Quote from Nick on 19th March 2019, 11:26 am

19th March 2019

The FTSE 100 was boosted to a five-month high by sterling’s surge cooling and another jump in iron ore prices. Mining stocks led the index higher as the fallout from the Vale dam disaster in Brazil continued to push prices of the steelmaking ingredient higher. The FTSE 100 jumped 70.91 points to 7,299.19, a sixth straight day of gains. we were a bit unfortunate with the 7285 FTSE short as it dropped off just below earlier in the day before rising further in the afternoon to trigger the stop. However, the S&P short did very well.

The pound has been pulled off a 22-month high versus the euro after MPs and House of Commons speaker John Bercow signalled their opposition to a third meaningful vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal. As the Government held crunch talks with the DUP to win back their support, Mr Bercow warned that Theresa May could not return to Parliament to hold a vote on the same deal.

The setback for the prime minister came amid signs of a growing split within the Conservative Party's Eurosceptic MPs on Mrs May's deal. Sterling was put under pressure in early trade by Brexiteer MP John Redwood warning that "a lot of people" are still against the prime minister's deal despite the threat of a long delay to Brexit. Sterling tumbled as much as 0.9pc versus the euro to €1.1635 as hopes of a swift resolution to the Brexit deadlock receded on currency markets.

Speaker Wrecks May’s Brexit Plan

Theresa May’s Brexit strategy has hit a new hurdle. John Bercow, the U.K. House of Commons Speaker, has effectively banned the prime minister from asking Parliament to vote on the deal for a third time unless it changes significantly. The surprise move makes it more likely that the Britain will have to seek an extension to its European Union membership, potentially giving May’s opponents time to force a rethink of the divorce. “In all likelihood” something new will need to be agreed with the EU, Bercow said. The problem for May is that negotiations have finished and time has almost run out before the U.K. is due to leave the bloc on March 29. The pound fell following Bercow’s remarks.

U.S. Stocks Rally

Equity benchmarks rose at the start of a week filled with potentially significant catalysts — from central bank meetings, geopolitical developments and economic data. Treasuries fluctuated and the dollar slipped. After a 2.9 percent gain last week, the S&P 500 Index climbed to a five-month high as rising oil prices fueled an advance in energy shares. Financials and consumer stocks also advanced, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fought to stay positive even as Boeing declined. European stocks nudged up, led by miners and lenders as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank got the green light to proceed with negotiations on a tie-up. West Texas crude pushed toward a four-month high as OPEC and its allies recommended deferring a decision on whether to extend oil production cuts until June.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction

For today I think we will have another choppy day driven by cable. Probably going to be the case all month as Brexit talk rumbles on. I wanted a better reaction from the bears yesterday at the 7285 level, but the fact that we started to nudge past 7300 and have held that area overnight keeps the bulls in charge. As mentioned previously I fully expect us to rise towards 7400 or higher as we get closer to B-day.

[caption id="attachment_14667" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]

To start with today we have yesterdays high at 7305 as initial resistance, and then a better looking 7330 above that. I think that a short here is worth a go as its between the top of the two Raff channels, and also R1 and a key fib. If we do get a bit of a bearish reaction (bear Tuesday to follow a bull Monday!) then we may well see a backtest of the 7285 level, with a better looking support at 7250 below that where we have S1. The ASX200 was fairly muted as well today, and stayed around the 6200 area for the duration of their session.

If the bulls were able to push past 7330 then we are on the path for 7400 sooner rather than later, though I am not sure that we see that today as we head towards the Fed tomorrow. There is a 7 point dividend today as well so bear that in mind, not as large as some recent ones, but might see a little push up towards the bell.

If the bears were to break below 7250 then we could drop down towards 7160, and possibly the cluster of daily supports at 7050. Would be quite the pull back though, and the general bias is bullish at the moment.

So, fairly simple plan for today but still need to stay nimble, looking at 7330 resistance and 7250 support.

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