Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members

ForumTrading Forum with market discussion and live trades: Market DiscussionUS Inflation Data today | Lower t …

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

US Inflation Data today | Lower than previous | 7440 7414 support | 7480 7520 resistance | Buy the dip

#1 · 13th December 2022, 10:17 am

Quote from Nick on 13th December 2022, 10:17 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th December 2022
Stocks in Asia came off their session highs as investors redirected their focus toward US inflation data that may shape the outlook for interest-rate hikes into next year.
A fairly lacklustre day yesterday for the FTSE100 ahead of the US CPI figure today. The S&P however was either subject to a pump and dump, or more likely was privy to the CPI dat early as it managed a strong rally from the 3930 level towards 4000. We will find out later! JPMorgan said this "The most likely scenario, the team says, is a CPI print between 7.2% to 7.4% where the S&P 500 climbs by 2% to 3%."
For the FTSE100, I am looking at a possible bull Tuesday is a change to the norm, mainly as yesterday wasn't the most optimistic bull Monday we have had. The monthly GDP figure coming in at 0.5% with a slight uptick did help a bit, but overall nothing of any substance. Initial resistance is at the 7482 level where we have R1 and the 200ema for the 30m chart, and as such I would expect any rise to stall here and drop down to test the 7440 level.
7440 looks to be a decent support level as we have the 2h Hull MA here, and also S1 for today. If the bulls can defend this level then I can see us popping through 7500 today to test the daily resistance level at 7520.
With it being flat yesterday everything gets a bit compressed so a break out one way or the other from the key levels is fairly likely, especially given the news impact today.
7520 is R3 as well as daily resistance so a move above this will be fairly key and could start the Santa Rally. I mentioned yesterday about the seasonality and that it usually kicks in this week so it would certainly fit. Generally I am feeling more bullish now for the rest of December. Back to buy the dip!
Above 7520 then the top of the 10d Raff is at 7570 and the next level that I would like to see tested (and broken!). 7600 above that for the round number. Can we add 200 for a year end close around 7800?!
Support wise, below 7440 then 7420 once again is S2 and still the key level, though below this the daily support at 7365 is the rising trend line on the very long timeframe charts and a level that could prove significant. 7428 is still the daily 25ema as well and whilst we haven't tested it exactly this whole area is decent swing long territory for me (7365 to 7420).
So could be an interesting day and don't forget the US CPI, out at 1330, with 7.3% forecasted, versus 7.7% previously.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th December 2022

Stocks in Asia came off their session highs as investors redirected their focus toward US inflation data that may shape the outlook for interest-rate hikes into next year.

A fairly lacklustre day yesterday for the FTSE100 ahead of the US CPI figure today. The S&P however was either subject to a pump and dump, or more likely was privy to the CPI dat early as it managed a strong rally from the 3930 level towards 4000. We will find out later! JPMorgan said this "The most likely scenario, the team says, is a CPI print between 7.2% to 7.4% where the S&P 500 climbs by 2% to 3%."

For the FTSE100, I am looking at a possible bull Tuesday is a change to the norm, mainly as yesterday wasn't the most optimistic bull Monday we have had. The monthly GDP figure coming in at 0.5% with a slight uptick did help a bit, but overall nothing of any substance. Initial resistance is at the 7482 level where we have R1 and the 200ema for the 30m chart, and as such I would expect any rise to stall here and drop down to test the 7440 level.

7440 looks to be a decent support level as we have the 2h Hull MA here, and also S1 for today. If the bulls can defend this level then I can see us popping through 7500 today to test the daily resistance level at 7520.

With it being flat yesterday everything gets a bit compressed so a break out one way or the other from the key levels is fairly likely, especially given the news impact today.

7520 is R3 as well as daily resistance so a move above this will be fairly key and could start the Santa Rally. I mentioned yesterday about the seasonality and that it usually kicks in this week so it would certainly fit. Generally I am feeling more bullish now for the rest of December. Back to buy the dip!

Above 7520 then the top of the 10d Raff is at 7570 and the next level that I would like to see tested (and broken!). 7600 above that for the round number. Can we add 200 for a year end close around 7800?!

Support wise, below 7440 then 7420 once again is S2 and still the key level, though below this the daily support at 7365 is the rising trend line on the very long timeframe charts and a level that could prove significant. 7428 is still the daily 25ema as well and whilst we haven't tested it exactly this whole area is decent swing long territory for me (7365 to 7420).

So could be an interesting day and don't forget the US CPI, out at 1330, with 7.3% forecasted, versus 7.7% previously.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates