Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members

ForumTrading Forum with market discussion and live trades: Market DiscussionUS Inflation data today | 7144 71 …

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

US Inflation data today | 7144 7115 7097 support | 7195 7220 7255 resistance

#1 · 13th July 2022, 10:01 am

Quote from Nick on 13th July 2022, 10:01 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 remained fairly flat for the second day running, ending slightly in the green as airline stocks took off. The owner of British Airways, IAG, was top of the table in the index, while its smaller peers Wizz Air and easyJet performed well on the FTSE 250. The FTSE 100 closed up 0.2pc at 7,209.86.
Asian stocks and US equity futures edged up Wednesday in cautious trading dominated by a dimming economic outlook and an anxious wait for data that may show US inflation at a fresh four-decade high.
MSCI Inc.’s regional share gauge added about 0.5%, bolstered by a rebound in Chinese technology shares. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were in the green, but European contracts dipped.
Asian stocks gained on Wednesday, taking back some of their recent losses, while the euro hovered just above parity against the dollar ahead of a highly anticipated U.S. inflation report later in the global day.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.65%, snapping two straight days of losses, after having slumped to its lowest in two years the day before.
But most moves felt insubstantial ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data for June, which economists polled by Reuters expect to have accelerated by 8.8% on an annual basis, a 40-year peak.
A high inflation print would likely be read by the U.S. Federal Reserve as a sign they need to continue with aggressive interest rate rises to get on top of surging prices, even if this might push the economy into recession.
The Fed increased rates by a supersized 75 basis points in its last meeting.
Oil prices paused their overnight declines. Brent crude was little changed at $99.55 a barrel with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude at $95.78.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th July 2022
Well we certainly got the rise and then dip yesterday, though the FTSE100 nudged the 7220 resistance later in the day. The S&P500 did a cheeky stop hunt up to the 3875 before dropping right back to 3800. Overnight the bulls have hung in there and a stronger Asian session has helped. Of course the big news is out today in terms of US inflation so everything is cautious ahead of that.
I am thinking that we may well see an initial drop down to test the supports again and then a bit of a climb as we approach the news release. Buy the rumour, sell the news type pattern again.
Initial support is at the 200ema on the 30m at 7178, but a break of this (as looks possible) will probably see a drop down to the 7140 area where we have S1 and the key fib for today. I would like to see this level hold.
This is also the mid point of the 10d Raff channel, and ties in with the level we dropped off too last night. If this holds then a climb from here should among to retest the 7220 level again.
Below 7140 then 7097 is S2 and 7093 is daily support. A break of this (and would probably tie in with the S&P breaking 3780) and we will likely see a slide back down to the 7000 level. Which would hopefully hold! That seems a very pessimistic move down today, and I am thinking that we will see 7140 hold.
For the bulls, that 7220 remains the line in the sand. Above that then the 7239 level is the key fib and then 7255 for daily resistance. I still fancy a test of the 200ema on the daily chart currently at 7311. Might be a big ask for today, but we have just had a decent UK GDP figure come out with YoY (May) of 3.5% versus 2.7% forecasted. House sales are dropping fast though....... usually a good barometer.
S&P500
The bulls really need to defend the 3800 level again today but a lot will hinge on the inflation data out at 1330. If this holds then a rise towards the 3861 (maybe prior to the news) would fit well, though the 2h chart is bearish still with 3860 and then 3874 as key resistance. Keep an eye on these 2 levels. Below 3800 then 3780 is S1 and the next crucial level for the bulls to defend, otherwise it starts to slide quite fast. 3780 also ties in with the bottom of the 10d Raff channel.
Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 remained fairly flat for the second day running, ending slightly in the green as airline stocks took off. The owner of British Airways, IAG, was top of the table in the index, while its smaller peers Wizz Air and easyJet performed well on the FTSE 250. The FTSE 100 closed up 0.2pc at 7,209.86.

Asian stocks and US equity futures edged up Wednesday in cautious trading dominated by a dimming economic outlook and an anxious wait for data that may show US inflation at a fresh four-decade high.

MSCI Inc.’s regional share gauge added about 0.5%, bolstered by a rebound in Chinese technology shares. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were in the green, but European contracts dipped.

Asian stocks gained on Wednesday, taking back some of their recent losses, while the euro hovered just above parity against the dollar ahead of a highly anticipated U.S. inflation report later in the global day.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.65%, snapping two straight days of losses, after having slumped to its lowest in two years the day before.

But most moves felt insubstantial ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data for June, which economists polled by Reuters expect to have accelerated by 8.8% on an annual basis, a 40-year peak.

A high inflation print would likely be read by the U.S. Federal Reserve as a sign they need to continue with aggressive interest rate rises to get on top of surging prices, even if this might push the economy into recession.

The Fed increased rates by a supersized 75 basis points in its last meeting.

Oil prices paused their overnight declines. Brent crude was little changed at $99.55 a barrel with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude at $95.78.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 13th July 2022

Well we certainly got the rise and then dip yesterday, though the FTSE100 nudged the 7220 resistance later in the day. The S&P500 did a cheeky stop hunt up to the 3875 before dropping right back to 3800. Overnight the bulls have hung in there and a stronger Asian session has helped. Of course the big news is out today in terms of US inflation so everything is cautious ahead of that.

I am thinking that we may well see an initial drop down to test the supports again and then a bit of a climb as we approach the news release. Buy the rumour, sell the news type pattern again.

Initial support is at the 200ema on the 30m at 7178, but a break of this (as looks possible) will probably see a drop down to the 7140 area where we have S1 and the key fib for today. I would like to see this level hold.

This is also the mid point of the 10d Raff channel, and ties in with the level we dropped off too last night. If this holds then a climb from here should among to retest the 7220 level again.

Below 7140 then 7097 is S2 and 7093 is daily support. A break of this (and would probably tie in with the S&P breaking 3780) and we will likely see a slide back down to the 7000 level. Which would hopefully hold! That seems a very pessimistic move down today, and I am thinking that we will see 7140 hold.

For the bulls, that 7220 remains the line in the sand. Above that then the 7239 level is the key fib and then 7255 for daily resistance. I still fancy a test of the 200ema on the daily chart currently at 7311. Might be a big ask for today, but we have just had a decent UK GDP figure come out with YoY (May) of 3.5% versus 2.7% forecasted. House sales are dropping fast though....... usually a good barometer.

S&P500
The bulls really need to defend the 3800 level again today but a lot will hinge on the inflation data out at 1330. If this holds then a rise towards the 3861 (maybe prior to the news) would fit well, though the 2h chart is bearish still with 3860 and then 3874 as key resistance. Keep an eye on these 2 levels. Below 3800 then 3780 is S1 and the next crucial level for the bulls to defend, otherwise it starts to slide quite fast. 3780 also ties in with the bottom of the 10d Raff channel.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates