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Stocks slump as 7850 breaks | Banking woes | NFP today | 7740 7720 7642 support

#1 · 10th March 2023, 9:52 am

Quote from Nick on 10th March 2023, 9:52 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th March 2023
Falling bank stocks drove Asian markets lower on Friday, while bonds rallied and expectations for U.S. interest rate rises were reduced after a surprise capital raising at a Silicon Valley startup lender unleashed fears of broader banking-system stress.
European and U.S. equity markets looked set to echo those losses when they reopen, with futures pointing lower. S&P 500 futures were down 0.73%, following the cash index dropping 1.8% and falling below its 200-day moving average.
Been a long time since we have seen a -100 pre open on the FTSE100 but here we are and not far above the key 7740 support area that is now in play. I said yesterday it felt like it was a short the rallies sort of day and sure enough some news broke and killed the S&P at the 4015 level. Was a bit of a shame it didn't quite manage 4020 before selling off though to perfectly test the resistance level!
Initially today the 7740 looks like it will be tested to start with, and we may well see a bounce here as its Friday and ahead of NFP. If that plays out then a climb to test the daily pivot and the 30m coral (red) at 7840 would fit very well.
Below 7740 though and the bears will ultimately be looking for 7600. We have various other supports along the way though with S2 at 7720 and 7642 for S3 today. The bottom of the 20d Raff channel is also in play for today, also being at the 7740 level.
On the upside, 7800 is the first hurdle being the round number, but 7840 as mentioned above that for the daily pivot and the Hull MA 2h area as well. That is currently at 7875 as I write this but steadily dropping. 7885 is then above this with the 30m 200ema, key fib and R1 here. If this level should be seen then it's worth a short here too.
Above this then 7900 is back in play, but with this drop (and the fact that the FTSE started weakening late Wednesday) the daily moving averages have gone bearish and the 25ema is now showing resistance at the 7885 level too. If it does add 100 to this area then shorting here would make sense for another leg lower.
We do of course have NFP today, and UK GDP has also just come in at 0.3%, showing a rather convenient rebound over the previous period. Handy that!
The NFP forecast is for 205k jobs to be added, versus the stellar 517k previously. ADP figures the other day suggests it should be decent.
The S&P500 is also just testing the bottom of its 10d Raff channel at 3885 and with S1 at 3870 we may well see this area hold for a buy the rumour NFP bounce. As with yesterday the bulls will need to be quick out the blocks though!
So, stay nimble today and keep an eye out for NFP at 1330 today. As its Friday be a bit more cautious. Good luck and have a great weekend.
Recommended Broker

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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th March 2023

Falling bank stocks drove Asian markets lower on Friday, while bonds rallied and expectations for U.S. interest rate rises were reduced after a surprise capital raising at a Silicon Valley startup lender unleashed fears of broader banking-system stress.

European and U.S. equity markets looked set to echo those losses when they reopen, with futures pointing lower. S&P 500 futures were down 0.73%, following the cash index dropping 1.8% and falling below its 200-day moving average.

Been a long time since we have seen a -100 pre open on the FTSE100 but here we are and not far above the key 7740 support area that is now in play. I said yesterday it felt like it was a short the rallies sort of day and sure enough some news broke and killed the S&P at the 4015 level. Was a bit of a shame it didn't quite manage 4020 before selling off though to perfectly test the resistance level!

Initially today the 7740 looks like it will be tested to start with, and we may well see a bounce here as its Friday and ahead of NFP. If that plays out then a climb to test the daily pivot and the 30m coral (red) at 7840 would fit very well.

Below 7740 though and the bears will ultimately be looking for 7600. We have various other supports along the way though with S2 at 7720 and 7642 for S3 today. The bottom of the 20d Raff channel is also in play for today, also being at the 7740 level.

On the upside, 7800 is the first hurdle being the round number, but 7840 as mentioned above that for the daily pivot and the Hull MA 2h area as well. That is currently at 7875 as I write this but steadily dropping. 7885 is then above this with the 30m 200ema, key fib and R1 here. If this level should be seen then it's worth a short here too.

Above this then 7900 is back in play, but with this drop (and the fact that the FTSE started weakening late Wednesday) the daily moving averages have gone bearish and the 25ema is now showing resistance at the 7885 level too. If it does add 100 to this area then shorting here would make sense for another leg lower.

We do of course have NFP today, and UK GDP has also just come in at 0.3%, showing a rather convenient rebound over the previous period. Handy that!

The NFP forecast is for 205k jobs to be added, versus the stellar 517k previously. ADP figures the other day suggests it should be decent.

The S&P500 is also just testing the bottom of its 10d Raff channel at 3885 and with S1 at 3870 we may well see this area hold for a buy the rumour NFP bounce. As with yesterday the bulls will need to be quick out the blocks though!

So, stay nimble today and keep an eye out for NFP at 1330 today. As its Friday be a bit more cautious. Good luck and have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates