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US closed for Thanksgiving | SPX support 3629 | FTSE 100 6365 6350 6283 support | 6418 6480 resistance

#1 · 26th November 2020, 9:43 am

Quote from Nick on 26th November 2020, 9:43 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 26th November 2020
The FTSE 100 fell steadily on Wednesday as investors take in Sunak's announcements and the OBR's stats. London's benchmark was down almost 1pc.
Rishi Sunak warned the UK’s economy emergency “has only just begun” as he launched new fiscal measures in the face of dire forecasts for growth and unemployment. The Chancellor unveiled a £4.3bn package of jobs support and announced an increase to the minimum wage for over-23s as part of a one-year Spending Review.
His announcements came as the Office for Budget Responsibility released its latest set of economic forecasts. The fiscal watchdog warned the UK economy will shrink some 11.3pc this year, with unemployment set to rise to 7.5pc next year once the furlough scheme winds down. The OBR said borrowing will hit £384bn this year, or 19.4pc of total GDP – a peacetime record. It warned that in its central scenario, £21bn in tax hikes and spending cuts would be needed to stop debt rising relative to GDP – although the Government has not yet signalled whether it would be troubled by such an outcome.
Chinese Congratulations
China’s President Xi Jinping broke his silence on Joe Biden’s election victory, sending the U.S. president-elect a message that he hopes to “manage differences” and focus on cooperation between the world’s two largest economies. The congratulatory note said China wants to advance a “healthy and stable” relationship and uphold the principles of “no conflict” and “no confrontation.” China’s Communist Party leaders had held off on offering extended comments as President Donald Trump — who also just pardoned his ex-national security adviser Michael Flynn — pursued unfounded claims of fraud in an effort to overturn the election result. Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s first three weeks in the stock market have been just as good as any in history.
More Sanctions
The U.S. sanctioned five firms in China and Russia over claims they are promoting Iran’s missile program, and a Trump administration official said more penalties are to come. The Treasury Department plans to announce additional sanctions on Iran in coming weeks related to arms, weapons of mass destruction and human rights violations. The U.S. has ratcheted up its pressure on Iran since Trump quit the 2015 multinational deal that offered sanctions relief in return for caps on the Iranian nuclear program.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Global equities headed for fresh all-time highs on Thursday as stocks pushed higher in Asia. Crude oil continued its advance toward $46 a barrel.
Asian stocks saw modest gains and European equity futures were steady. S&P 500 futures ticked up after the benchmark pulled back from a record, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 30,000. Treasury futures edged higher after U.S. bonds ended Wednesday flat. The dollar held an overnight decline.
Traders are off for the Thursday Thanksgiving holiday that will keep U.S. markets closed. A deluge of data on Wednesday brought the first back-to-back rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims since July, an uptick in durable goods orders and a widening trade deficit.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting did little to alter views. The central bank discussed at the Nov. 4-5 meeting providing more guidance on its bond-buying strategy “fairly soon” but didn’t see a need for immediate adjustments. An MSCI gauge of global shares has stalled after gaining 13% in November -- still set for the best month since 1988 -- on progress toward a coronavirus vaccine.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The US markets are closed for Thanksgiving today, and we got a decline yesterday as profits were taken ahead of that. We may well have quite a flat day on the FTSE and the two main levels I am looking at are 6419 as resistance and 6367 as support. We may range between those two levels for today. On the flip side, the S&P defended the 3620 level yesterday and if the bulls (after Thanksgiving I think) are able to break above the 3660 level then we should be on for further upside. That may well pull the FTSE up with it as well, and the top of the 10 day Raff channel looks achievable at 6530 at some point soon.
The FTSE didn't dip much below the 6400 level yesterday but didn't bounce very convincingly from it either. With the 200ema here on the 30min then it does remain as support, but below this then the key fib level is at 6367 and we could see a test of that on any early weakness today. Lower down then S1 at 6350 would be the next support, possibly worth a long of this as well as I can't see a massive sell off today, news notwithstanding.
For the bulls they will be looking to break above that 6420 level as we have 2 hour Hull moving average resistance here. If they manage that then R1 at 6458, along with the key fib here will mark the next area of note, and isn't that far below the level we dropped off on Wednesday night, Ergo the bulls need to break the 6480 level still, for further upside in the run up to year end.
So, not much more to say really, thinking it could be a quiet one as Rishi's comments from yesterday get digested but mainly due to the US being closed today. There is also a half day on US markets tomorrow, so again, tomorrow will be a bit quiet.
Good luck today.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 26th November 2020

The FTSE 100 fell steadily on Wednesday as investors take in Sunak's announcements and the OBR's stats. London's benchmark was down almost 1pc.

Rishi Sunak warned the UK’s economy emergency “has only just begun” as he launched new fiscal measures in the face of dire forecasts for growth and unemployment. The Chancellor unveiled a £4.3bn package of jobs support and announced an increase to the minimum wage for over-23s as part of a one-year Spending Review.

His announcements came as the Office for Budget Responsibility released its latest set of economic forecasts. The fiscal watchdog warned the UK economy will shrink some 11.3pc this year, with unemployment set to rise to 7.5pc next year once the furlough scheme winds down. The OBR said borrowing will hit £384bn this year, or 19.4pc of total GDP – a peacetime record. It warned that in its central scenario, £21bn in tax hikes and spending cuts would be needed to stop debt rising relative to GDP – although the Government has not yet signalled whether it would be troubled by such an outcome.

Chinese Congratulations

China’s President Xi Jinping broke his silence on Joe Biden’s election victory, sending the U.S. president-elect a message that he hopes to “manage differences” and focus on cooperation between the world’s two largest economies. The congratulatory note said China wants to advance a “healthy and stable” relationship and uphold the principles of “no conflict” and “no confrontation.” China’s Communist Party leaders had held off on offering extended comments as President Donald Trump — who also just pardoned his ex-national security adviser Michael Flynn — pursued unfounded claims of fraud in an effort to overturn the election result. Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s first three weeks in the stock market have been just as good as any in history.

More Sanctions

The U.S. sanctioned five firms in China and Russia over claims they are promoting Iran’s missile program, and a Trump administration official said more penalties are to come. The Treasury Department plans to announce additional sanctions on Iran in coming weeks related to arms, weapons of mass destruction and human rights violations. The U.S. has ratcheted up its pressure on Iran since Trump quit the 2015 multinational deal that offered sanctions relief in return for caps on the Iranian nuclear program.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Global equities headed for fresh all-time highs on Thursday as stocks pushed higher in Asia. Crude oil continued its advance toward $46 a barrel.

Asian stocks saw modest gains and European equity futures were steady. S&P 500 futures ticked up after the benchmark pulled back from a record, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell below 30,000. Treasury futures edged higher after U.S. bonds ended Wednesday flat. The dollar held an overnight decline.

Traders are off for the Thursday Thanksgiving holiday that will keep U.S. markets closed. A deluge of data on Wednesday brought the first back-to-back rise in weekly U.S. jobless claims since July, an uptick in durable goods orders and a widening trade deficit.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting did little to alter views. The central bank discussed at the Nov. 4-5 meeting providing more guidance on its bond-buying strategy “fairly soon” but didn’t see a need for immediate adjustments. An MSCI gauge of global shares has stalled after gaining 13% in November -- still set for the best month since 1988 -- on progress toward a coronavirus vaccine.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The US markets are closed for Thanksgiving today, and we got a decline yesterday as profits were taken ahead of that. We may well have quite a flat day on the FTSE and the two main levels I am looking at are 6419 as resistance and 6367 as support. We may range between those two levels for today. On the flip side, the S&P defended the 3620 level yesterday and if the bulls (after Thanksgiving I think) are able to break above the 3660 level then we should be on for further upside. That may well pull the FTSE up with it as well, and the top of the 10 day Raff channel looks achievable at 6530 at some point soon.

The FTSE didn't dip much below the 6400 level yesterday but didn't bounce very convincingly from it either. With the 200ema here on the 30min then it does remain as support, but below this then the key fib level is at 6367 and we could see a test of that on any early weakness today. Lower down then S1 at 6350 would be the next support, possibly worth a long of this as well as I can't see a massive sell off today, news notwithstanding.

For the bulls they will be looking to break above that 6420 level as we have 2 hour Hull moving average resistance here. If they manage that then R1 at 6458, along with the key fib here will mark the next area of note, and isn't that far below the level we dropped off on Wednesday night, Ergo the bulls need to break the 6480 level still, for further upside in the run up to year end.

So, not much more to say really, thinking it could be a quiet one as Rishi's comments from yesterday get digested but mainly due to the US being closed today. There is also a half day on US markets tomorrow, so again, tomorrow will be a bit quiet.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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