Quote from Nick on 5th May 2020, 9:23 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th May 2020

• Eurozone manufacturing PMIs plunge to record lows in April
• Small businesses rush for Bounce Back loans
• Corporate confidence slumps to all-time low
• European and US stock markets in the red

Stock markets closed down yesterday after Donald Trump sparked fears of a renewed trade war with China over its role in the coronavirus pandemic.
Key eurozone markets were more than 3.5pc lower at the close on simmering US-China tensions, with Frankfurt and Paris playing catch-up with London after a long holiday weekend. The region's losses came as millions of Europeans emerged from lockdown on Monday, with Italy, the continent's hardest-hit country, leading the way out of its two-month coronavirus confinement.

However, we have seen a rise on the futures, and the FTSE is heading towards the 5880 resistance level, having climbed through 5800 overnight,. The S&P is continuing to head towards the 2883 resistance level we had for yesterday, and it was annoying that the trade plan long at 2803 got stopped out. The rise yesterday was very lacklustre. The FTSE 100 closed 0.18pc lower at 5,752.68.

Furlough
The UK government has reported that 6.3m workers have been furloughed sine the coronavirus pandemic began.
It said, by midnight May 3 a total of:

• 6.3m jobs furloughed
• 800k employers furloughing
• Total value of claims £8bn

Antibody Anticipation
Scientists created a monoclonal antibody that can defeat the new coronavirus in the lab, an early but promising step in efforts to find treatments and curb the pandemic’s spread. The experimental antibody has neutralized the virus in cell cultures. While it’s an early point in the drug development process — before animal research or human trials — the antibody may help prevent or treat Covid-19 and related diseases in the future, according to a study published Monday. More research is needed to see whether the findings are confirmed in a clinical setting and how precisely the antibody defeats the virus. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledged that the nation’s death count would likely be higher than he had predicted, but also said some states “aren’t going fast enough” to reopen. Trump also accused Beijing of attempting a cover-up and promised a conclusive report on the pandemic’s origins. Elsewhere, Singapore is mulling how to ease its lockdown, even though the fight against the virus is far from over. Globally, deaths topped 250,000.[Bloomberg]

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

U.S. futures and stocks in Asia rose Tuesday, with a few markets closed for holidays, as a number of economies move toward easing lockdowns. Crude oil gained for a fifth consecutive day. S&P 500 futures climbed after the index staged a turnaround late Monday to end firmer as California sounded a note of optimism in its fight against the virus. Stocks outperformed in Australia and also rose in Singapore. Hong Kong was up, even after a record drop in GDP.

That was a very slow rise yesterday but rise it did over the course of the past 24 hours, and we are getting nearer to some key resistance levels - 2880 on the S&P and 5880 on the FTSE 100. As such, we may well see a bit more upside, before the bears appear for a bit of bear Tuesday action later on today. The S&P is just testing R1 as I write this at 2860 so the bulls will be keen to push past this initially.

I have gone for an initial dip on the FTSE in the chart below, to close the gap with yesterdays close and also test the daily pivot and 30min coral area (now green) before we get a push back up. We are also nearly at R1 at 5854 as I am writing this. Some positive news on the virus with this antibody that scientists have created, which may well help underpin some strength for the moment. However the economic tsunami rumbles onwards. If we do get an intial drop then that 5760 area looks good for initial support. If the bears were to break below this then 5700 would more than likely be seen again, and this is also just below the S1 level. We do also have the key fib at 5724.

With yesterdays rise, the 2 hour moving averages have gone bullish, and the support is at 5794 initially but continuing to decline. So we have a bullish and bearish case on that time frame at the moment. If the S&P sees the bears appear at 2880 and go for it then I would expect the FTSE to drop through its support.

For the bulls, if they were to break through there 5880 level then I would be looking for a rise towards the 5940 level, and possibly 6000 again. The drop off the 6200 Raff channels from last week is currently being retraced but we haven't tested the bottom of the channels as yet, and both Raff are around the 5590 area.

So for the moment, am still feeling bullish and looking for a rise to the 2880 and 5880 levels. Possibly as high at 5940. Its a slightly confusing picture though as there is a case for both a further rise, but also a decent drop off. S&P 2880 looks key, Good luck today.

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