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Seasonality mid Jan sell off starts | 7760 7735 7712 support | 7815 7865 resistance

#1 · 19th January 2023, 10:54 am

Quote from Nick on 19th January 2023, 10:54 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th January 2023
Falling fuel prices and cheaper clothing helped bring inflation down for the second month in a row, adding to evidence that price rises have peaked earlier than expected. Consumer prices grew at 10.5pc in December 2022, continuing the slowdown from a 41-year high in October when they peaked at 11.1pc. The fall in inflation largely came from a drop in fuel prices, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. It said fuel prices rose by 11.5pc in the year to December, down from 17.2pc in November.
It was the right call having the short orders loaded up yesterday, just a shame that the markets didn't quite get high enough before their sell off started. The S&P500 was due a dip anyway to drop down to test the 25ema at the 3916 level on the daily chart and it's pretty much on that to start with today. As such, if that holds then we should see a bit of a bounce today. The FTSE100 is also on its daily support at the 7780 level and that has held well overnight.
Couple that with the fact that the ASX200 had a fairly positive session and the slight uptick in oil prices, we could well see a bit more of a positive day today.
If we do get a rise on the FTSE to start with then I am thinking that the daily pivot and red 30m coral will be the first area of resistance at the 7815 area. We also have the 200ema here (30m) so this level will be key for the bulls to break today. If they manage that then a rise towards the 7865 level would fit the chart very well and also gets the red 2h coral resistance there. We also have the key fib at 7865, so should we see that then the bears may well appear here, and the bulls bank their profit!
Above that then 7898 is R2 with R3 not far above that at 7928. Not expecting us to get that high today though!
For the bears, 7780 initial support as mentioned, then the 7760 level where we have the key fib and the S1 level. This area would be good to see hold should it test that, though we may well just see the bulls straight out the blocks today. 7756 is also the first major daily support and would be the first test of that this week. As such, it would be good to see this area hold.
7735 is then the lower support below that.
Despite the drop yesterday we could have a slightly more optimistic day, at least initially. ECB data is out at 12:30 so expect some movement around then.
Good luck today.
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FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th January 2023

Falling fuel prices and cheaper clothing helped bring inflation down for the second month in a row, adding to evidence that price rises have peaked earlier than expected. Consumer prices grew at 10.5pc in December 2022, continuing the slowdown from a 41-year high in October when they peaked at 11.1pc. The fall in inflation largely came from a drop in fuel prices, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. It said fuel prices rose by 11.5pc in the year to December, down from 17.2pc in November.

It was the right call having the short orders loaded up yesterday, just a shame that the markets didn't quite get high enough before their sell off started. The S&P500 was due a dip anyway to drop down to test the 25ema at the 3916 level on the daily chart and it's pretty much on that to start with today. As such, if that holds then we should see a bit of a bounce today. The FTSE100 is also on its daily support at the 7780 level and that has held well overnight.

Couple that with the fact that the ASX200 had a fairly positive session and the slight uptick in oil prices, we could well see a bit more of a positive day today.

If we do get a rise on the FTSE to start with then I am thinking that the daily pivot and red 30m coral will be the first area of resistance at the 7815 area. We also have the 200ema here (30m) so this level will be key for the bulls to break today. If they manage that then a rise towards the 7865 level would fit the chart very well and also gets the red 2h coral resistance there. We also have the key fib at 7865, so should we see that then the bears may well appear here, and the bulls bank their profit!

Above that then 7898 is R2 with R3 not far above that at 7928. Not expecting us to get that high today though!

For the bears, 7780 initial support as mentioned, then the 7760 level where we have the key fib and the S1 level. This area would be good to see hold should it test that, though we may well just see the bulls straight out the blocks today. 7756 is also the first major daily support and would be the first test of that this week. As such, it would be good to see this area hold.

7735 is then the lower support below that.

Despite the drop yesterday we could have a slightly more optimistic day, at least initially. ECB data is out at 12:30 so expect some movement around then.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates