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UK PMI data out | Dip and rise | bear Tuesday | 7200 7146 7118 support | 7283 7312 resistance

#1 · 5th July 2022, 10:13 am

Quote from Nick on 5th July 2022, 10:13 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
Asian stocks and US equity futures pared gains Tuesday amid a jump in Treasury yields and as an earlier lift to investor sentiment from a potential improvement in US-China ties ebbed. Positive economic data and hints of easing Sino-U.S. tensions offered some respite to the recent sell-offs, though persistent fears about a global recession and sky-high inflation kept most buyers at bay.
An Asian share index came off session highs, in part as China turned lower. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts made modest gains from Friday’s close. US markets were shut Monday for the Independence Day holiday.
Offering brief respite to nervous markets was a report that U.S. president Joe Biden was leaning towards a decision on easing tariffs on goods from China as well as news Chinese vice premier Liu He had spoken to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. A survey showing China’s services activity at the fastest pace in almost a year also helped sentiment.
Overnight the Wall Street Journal reported Biden was contemplating rolling back some tariffs on Chinese imports in an effort to slow inflation.
U.S. markets were closed overnight for the Fourth of July holiday, and U.S. share futures rose in Asia trade, with S&P500 e-mini futures up 0.4%.
In currency markets the dollar index was steady at 105.7, still broadly supported by its safe-haven credentials.
U.S. treasury yields returned from the holiday higher, with the yield on benchmark 10 year notes at 2.9686% but failing push back above the symbolic 3% level.
Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $113.92 a barrel after a 2.4% gain on Monday, as a strike in Norway is expected to disrupt oil and gas output, fanning tight supply worries.
Spot gold was trading flat at $1809.2 an ounce, paring Monday’s losses.
A Turn on Tariffs
Joe Biden may announce a rollback of some US tariffs on Chinese consumer goods this week, along with a new probe into industrial subsidies that may lead to more duties in strategic areas like technology. Biden hasn't made a final decision and the timing may slip, people familiar said. A reduction would mark his first major policy step on trade ties between the world’s two biggest economic powers. Hints of a shift have increased in recent weeks as inflation has accelerated, putting pressure on US officials to find ways to tamp down prices paid by consumers for everyday merchandise.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th July 2022
Bit of a slow one on the FTSE100 as expected yesterday with the USA closed for Independence Day. We flirted with the 7260 level for most of the day and only exceeded it overnight as the futures pushed it to 7288. Having dropped back, a drop down to test the 7210 2h support level would fit pretty well for a dip and rise to play out today.
The US usually comes on bullish today after the 4th July so that may well help the FTSE100 to recover from any dips.
Initial resistance is at the 7288 overnight high, and that is just above the key fib and R1 level at 7283. Above that then the daily level of 7298 is in play again, and then 7312 for R2. As yesterday action was fairly subdued the various support and resistance levels tend to get fairly clustered. 7321 is the 200ema on the daily and worth keeping an eye on if we get there, as we may well see another bearish reaction off this. It's the line we dropped off last Tuesday.
The 2h chart remains bullish and has decent support at 7210 with the Hull MA here. Above that we have the coral at 7230 but it remains red for the moment, showing a downtrend on that timeframe. That 7230 does tie in with the daily pivot and the 200ema on the 30m, so again, keep an eye on this level. I have put the order lower, but we may see this hold.
Below 7210 then the bears would be looking to deliver a bear Tuesday and aim for sub 7200 - 7185 is the key fib, and then 7146 for S2 below that. I am not sure that we will drop that low today, and would like to see that 7210 level hold if tested.
S&P500
The bulls will be keen to defend the 3800 level, and we have some decent support just above this at 3810 for the 30m 200ema, and S1 at 3805. 3818 is the daily pivot so a bounce off this would make sense though! 3795 is lower support and then the 2h Hull MA at 3782. If it gets this low a long here is worth a go. 3850 is the overnight high and the bulls will be keen to break above that as it opens up the 3879 R3 level and a potential move above the 25ema on the daily at 3875. The 10d Raff channel is heading up again now, as this bounce plays out and ahead of earnings that start on the 15th July.
So, a dip and rise potentially for today. Good luck today!
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Asian stocks and US equity futures pared gains Tuesday amid a jump in Treasury yields and as an earlier lift to investor sentiment from a potential improvement in US-China ties ebbed. Positive economic data and hints of easing Sino-U.S. tensions offered some respite to the recent sell-offs, though persistent fears about a global recession and sky-high inflation kept most buyers at bay.

An Asian share index came off session highs, in part as China turned lower. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts made modest gains from Friday’s close. US markets were shut Monday for the Independence Day holiday.

Offering brief respite to nervous markets was a report that U.S. president Joe Biden was leaning towards a decision on easing tariffs on goods from China as well as news Chinese vice premier Liu He had spoken to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. A survey showing China’s services activity at the fastest pace in almost a year also helped sentiment.

Overnight the Wall Street Journal reported Biden was contemplating rolling back some tariffs on Chinese imports in an effort to slow inflation.

U.S. markets were closed overnight for the Fourth of July holiday, and U.S. share futures rose in Asia trade, with S&P500 e-mini futures up 0.4%.

In currency markets the dollar index was steady at 105.7, still broadly supported by its safe-haven credentials.

U.S. treasury yields returned from the holiday higher, with the yield on benchmark 10 year notes at 2.9686% but failing push back above the symbolic 3% level.

Brent crude futures rose 0.4% to $113.92 a barrel after a 2.4% gain on Monday, as a strike in Norway is expected to disrupt oil and gas output, fanning tight supply worries.

Spot gold was trading flat at $1809.2 an ounce, paring Monday’s losses.

A Turn on Tariffs
Joe Biden may announce a rollback of some US tariffs on Chinese consumer goods this week, along with a new probe into industrial subsidies that may lead to more duties in strategic areas like technology. Biden hasn't made a final decision and the timing may slip, people familiar said. A reduction would mark his first major policy step on trade ties between the world’s two biggest economic powers. Hints of a shift have increased in recent weeks as inflation has accelerated, putting pressure on US officials to find ways to tamp down prices paid by consumers for everyday merchandise.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th July 2022

Bit of a slow one on the FTSE100 as expected yesterday with the USA closed for Independence Day. We flirted with the 7260 level for most of the day and only exceeded it overnight as the futures pushed it to 7288. Having dropped back, a drop down to test the 7210 2h support level would fit pretty well for a dip and rise to play out today.

The US usually comes on bullish today after the 4th July so that may well help the FTSE100 to recover from any dips.

Initial resistance is at the 7288 overnight high, and that is just above the key fib and R1 level at 7283. Above that then the daily level of 7298 is in play again, and then 7312 for R2. As yesterday action was fairly subdued the various support and resistance levels tend to get fairly clustered. 7321 is the 200ema on the daily and worth keeping an eye on if we get there, as we may well see another bearish reaction off this. It's the line we dropped off last Tuesday.

The 2h chart remains bullish and has decent support at 7210 with the Hull MA here. Above that we have the coral at 7230 but it remains red for the moment, showing a downtrend on that timeframe. That 7230 does tie in with the daily pivot and the 200ema on the 30m, so again, keep an eye on this level. I have put the order lower, but we may see this hold.

Below 7210 then the bears would be looking to deliver a bear Tuesday and aim for sub 7200 - 7185 is the key fib, and then 7146 for S2 below that. I am not sure that we will drop that low today, and would like to see that 7210 level hold if tested.

S&P500
The bulls will be keen to defend the 3800 level, and we have some decent support just above this at 3810 for the 30m 200ema, and S1 at 3805. 3818 is the daily pivot so a bounce off this would make sense though! 3795 is lower support and then the 2h Hull MA at 3782. If it gets this low a long here is worth a go. 3850 is the overnight high and the bulls will be keen to break above that as it opens up the 3879 R3 level and a potential move above the 25ema on the daily at 3875. The 10d Raff channel is heading up again now, as this bounce plays out and ahead of earnings that start on the 15th July.

So, a dip and rise potentially for today. Good luck today!

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates