Quote from Nick on 15th April 2020, 9:27 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th April 2020

• IMF says Covid-19 will produce steepest recession in nearly a century
• Office for Budget responsibility says GDP could drop by a third
• OBR warns unemployment may hit 10pc, with 2m job losses
• FTSE 100 falls slightly, lagging behind European peers

Overall, we saw a positive day with these being the main highlights:

• Stock markets mostly rose as better-than-expected Chinese trade data lifted some of the economic gloom wrought by coronavirus.
• Oil prices fell despite Donald Trump claiming that producers were mulling a global daily output cut of 20 million barrels.
• The dollar dropped against main rivalcurrencies, helping to push gold above $1,700 an ounce - the highest level for more than seven years.
• The IMF issued a stark warning that the coronavirus crisis would trigger a global recession that would very likely be the deepest economic contraction since the 1930s.

London's benchmark index closed 0.88pc lower to 5,791.31 while the FTSE 250pc dipped almost 2pc to 16,082.57. In the eurozone Germany's DAX closed 1.25pc higher and Paris' CAC finished 0.38pc higher.

Worse Than 2009

The International Monetary Fund says the “Great Lockdown” recession will be the steepest in almost a century and warned the world economy’s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if the coronavirus lingers or returns. In its first World Economic Outlook report since the spread of the virus and subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year. That compares to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis. The fund anticipates growth of 5.8% next year, which would be the strongest in records dating back to 1980, but it cautioned risks are tilted to the downside. Much depends on the longevity of the pandemic, its effect on activity and related stresses in financial and commodity markets, it said. And if you were pinning your hopes on a V-shaped recovery? It seems more unlikely than ever, after the institution said output in both advanced and emerging markets would undershoot their pre-virus trends through 2021.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Asian stocks fluctuated on light volumes Wednesday, and U.S. and European futures slipped, as investors scoured earnings reports for evidence of the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

The S&P managed to get to the 2850 level mentioned yesterday and we saw the bears appear here and overnight we have dropped down to 2830. That said the 2 hour chart is bullish still, so I am not ruling out a final push higher towards the 2911 area, possibly helped by earnings - maybe these being less bad than expected! Reading the media though it seems like the vast majority of companies have the begging bowl out for government bail outs. Contingency funds saved up anyone?! If, we do see the S&P put in another leg higher then this should help take the FTSE higher, as it sold off quite heavily yesterday from 5940, helped along by cable rising. Gold has also dropped off the 1745 high and may well talk with a a final push upwards on indices.

If the bulls appear first thing then we should see a rise towards the first resistance level at 5800 where we have the 30min coral now red and likely to see a reaction. If the bulls can push above this them the daily pivot at 5839 is next up and some daily resistance at 5845. With the drop yesterday the 2 hour chart has gone bearish and has moving average resistance at 5897 now. Might tally with the SP putting in another leg up towards the 2880 area which is the bottom of its resistance range. 2966 is the higher level to watch as we have the 200ema on the daily here though not sure it will get that high on this current bounce. Should the FTSE get a boost and break above 5900 then its possible that we are on a track to test the top of the 10 day Raff area at some point soon at 6120ish. Seems a bit fanciful but you never know.

For the bears today, should they break below the S1 level of 5735 then 5620 is the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel and would more than likely be tested.

Lets see if the S&P can put in one final push towards the 2930 level, it will really need to hold 2805 (2hr support) though. Good luck today.

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