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Strong Monday with 6792 6835 6874 resistance for today | 6720 6670 support

#1 · 16th February 2021, 9:50 am

Quote from Nick on 16th February 2021, 9:50 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th February 2021
The FTSE 100 soared and the pound broke above $1.39 for the first time in almost three years on Monday, as Britain hit a milestone in its vaccination programme. London’s top listed stocks flew 2.5pc higher, adding £44.2bn in value, in a broad-based rally that lifted almost every company on the blue-chip index.

Spirits were further lifted by continued hopes for a recovery in global demand, which boosted mining stocks and have sent several metals to multi-year price highs. Banks and oil companies climbed strongly, while travel-related groups such as Premier Inn-owner Whitbread and British Airways-owner IAG led risers.
Britain’s mid-cap companies also outperformed, with the FTSE 250climbing 1.8pc as investors bet pandemic-battered companies such as National Express, Cineworld and WH Smith would bounce back once restrictions are eased. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that the route out of lockdown would be “cautious but irreversible”, but warned infection rates would need to be reduced first.
The FTSE 100’s climb came despite a simultaneous rise for the pound, which puts the brakes on international earners when it strengthens.
Sterling passed $1.39 for the first time since 2018, continuing a steady recovery towards $1.40 after plunging to a 35-year low last year. Its gains have been driven in large part to a steady decline in the dollar as the Federal Reserve stood by its commitment to sustained ultra-low interest rates.
Correction Complacency
Global investors are the least fearful they’ve been in two decades, and perhaps the most greedy. A JPMorgan gauge of cross-asset complacency based on valuations, positioning and price momentum is nearing the highest level since the time the dot-com bubble burst. From Bitcoin’s flirting with the $50,000 mark to speculative warfare over penny stocks, the exuberance has been on full display in 2021. As investors pour a record amount of money into equity funds, especially technology stocks, that's prompted strategists at Bank of America to warn a correction may be coming.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
A global equity rally marched on Tuesday and bonds fell further amid hopes a widening Covid-19 vaccine rollout will help boost the global recovery. Oil held an overnight gain as a U.S. cold snap roiled energy markets.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped almost 2% to cement a move above 30,000, leading gains in Asia with Hong Kong. U.S. equity futures pointed higher with their European counterparts. U.S. markets were closed for Presidents’ Day on Monday and Chinese markets remained shut for the Lunar New Year holiday.
Ten-year Treasury yields jumped above 1.24%, the highest in almost a year, amid this week’s global debt selloff. In the U.S., an Arctic blast threatened to disrupt energy supplies, with crude oil trading around a 13-month high. Elsewhere, Bitcoin reached another record high, coming close to $50,000.
Global equities look set to rise for a twelfth straight session to another all-time high and the Treasury yield curve is around the steepest level in more than five years as traders bet on improving growth. Investors are becoming more confident that a combination of improving inoculation programs and increased fiscal relief will pull the global economy out of the pandemic.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Well that was a bit more bullish than I was thinking on the FTSE yesterday, with a continuation of the rise from 6485 on Friday. The US was closed but the FTSE was turbo charged with positive vaccine news and finally catching up with the other markets as the FTSE 100 has been lagging for most of February. The others though (Dax and S&P) trod water for most of the day though, as the US was on a public holiday.
That said it's all looking a bit greedy across the board and we are just on the daily resistance level of 6792 as I write this and as such we could see an initial drop down towards the pivot at 6720 to start with today. The US returns and is also sat on daily resistance at 3964 at the moment. Again, we could see a dip and rise play out on that today. If the bulls can break the 3965 level then we should see 4000 though. Support on the S&P is at S1 at 3947 - the bulls will want to defend that otherwise it starts to slide back down. 3944 is the Hull MA also for support, and then the 2h coral below that at 3935.
For the FTSE 100 today we have that initial resistance level at 6792 as mentioned, with 6833 above that. Splitting them is R1 at 6819 and then R2 at 6873. The standard pivots are quite wide for today as we had a pretty large move yesterday. We are also just testing the top of the Raff channels for today as I write this, with the 20 day Raff at 6780 and the 10 day Raff at 6800.
A dip down to the 2 hour supports would all fit quite well really - a slide from this 6800 level down to 6660ish and then back up again. Interesting the daily coral has gone red despite yesterdays strength - this shows a bearish trend developing on that time frame, and is at 6726 - so this rise could just be an overshoot of that. Probably have a really bearish end to February after all!
For support the daily pivot and the key fib are both at 6720 and then S1 at 6663. As mentioned the 2 hour Hull MA is t 6660 and then 6585 for the 2h coral.
So, looking at a dip and rise with 6720 as the main support then 6660 below that. Will we get that low today though? A lot will depend on the S&P so watch the 3645 level for support, and 3965 for resistance. The FTSE resistance levels of note at 6792, 6833 and then 6874. Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th February 2021

The FTSE 100 soared and the pound broke above $1.39 for the first time in almost three years on Monday, as Britain hit a milestone in its vaccination programme. London’s top listed stocks flew 2.5pc higher, adding £44.2bn in value, in a broad-based rally that lifted almost every company on the blue-chip index.

Spirits were further lifted by continued hopes for a recovery in global demand, which boosted mining stocks and have sent several metals to multi-year price highs. Banks and oil companies climbed strongly, while travel-related groups such as Premier Inn-owner Whitbread and British Airways-owner IAG led risers.

Britain’s mid-cap companies also outperformed, with the FTSE 250climbing 1.8pc as investors bet pandemic-battered companies such as National Express, Cineworld and WH Smith would bounce back once restrictions are eased. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that the route out of lockdown would be “cautious but irreversible”, but warned infection rates would need to be reduced first.

The FTSE 100’s climb came despite a simultaneous rise for the pound, which puts the brakes on international earners when it strengthens.
Sterling passed $1.39 for the first time since 2018, continuing a steady recovery towards $1.40 after plunging to a 35-year low last year. Its gains have been driven in large part to a steady decline in the dollar as the Federal Reserve stood by its commitment to sustained ultra-low interest rates.

Correction Complacency

Global investors are the least fearful they’ve been in two decades, and perhaps the most greedy. A JPMorgan gauge of cross-asset complacency based on valuations, positioning and price momentum is nearing the highest level since the time the dot-com bubble burst. From Bitcoin’s flirting with the $50,000 mark to speculative warfare over penny stocks, the exuberance has been on full display in 2021. As investors pour a record amount of money into equity funds, especially technology stocks, that's prompted strategists at Bank of America to warn a correction may be coming.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

A global equity rally marched on Tuesday and bonds fell further amid hopes a widening Covid-19 vaccine rollout will help boost the global recovery. Oil held an overnight gain as a U.S. cold snap roiled energy markets.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped almost 2% to cement a move above 30,000, leading gains in Asia with Hong Kong. U.S. equity futures pointed higher with their European counterparts. U.S. markets were closed for Presidents’ Day on Monday and Chinese markets remained shut for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Ten-year Treasury yields jumped above 1.24%, the highest in almost a year, amid this week’s global debt selloff. In the U.S., an Arctic blast threatened to disrupt energy supplies, with crude oil trading around a 13-month high. Elsewhere, Bitcoin reached another record high, coming close to $50,000.

Global equities look set to rise for a twelfth straight session to another all-time high and the Treasury yield curve is around the steepest level in more than five years as traders bet on improving growth. Investors are becoming more confident that a combination of improving inoculation programs and increased fiscal relief will pull the global economy out of the pandemic.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Well that was a bit more bullish than I was thinking on the FTSE yesterday, with a continuation of the rise from 6485 on Friday. The US was closed but the FTSE was turbo charged with positive vaccine news and finally catching up with the other markets as the FTSE 100 has been lagging for most of February. The others though (Dax and S&P) trod water for most of the day though, as the US was on a public holiday.

That said it's all looking a bit greedy across the board and we are just on the daily resistance level of 6792 as I write this and as such we could see an initial drop down towards the pivot at 6720 to start with today. The US returns and is also sat on daily resistance at 3964 at the moment. Again, we could see a dip and rise play out on that today. If the bulls can break the 3965 level then we should see 4000 though. Support on the S&P is at S1 at 3947 - the bulls will want to defend that otherwise it starts to slide back down. 3944 is the Hull MA also for support, and then the 2h coral below that at 3935.

For the FTSE 100 today we have that initial resistance level at 6792 as mentioned, with 6833 above that. Splitting them is R1 at 6819 and then R2 at 6873. The standard pivots are quite wide for today as we had a pretty large move yesterday. We are also just testing the top of the Raff channels for today as I write this, with the 20 day Raff at 6780 and the 10 day Raff at 6800.

A dip down to the 2 hour supports would all fit quite well really - a slide from this 6800 level down to 6660ish and then back up again. Interesting the daily coral has gone red despite yesterdays strength - this shows a bearish trend developing on that time frame, and is at 6726 - so this rise could just be an overshoot of that. Probably have a really bearish end to February after all!

For support the daily pivot and the key fib are both at 6720 and then S1 at 6663. As mentioned the 2 hour Hull MA is t 6660 and then 6585 for the 2h coral.

So, looking at a dip and rise with 6720 as the main support then 6660 below that. Will we get that low today though? A lot will depend on the S&P so watch the 3645 level for support, and 3965 for resistance. The FTSE resistance levels of note at 6792, 6833 and then 6874. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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