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US CPI data out today | 7380 7347 support | 7477 7530 resistance | All gone bearish!

#1 · 10th June 2022, 12:50 pm

Quote from Nick on 10th June 2022, 12:50 pm
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 extended its losses yesterday after the ECB sparked fresh fears of interest rate rises. The blue-chip index slid 1.2pc, with retailers Sainsbury's, B&Q owner Kingfisher and Ocado among the biggest fallers.
While the ECB held interest rates steady at yesterday's meeting, it signalled a rise in borrowing costs in July in September, ending the eurozone's long experiment with negative rates.
Stocks extended a selloff Friday, putting global shares on course for their worst weekly performance in a month, as the twin blows of high inflation and slowing economic growth stir investor anxiety.
An Asian equity index shed 1%, sapped by Japan. European futures retreated and US contracts wavered after the S&P 500 lost 2.4% on Thursday.
Chinese tech shares including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. bucked the trend, reversing an early-session swoon. Investors are trying to work out whether Beijing’s easing regulatory clampdown on internet firms supports speculation that the initial public offering of Jack Ma’s Ant Group Co. could be revived.
Short-dated US Treasury yields hovered near 2022 peaks following a selloff in euro-area bonds after the European Central Bank opened the door to a half-point interest-rate hike in the fall.
Price pressures and ensuing monetary tightening have wiped out $7.8 trillion of global bond-market value year-to-date. The US inflation print on Friday is the next test for markets. The figures will provide clues about how aggressively the Federal Reserve must raise rates. The data are expected to show annual consumer-price gains of more than 8%.
In commodities, oil edged lower in part on concerns about demand as Shanghai prepares to lock down seven districts this weekend to conduct Covid testing.
‘Profound Divisions’
US relations with China are likely in the worst state since former President Richard Nixon’s historic trip in 1972 helped re-establish diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing, according to Nicholas Burns, the current American ambassador to the Asian nation. He said there were “profound divisions” between the rival powers on everything from economics and technology to security and human rights.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th June 2022
That all got rather bearish yesterday as the US fell off a cliff, unfortunately just after tagging the stop on the S&P short we had! The FTSE100 broke through the daily support at the 7500 level a bit too easily, and also the 7480 coral support. Will it be a massive fake break or are the bulls losing? The market was a bit spooked by Boris's sub prime mortgage plan as well - echos of 2008 with that! The difference this time being it's the government bankrolling the mortgage payments.....
Anyway, we have dropped down to the 7410 support level again, and as such we may well see an initial climb this morning as we retrace a bit of that fall. I am looking at a rise towards the daily pivot to start with today at 7478. If the bulls were able to break above that then the 7530 area is next up where we have the 30m 200ema and R1 at 7534 as well. That area looks decent resistance as we also have the Hull MA here on the 2h.
The bears meanwhile will be looking to break below the 7410 level as that will likely lead to the 7380 level, whereupon we may well see a bounce as we have the bottom of the 20d Raff here. A break of this then the daily 200ema at 7347 is next up and S2 at 7324 below that. That would be quite a bearish end to the week if we start seeing those levels, and with the US CPI out this afternoon at 1330.
The US CPI is forecasted to have dropped slightly to 5.9% from 6.2% previously for May, while YoY remains at 8.3%. Are we past peak inflation!? If we are that could kick start a bounce for the bulls today.
S&P500
It's defended 4020 well overnight and below this the next key support is around the 3980 level. If we do see this then the bulls will need to hold onto that and get the price back above the 4060 level ideally. 4035 is resistance before that. Below the 3980 then the 3950 level is both the Raff channel bottoms, so we could see a reaction here, otherwise its S2 at 3931. I don't think we will get that low unless CPI disappoints.
Overall, its a pretty interesting picture with markets walking a fine line between "fear" and "not quite as much fear" currently! The daily chart on the FTSE100 remains bullish just about but the bulls need to get the pice back above 7485 ideally where we have the daily coral. Its quite rare for the daily supports to not get much of a reaction (the support at 7510 yesterday garnered a few points but was surrendered pretty quickly). A such we could see a bit of a dead cat bounce today.
As its Friday it can be prudent to be a bit more cautious - lower stakes etc. You're probably bored of me mentioning that each Friday!
Good luck today and have a great weekend.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 extended its losses yesterday after the ECB sparked fresh fears of interest rate rises. The blue-chip index slid 1.2pc, with retailers Sainsbury's, B&Q owner Kingfisher and Ocado among the biggest fallers.

While the ECB held interest rates steady at yesterday's meeting, it signalled a rise in borrowing costs in July in September, ending the eurozone's long experiment with negative rates.

Stocks extended a selloff Friday, putting global shares on course for their worst weekly performance in a month, as the twin blows of high inflation and slowing economic growth stir investor anxiety.

An Asian equity index shed 1%, sapped by Japan. European futures retreated and US contracts wavered after the S&P 500 lost 2.4% on Thursday.

Chinese tech shares including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. bucked the trend, reversing an early-session swoon. Investors are trying to work out whether Beijing’s easing regulatory clampdown on internet firms supports speculation that the initial public offering of Jack Ma’s Ant Group Co. could be revived.

Short-dated US Treasury yields hovered near 2022 peaks following a selloff in euro-area bonds after the European Central Bank opened the door to a half-point interest-rate hike in the fall.

Price pressures and ensuing monetary tightening have wiped out $7.8 trillion of global bond-market value year-to-date. The US inflation print on Friday is the next test for markets. The figures will provide clues about how aggressively the Federal Reserve must raise rates. The data are expected to show annual consumer-price gains of more than 8%.

In commodities, oil edged lower in part on concerns about demand as Shanghai prepares to lock down seven districts this weekend to conduct Covid testing.

‘Profound Divisions’
US relations with China are likely in the worst state since former President Richard Nixon’s historic trip in 1972 helped re-establish diplomatic ties between Washington and Beijing, according to Nicholas Burns, the current American ambassador to the Asian nation. He said there were “profound divisions” between the rival powers on everything from economics and technology to security and human rights.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th June 2022

That all got rather bearish yesterday as the US fell off a cliff, unfortunately just after tagging the stop on the S&P short we had! The FTSE100 broke through the daily support at the 7500 level a bit too easily, and also the 7480 coral support. Will it be a massive fake break or are the bulls losing? The market was a bit spooked by Boris's sub prime mortgage plan as well - echos of 2008 with that! The difference this time being it's the government bankrolling the mortgage payments.....

Anyway, we have dropped down to the 7410 support level again, and as such we may well see an initial climb this morning as we retrace a bit of that fall. I am looking at a rise towards the daily pivot to start with today at 7478. If the bulls were able to break above that then the 7530 area is next up where we have the 30m 200ema and R1 at 7534 as well. That area looks decent resistance as we also have the Hull MA here on the 2h.

The bears meanwhile will be looking to break below the 7410 level as that will likely lead to the 7380 level, whereupon we may well see a bounce as we have the bottom of the 20d Raff here. A break of this then the daily 200ema at 7347 is next up and S2 at 7324 below that. That would be quite a bearish end to the week if we start seeing those levels, and with the US CPI out this afternoon at 1330.

The US CPI is forecasted to have dropped slightly to 5.9% from 6.2% previously for May, while YoY remains at 8.3%. Are we past peak inflation!? If we are that could kick start a bounce for the bulls today.

S&P500
It's defended 4020 well overnight and below this the next key support is around the 3980 level. If we do see this then the bulls will need to hold onto that and get the price back above the 4060 level ideally. 4035 is resistance before that. Below the 3980 then the 3950 level is both the Raff channel bottoms, so we could see a reaction here, otherwise its S2 at 3931. I don't think we will get that low unless CPI disappoints.

Overall, its a pretty interesting picture with markets walking a fine line between "fear" and "not quite as much fear" currently! The daily chart on the FTSE100 remains bullish just about but the bulls need to get the pice back above 7485 ideally where we have the daily coral. Its quite rare for the daily supports to not get much of a reaction (the support at 7510 yesterday garnered a few points but was surrendered pretty quickly). A such we could see a bit of a dead cat bounce today.

As its Friday it can be prudent to be a bit more cautious - lower stakes etc. You're probably bored of me mentioning that each Friday!

Good luck today and have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates