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UK CPI 10.1% | 7520 7502 7484 support | 7575 7593 resistance | Chinese stimulus

#1 · 17th August 2022, 9:59 am

Quote from Nick on 17th August 2022, 9:59 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
Stocks rose in Asia on Wednesday amid speculation that China may roll out more stimulus to shore up its ailing economy and as some robust US earnings delivered a boost for sentiment.
A jump of about 1% in Japan, along with gains in China and Hong Kong, helped MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index to add 0.5%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fluctuated while European contracts edged higher.
Asian shares tracked solid Wall Street performance on Wednesday as strong overnight earnings for U.S. retail giants pointed to further scope for the Federal Reserve to tackle inflation with rate hikes.
Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.81% to 29,101.33, breaking through the 29,000 barrier for the first time since Jan. 6. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.02%.
Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.71% and the S&P 500 gained 0.19% as Home Depot posted higher than expected sales and Walmart increased its profit forecast. S&P emini futures were flat in early Asian trading hours.
Investors now see a 41% chance of a third successive 75 bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in September, up from 39% the previous day. Minutes from the previous meeting will be released later today.
U.S. retail trade data for July will also come out later in the day, with investors watching for further signs of a recession.
British inflation data is due at 0600 GMT, and economists polled by Reuters expect it to show consumer prices rose by 9.8% in the 12 months to July, a further acceleration from the 9.1% rise reported for the 12 months to June. That’s not good news for British workers who saw earnings for the second quarter adjusted for inflation fall by 4.1%, the biggest drop since records began in 2001, according to data released on Tuesday.
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 17th August 2022
The FTSE100 stalled at the 7560 resistance level and that remains the level to break for the push towards the 7600 level now. We have just had the CPI inflation data out, at 10.1%, above the estimate, however the reaction on the FTSE100 so far is fairly muted. Was probably expecting worse!
For today therefore, the bulls will aiming to push up toward the 7593 level where have R2 for today and close to the round number at 7600. Above that then the R3 level of 7620 is next up, and we are also closing in on the top of the Raff channel top on the 10 day. That is at 7623 for today. 7645 is then daily resistance above that.
The S&P500 bulls will be aiming to break above that 4325 level that got the reaction yesterday and will be aiming for a push towards the 4349 level where we have R2 for today. That said with the drop off 4325 the 2h chart has gone bearish and has 4320 as resistance now, so the bulls have their work cut out. They will need to defend the 4290 level again, otherwise we will likely see a slide down to the 4258 level where we have the 30m 200ema.
The FTSE100 bears meanwhile will be aiming to take this down towards there 7520 level and lower. We could well see this hold though as we have the green 2h coral here and also the 30min 200ema which can be decent support/resistance.
Below 7520 and then we will be looking at 7502, and we are then at the bottom of the Raff channels, with both the 10&20d ones around the 7490 level.
It will be interesting to see if the market shrugs off the inflation figure. In theory it lends weight to continued rises on interest rates. However, there is only so much they can do in terms of increasing it and not screwing too many of the masses who are being hit with falling wages and rampant inflation already. Going to be a lot of businesses struggling by the end of the year as revenue drops!
Today should see a dip and rise play out though and I would like to see any dip stall at the 7520 level to tee up a bush push towards the 7600 area. That said, a lot will depend on the USA and we will need the bulls to play ball for a push towards the 4350 level on the S&P.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Stocks rose in Asia on Wednesday amid speculation that China may roll out more stimulus to shore up its ailing economy and as some robust US earnings delivered a boost for sentiment.

A jump of about 1% in Japan, along with gains in China and Hong Kong, helped MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific share index to add 0.5%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures fluctuated while European contracts edged higher.

Asian shares tracked solid Wall Street performance on Wednesday as strong overnight earnings for U.S. retail giants pointed to further scope for the Federal Reserve to tackle inflation with rate hikes.

Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.81% to 29,101.33, breaking through the 29,000 barrier for the first time since Jan. 6. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.02%.

Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.71% and the S&P 500 gained 0.19% as Home Depot posted higher than expected sales and Walmart increased its profit forecast. S&P emini futures were flat in early Asian trading hours.

Investors now see a 41% chance of a third successive 75 bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in September, up from 39% the previous day. Minutes from the previous meeting will be released later today.

U.S. retail trade data for July will also come out later in the day, with investors watching for further signs of a recession.

British inflation data is due at 0600 GMT, and economists polled by Reuters expect it to show consumer prices rose by 9.8% in the 12 months to July, a further acceleration from the 9.1% rise reported for the 12 months to June. That’s not good news for British workers who saw earnings for the second quarter adjusted for inflation fall by 4.1%, the biggest drop since records began in 2001, according to data released on Tuesday.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 17th August 2022

The FTSE100 stalled at the 7560 resistance level and that remains the level to break for the push towards the 7600 level now. We have just had the CPI inflation data out, at 10.1%, above the estimate, however the reaction on the FTSE100 so far is fairly muted. Was probably expecting worse!

For today therefore, the bulls will aiming to push up toward the 7593 level where have R2 for today and close to the round number at 7600. Above that then the R3 level of 7620 is next up, and we are also closing in on the top of the Raff channel top on the 10 day. That is at 7623 for today. 7645 is then daily resistance above that.

The S&P500 bulls will be aiming to break above that 4325 level that got the reaction yesterday and will be aiming for a push towards the 4349 level where we have R2 for today. That said with the drop off 4325 the 2h chart has gone bearish and has 4320 as resistance now, so the bulls have their work cut out. They will need to defend the 4290 level again, otherwise we will likely see a slide down to the 4258 level where we have the 30m 200ema.

The FTSE100 bears meanwhile will be aiming to take this down towards there 7520 level and lower. We could well see this hold though as we have the green 2h coral here and also the 30min 200ema which can be decent support/resistance.

Below 7520 and then we will be looking at 7502, and we are then at the bottom of the Raff channels, with both the 10&20d ones around the 7490 level.

It will be interesting to see if the market shrugs off the inflation figure. In theory it lends weight to continued rises on interest rates. However, there is only so much they can do in terms of increasing it and not screwing too many of the masses who are being hit with falling wages and rampant inflation already. Going to be a lot of businesses struggling by the end of the year as revenue drops!

Today should see a dip and rise play out though and I would like to see any dip stall at the 7520 level to tee up a bush push towards the 7600 area. That said, a lot will depend on the USA and we will need the bulls to play ball for a push towards the 4350 level on the S&P.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates