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UK Inflation 10.7% falls slightly | FOMC Interest Rate 0.5% | 7465 7425 7361 support | 7551 7610 resistance

#1 · 14th December 2022, 11:00 am

Quote from Nick on 14th December 2022, 11:00 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th December 2022
US equity futures rose and gauge of Asian stocks inched closer to a bull market as investors weighed a slowdown in inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Shares in China, Japan and Australia held advances, nudging the MSCI Asia Pacific index toward a close of 19% above its October low.
Asian stocks advanced on Wednesday, bonds were firm and the dollar nursed losses after data showed U.S. consumer prices barely rose in November, stoking hopes inflation has peaked and interest rate increases will slow and eventually stop in 2023.
Nervousness about policymakers' next moves, though, kept the mood in check ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting later in the day and central bank meetings in Britain and Europe on Thursday. Investors are also turning watchful on the global economy, despite China's reopening from tight COVID restrictions.
Well that's the first bit of major news out the way with US CPI coming in well yesterday. Begs the question of course if we are past peak inflation? Oil and energy costs in general helping out at the moment. As I am writing this, UK inflation has come in at 10.7%, just under forecast (10.9%) in another positive sign. And also lends weight to less aggressive rate rises. Can oil still slide down to $40?!
We have the FOMC interest rate decision with a 0.5% increase expected. What will be watched more closely is the rhetoric around it and if the increases are likely to be less aggressive going forward.
Initially today for the FTSE100 I think we will get a little down leg, probably to test the 7460 support level again. If that holds then we should retest that daily resistance level at 7546 from yesterday (though it did overshoot slightly). Above that then we are looking at a test of the 7605 level.
Below the 7465 support level then we will likely see a test of the S1 and key level at 7425 once again. Feels a bit more positive though to start with today so having finally tested that 25ema on the daily yesterday we should see a steady climb away from it. News notwithstanding!
Below the 7425 level then 7365 remains fairly key though we do have the bottom of the 20d Raff at 7415 now.
The US interest rate decision is out at 7pm, with the press conference after at 19:30.
The dip and rise pattern may well follow though onto the Dax40 & S&P500 as well. I am looking at key support at 14380 and 4025 respectively. Though the S&P500 isn't far above this support level to start with so any dip may be limited.
As you can see from the key trends table above, everything looks rather bullish. Is this the start of the Santa Rally?!
So, likely expect another volatile day and good luck!
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th December 2022

US equity futures rose and gauge of Asian stocks inched closer to a bull market as investors weighed a slowdown in inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Shares in China, Japan and Australia held advances, nudging the MSCI Asia Pacific index toward a close of 19% above its October low.

Asian stocks advanced on Wednesday, bonds were firm and the dollar nursed losses after data showed U.S. consumer prices barely rose in November, stoking hopes inflation has peaked and interest rate increases will slow and eventually stop in 2023.

Nervousness about policymakers' next moves, though, kept the mood in check ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting later in the day and central bank meetings in Britain and Europe on Thursday. Investors are also turning watchful on the global economy, despite China's reopening from tight COVID restrictions.

Well that's the first bit of major news out the way with US CPI coming in well yesterday. Begs the question of course if we are past peak inflation? Oil and energy costs in general helping out at the moment. As I am writing this, UK inflation has come in at 10.7%, just under forecast (10.9%) in another positive sign. And also lends weight to less aggressive rate rises. Can oil still slide down to $40?!

We have the FOMC interest rate decision with a 0.5% increase expected. What will be watched more closely is the rhetoric around it and if the increases are likely to be less aggressive going forward.

Initially today for the FTSE100 I think we will get a little down leg, probably to test the 7460 support level again. If that holds then we should retest that daily resistance level at 7546 from yesterday (though it did overshoot slightly). Above that then we are looking at a test of the 7605 level.

Below the 7465 support level then we will likely see a test of the S1 and key level at 7425 once again. Feels a bit more positive though to start with today so having finally tested that 25ema on the daily yesterday we should see a steady climb away from it. News notwithstanding!

Below the 7425 level then 7365 remains fairly key though we do have the bottom of the 20d Raff at 7415 now.

The US interest rate decision is out at 7pm, with the press conference after at 19:30.

The dip and rise pattern may well follow though onto the Dax40 & S&P500 as well. I am looking at key support at 14380 and 4025 respectively. Though the S&P500 isn't far above this support level to start with so any dip may be limited.

As you can see from the key trends table above, everything looks rather bullish. Is this the start of the Santa Rally?!

So, likely expect another volatile day and good luck!

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates