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Still pushing up but bulls need to break 7689 | 7600 7575 support | lower volumes this week

#1 · 11th April 2022, 9:17 am

Quote from Nick on 11th April 2022, 9:17 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE100 closed at an eight-week high on Friday, lifted by commodity and banking stocks at the end of a volatile week that saw concerns about higher US interest rates and the Ukraine conflict rattle investors. TheFTSE100 added 1.6% to 7,669, its highest level since mid-February, with oil majors BP, Shell and miner Anglo American leading the gains.
Treasuries, stocks and U.S. equity futures slid Monday amid heightened worries about inflation risks and tightening financial conditions. A gauge of the dollar climbed.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 2.77%, exceeding the equivalent rate on Chinese debt for the first time since 2010. Real U.S. yields are getting closer to turning positive, a development that could be an impediment for risk assets.
An Asia-Pacific equity index shed more than 1%, dropping to the lowest since mid-March. China and Hong Kong were in the red, weighed down by the mainland’s Covid outbreak, elevated Chinese factory-gate prices and regulatory concerns in the technology sector.
U.S. and European futures also declined, pointing to more challenges for global shares after the Federal Reserve last week signaled sharp interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction to curb price pressures.
Oil retreated on risks to demand from China’s Covid lockdowns, including extensive curbs in Shanghai.
Market sentiment continues to be shaped by a hawkish Fed, commodity-market disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the prospect of an economic slowdown. China’s Covid curbs threaten to exacerbate supply-chain snarls, further stoking inflation risks. The nation’s factory gate prices increased more than expected in March.
Pound
On Friday, the pound dropped below $1.30 for the first time since November 2020 as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine clouds the outlook for central banks. Sterling fell as much as 0.6pc to $1.2999, extending a two-day loss against the US currency.
The Bank of England began lifting interest rates in December, but has recently softened its guidance for further moves amid heightened uncertainty caused by the war. By contrast, the Federal Reserve, which has moved more slowly than its UK counterpart, has signalled a rapid series of interest rate rises in a bid to curb surging prices.
Macron Vs. Le Pen
In a re-run of the 2017 election, French President Emmanuel Macron is set to face Marine Le Pen in the final round of voting. The top two candidates, with a respective 28% and 24% of votes according to projections from Sunday’s initial ballot, will compete in a runoff on April 24 to decide who will lead Europe’s second-biggest economy. A late surge in support for Le Pen suggests she’ll be cemented as leader of the French far-right, continuing the movement that began under her father 20 years ago.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 11th April 2022
We have a gap down on the S&P500 to start with today and as such may well see a climb back to close that at 4486. That will probably allow the FTSE to also put in a bullish start today and we get a rise towards R1 at 7689. We also have the key fib at 7674 to watch for. Bull Monday on the cards?
That said, initially we have resistance at the 7640 level with the daily pivot and the red 30m coral here - so we could well follow the ASX200 pattern and have an initial dip at the open before a rise after that. A dip down to the S1 level at 7600 would fit well as we also have the 200ema on the 30m here. The bulls will be keen to defend this level being the round number, and also the 2h coral (green, but not the first test).
Below the 7598 level then 7575 is the key fib and would be the next support level to watch for. We may well also have slightly lower volumes this week as we are into the Easter holidays now, and have the shortened 4 day week.
The Raff channels continue to head up but the test of the 25ema on the daily remains elusive for the moment at 7494. I am still watching that line for the moment though.
Above the 7689 level then the 7723 R2 level (and the top of the 10d Raff channel) is the next one to watch for with a possible test of the 7770 daily resistance. Seems a big ask for today but you never know!
S&P500
Got that gap to start with so I expect a rise to close that initially at 4486, and then with the resistance cluster at 4505 to 4510 (red 30m coral, 200ema and key fib) all here we may well see a drop off that area. Above that though and then bulls will be looking at 4517 R1 and possibly 4547 R2, though again that feels a big ask. Support wise, I am watching 4445 as S2 here and also twice we have bounced off that 4450 last week.
Having been quite bearish following the test of the 4640 area we may well see the bulls start to put up more of a fight this week, and hold the 4415 200ema on the daily if we get any further downside.
Dax40
Testing the key fib support at 14113 as I write this so I expect we will get a climb towards the 14242 30min red coral and then daily pivot at 14229. Further upside towards the key fib at 14311 would be worth a short here though. The 2h chart also has support at 14124 to start with. Above the 14315 level then the bulls will be looking to break 14328 as we have the 25ema on the daily here and that would be the first test of that since it went bearish on Thursday. Might see more bears pile in here too. Above this then R2 at 14410 is the next level to watch.
Below the fib support at 14113 then 14047 is S2 and could well be seen if it gets bearish today, though I am thinking that the fib level at 14113 may well hold well.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE100 closed at an eight-week high on Friday, lifted by commodity and banking stocks at the end of a volatile week that saw concerns about higher US interest rates and the Ukraine conflict rattle investors. TheFTSE100 added 1.6% to 7,669, its highest level since mid-February, with oil majors BP, Shell and miner Anglo American leading the gains.

Treasuries, stocks and U.S. equity futures slid Monday amid heightened worries about inflation risks and tightening financial conditions. A gauge of the dollar climbed.

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 2.77%, exceeding the equivalent rate on Chinese debt for the first time since 2010. Real U.S. yields are getting closer to turning positive, a development that could be an impediment for risk assets.

An Asia-Pacific equity index shed more than 1%, dropping to the lowest since mid-March. China and Hong Kong were in the red, weighed down by the mainland’s Covid outbreak, elevated Chinese factory-gate prices and regulatory concerns in the technology sector.

U.S. and European futures also declined, pointing to more challenges for global shares after the Federal Reserve last week signaled sharp interest-rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction to curb price pressures.

Oil retreated on risks to demand from China’s Covid lockdowns, including extensive curbs in Shanghai.

Market sentiment continues to be shaped by a hawkish Fed, commodity-market disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the prospect of an economic slowdown. China’s Covid curbs threaten to exacerbate supply-chain snarls, further stoking inflation risks. The nation’s factory gate prices increased more than expected in March.

Pound
On Friday, the pound dropped below $1.30 for the first time since November 2020 as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine clouds the outlook for central banks. Sterling fell as much as 0.6pc to $1.2999, extending a two-day loss against the US currency.

The Bank of England began lifting interest rates in December, but has recently softened its guidance for further moves amid heightened uncertainty caused by the war. By contrast, the Federal Reserve, which has moved more slowly than its UK counterpart, has signalled a rapid series of interest rate rises in a bid to curb surging prices.

Macron Vs. Le Pen
In a re-run of the 2017 election, French President Emmanuel Macron is set to face Marine Le Pen in the final round of voting. The top two candidates, with a respective 28% and 24% of votes according to projections from Sunday’s initial ballot, will compete in a runoff on April 24 to decide who will lead Europe’s second-biggest economy. A late surge in support for Le Pen suggests she’ll be cemented as leader of the French far-right, continuing the movement that began under her father 20 years ago.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 11th April 2022

We have a gap down on the S&P500 to start with today and as such may well see a climb back to close that at 4486. That will probably allow the FTSE to also put in a bullish start today and we get a rise towards R1 at 7689. We also have the key fib at 7674 to watch for. Bull Monday on the cards?

That said, initially we have resistance at the 7640 level with the daily pivot and the red 30m coral here - so we could well follow the ASX200 pattern and have an initial dip at the open before a rise after that. A dip down to the S1 level at 7600 would fit well as we also have the 200ema on the 30m here. The bulls will be keen to defend this level being the round number, and also the 2h coral (green, but not the first test).

Below the 7598 level then 7575 is the key fib and would be the next support level to watch for. We may well also have slightly lower volumes this week as we are into the Easter holidays now, and have the shortened 4 day week.

The Raff channels continue to head up but the test of the 25ema on the daily remains elusive for the moment at 7494. I am still watching that line for the moment though.

Above the 7689 level then the 7723 R2 level (and the top of the 10d Raff channel) is the next one to watch for with a possible test of the 7770 daily resistance. Seems a big ask for today but you never know!

S&P500
Got that gap to start with so I expect a rise to close that initially at 4486, and then with the resistance cluster at 4505 to 4510 (red 30m coral, 200ema and key fib) all here we may well see a drop off that area. Above that though and then bulls will be looking at 4517 R1 and possibly 4547 R2, though again that feels a big ask. Support wise, I am watching 4445 as S2 here and also twice we have bounced off that 4450 last week.

Having been quite bearish following the test of the 4640 area we may well see the bulls start to put up more of a fight this week, and hold the 4415 200ema on the daily if we get any further downside.

Dax40
Testing the key fib support at 14113 as I write this so I expect we will get a climb towards the 14242 30min red coral and then daily pivot at 14229. Further upside towards the key fib at 14311 would be worth a short here though. The 2h chart also has support at 14124 to start with. Above the 14315 level then the bulls will be looking to break 14328 as we have the 25ema on the daily here and that would be the first test of that since it went bearish on Thursday. Might see more bears pile in here too. Above this then R2 at 14410 is the next level to watch.

Below the fib support at 14113 then 14047 is S2 and could well be seen if it gets bearish today, though I am thinking that the fib level at 14113 may well hold well.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates