 2pc, putting it on track for its worst week of losses since the early days of the Ukraine war in March.
Meanwhile, Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 also dropped more than 2pc, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 plunged 2.4pc.
It came after the US consumer price index rose to 8.6pc in May from 8.3pc the month before, defying hopes that inflation would start to cool.
The figures fuelled worries about aggressive interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, with traders betting on three consecutive 50 basis-point increases.
The Bank of England is also expected to lift rates at a meeting this week.
Asian stocks dropped and bond yields surged on Monday following a fresh high in American inflation that heaped pressure on the Federal Reserve to intensify monetary tightening. The yen reached a 24-year low.
Equities shed 2.7% across Asian markets. Tech shares in Hong Kong declined by almost 4%, weighing on the broader Hang Seng index, while there were also heavy losses in Japan.
Adding Pressure
US equity futures slid early Monday following a surprise American inflation print that heaped pressure on the Federal Reserve to intensify monetary tightening. Nasdaq 100 contracts shed more than 1%, while those for the S&P 500 fell a little less than that, in the wake of steep losses on Wall Street that contributed to the worst drop in global shares last week since October 2020. Asian futures indicate declines loom for stocks in Japan and Hong Kong. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is facing an increasingly grim choice: He probably has to push the US economy into recession in order to regain control of inflation.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th June 2022
Well its a bit of a bearish start to the week as the US and FTSE futures have declined sharply from Fridays closing level. That has left a gap on the FTSE100 at the 7345 level though so if we see any sort of bounce today it will be looking to get to that level. With this bearish start we have also dipped below both the Raff channels to start with, and that is usually a harbinger of further declines to come. The bulls have failed to defend the 25ema on the daily last week, not helped by the constant flow of pessimistic news. However, for the moment its still above 7000!
Initial support is at the overnight low at the 7250 level and we have a fib to start with at 7240. Below this then S2 at 7205 is the next level of note. If we were to get there then we may well see a bounce here, though I am thinking that we could see a bit of a bounce to start with this morning. The bulls may struggle to get too much past that gap though, as we then have the daily pivot just above at the 7363 level.
If we do get any sort of climb that builds, then I would be looking for a test of the Hull MA on the 2h at the 7385 level as we havent tested that as yet since it went bearish last week. The 2h coral is now also red (showing a downtrend), with 7485 area as resistance though I am not expecting it to get that high today.
In a further sign of the bears strength we have broken below the 200ema on the daily at, funnily enough 7345, so again, this lends weight to this price now becoming resistance.
Below 7205, worth mentioning in case it gets very bearish today, is 7117 S3. News out this morning is that GDP fell 0.3% in April and is now 0.9% above its pre-pandemic level. Services fell 0.3%, Manufacturing fell 1.0% and Construction fell 0.4%.
S&P500
As with the FTSE100 we have a gap to close on this, with 3907 being the level to watch. As I write this its 3830 so the bulls do have a lot of work to do today if we are to see that. Initial support is at the S2 level of 3812, and again we have broken below the Raff channels as you can see on the daily chart. If the bulls do step up then a rise towards the 3908 level and then 3945 daily pivot above that. Does seem a big ask though against the current backdrop!
Good luck today, stay nimble!
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 dropped sharply on Friday after data showed a surprise surge in US inflation to a fresh 40-year high, sparking a sell-off across global markets.

The blue-chip index tumbled more than 2pc, putting it on track for its worst week of losses since the early days of the Ukraine war in March.

Meanwhile, Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 also dropped more than 2pc, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 plunged 2.4pc.

It came after the US consumer price index rose to 8.6pc in May from 8.3pc the month before, defying hopes that inflation would start to cool.

The figures fuelled worries about aggressive interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, with traders betting on three consecutive 50 basis-point increases.

The Bank of England is also expected to lift rates at a meeting this week.

Asian stocks dropped and bond yields surged on Monday following a fresh high in American inflation that heaped pressure on the Federal Reserve to intensify monetary tightening. The yen reached a 24-year low.

Equities shed 2.7% across Asian markets. Tech shares in Hong Kong declined by almost 4%, weighing on the broader Hang Seng index, while there were also heavy losses in Japan.

Adding Pressure
US equity futures slid early Monday following a surprise American inflation print that heaped pressure on the Federal Reserve to intensify monetary tightening. Nasdaq 100 contracts shed more than 1%, while those for the S&P 500 fell a little less than that, in the wake of steep losses on Wall Street that contributed to the worst drop in global shares last week since October 2020. Asian futures indicate declines loom for stocks in Japan and Hong Kong. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is facing an increasingly grim choice: He probably has to push the US economy into recession in order to regain control of inflation.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th June 2022

Well its a bit of a bearish start to the week as the US and FTSE futures have declined sharply from Fridays closing level. That has left a gap on the FTSE100 at the 7345 level though so if we see any sort of bounce today it will be looking to get to that level. With this bearish start we have also dipped below both the Raff channels to start with, and that is usually a harbinger of further declines to come. The bulls have failed to defend the 25ema on the daily last week, not helped by the constant flow of pessimistic news. However, for the moment its still above 7000!

Initial support is at the overnight low at the 7250 level and we have a fib to start with at 7240. Below this then S2 at 7205 is the next level of note. If we were to get there then we may well see a bounce here, though I am thinking that we could see a bit of a bounce to start with this morning. The bulls may struggle to get too much past that gap though, as we then have the daily pivot just above at the 7363 level.

If we do get any sort of climb that builds, then I would be looking for a test of the Hull MA on the 2h at the 7385 level as we havent tested that as yet since it went bearish last week. The 2h coral is now also red (showing a downtrend), with 7485 area as resistance though I am not expecting it to get that high today.

In a further sign of the bears strength we have broken below the 200ema on the daily at, funnily enough 7345, so again, this lends weight to this price now becoming resistance.

Below 7205, worth mentioning in case it gets very bearish today, is 7117 S3. News out this morning is that GDP fell 0.3% in April and is now 0.9% above its pre-pandemic level. Services fell 0.3%, Manufacturing fell 1.0% and Construction fell 0.4%.

S&P500
As with the FTSE100 we have a gap to close on this, with 3907 being the level to watch. As I write this its 3830 so the bulls do have a lot of work to do today if we are to see that. Initial support is at the S2 level of 3812, and again we have broken below the Raff channels as you can see on the daily chart. If the bulls do step up then a rise towards the 3908 level and then 3945 daily pivot above that. Does seem a big ask though against the current backdrop!

Good luck today, stay nimble!

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates