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Rise dip rise with new month money to start with | 6610 6650 resistance | 660 6424 support

#1 · 1st March 2021, 10:23 am

Quote from Nick on 1st March 2021, 10:23 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st March 2021
The FTSE 100 suffered its worst day since October as global jitters over a sell-off in bonds hit London, with traders fearful of a spike in inflation. The blue-chip index snapped three straight weeks of gains as it fell 2.5pc yesterday, or 170 points, to below 6,500 for the first time since the start of the month. It tracked falls in Asia and Europe, faring worse than its counterparts on the Continent. The benchmark fell 2.1pc on the week, losing momentum after a record start to the year.

Andy Haldane, chief economist for the Bank of England, said central banks must keep a close eye on inflation or risk letting prices surge as economies burst out of London.
A “resurgent demand” could pressure Covid-hit economies’ shrunken capacity, forcing up inflation, he said. Mr Haldane called inflation a “tiger [that] has been stirred by the extraordinary events and policy actions of the past 12 months”.
US 10-year Treasuries reached a one-year high earlier this week.
Yield Watch
Australian bonds rallied strongly in early Asia trading with investor focus firmly on yields after last week’s turmoil. Asian stocks looked set for a muted start. Ten-year Australian yields fell over 20 basis points, paring some of last week’s 48 basis point surge. Equity futures were little changed in Japan and Australia. U.S. tech stocks staged a modest rebound on the last day of a tumultuous week as a global bond rout eased. The S&P 500 Index closed lower, while Bitcoin fell below $45,000.
China Slows
China’s economic recovery slowed in February as factories shut during the Lunar New Year holidays and virus restrictions dampened what’s usually a busy travel season. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to a nine-month low of 50.6 from 51.3 in January as export orders plunged, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday. That was lower than the median estimate of 51 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Sovereign bonds extended a rebound, U.S. and European equity futures rose and the dollar dipped Monday, signaling calmer markets after the turmoil sparked by last week’s slide in government debt.
Treasury benchmark yields fluctuated around 1.40% and Australian and New Zealand debt rallied sharply. Australia’s 10-year yield slid the most in a year after the central bank doubled purchases at its regular bond-buying operation in a fresh bid to pacify fixed-income markets.
The recovery in bonds helped S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 equity futures advance, while stocks in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong jumped. On Friday, the S&P 500 slipped and tech stocks staged a modest rebound as Treasuries recovered from their sharpest selloff in a year.
Most Group-of-10 currencies climbed, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars among the outperformers despite data showing China’s economic recovery slowed in February. Commodities rose as oil topped $62 a barrel.
Over the weekend, the U.S. House of Representatives passed President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 aid package. The bill heads to the Senate, where Biden will need to woo Republican support or avoid losing a single Democratic vote.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Nice kick up to start the week with that lowest daily support holding at 6463 we had pencilled in for Friday. Was pretty bearish though but since then bond yields (which had put the cat amongst the pigeons back end of last week) have dropped back a bit to help fuel this current bounce. Can the bulls make this stick today though? With Friday's weakness the daily chart has gone bearish and we now have 25ema resistance at 6597 for today. So the bulls will need to push above this level if we are going to get some more upside, otherwise that slide down towards 6400 will continue.
Initial support today is at the 30m coral line at 6512, with the round number of 6500 below that. Then of course Fridays low and daily support at 6463. We then have the key fib level at 6449, and we may well see this lower level hold if tested. S1 at 6424 is lower down, but we may well get an initial dip and then a rise today from slightly higher than that, for a bit of bull Monday, at least initially.
The 2 hour chart also remains bearish as you would expect and the coral has now gone red with 6611 resistance from that. That's just above the Hull moving average at 6586, and was the line we dropped off on Friday at 6625 (though with a slight overshoot to 6647).
On the shorter time frames we have initial resistance at 6547 which is the overnight high and also just above the daily pivot and fib level. As such if this remains as such, then that will help that opening dip play out. Above this the the 200ema on the 30m is at 6594, R1 at 6609 and then the 2h coral, so I am thinking we could see a stutter at this area. Higher up 6649 is daily resistance and Fridays high along with the 10d Raff coming into play at 6659. Will we get that high today?
Maybe not, as the S&P needs to get back above 3873 wit conviction otherwise it looks like there may well be more downside on that looming. Initial support is at the 3816 level with the daily pivot here and the 30m coral.
So, tentatively expecting a bull Monday as long at 6500 holds but upside may well be limited. Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st March 2021

The FTSE 100 suffered its worst day since October as global jitters over a sell-off in bonds hit London, with traders fearful of a spike in inflation. The blue-chip index snapped three straight weeks of gains as it fell 2.5pc yesterday, or 170 points, to below 6,500 for the first time since the start of the month. It tracked falls in Asia and Europe, faring worse than its counterparts on the Continent. The benchmark fell 2.1pc on the week, losing momentum after a record start to the year.

Andy Haldane, chief economist for the Bank of England, said central banks must keep a close eye on inflation or risk letting prices surge as economies burst out of London.

A “resurgent demand” could pressure Covid-hit economies’ shrunken capacity, forcing up inflation, he said. Mr Haldane called inflation a “tiger [that] has been stirred by the extraordinary events and policy actions of the past 12 months”.
US 10-year Treasuries reached a one-year high earlier this week.

Yield Watch

Australian bonds rallied strongly in early Asia trading with investor focus firmly on yields after last week’s turmoil. Asian stocks looked set for a muted start. Ten-year Australian yields fell over 20 basis points, paring some of last week’s 48 basis point surge. Equity futures were little changed in Japan and Australia. U.S. tech stocks staged a modest rebound on the last day of a tumultuous week as a global bond rout eased. The S&P 500 Index closed lower, while Bitcoin fell below $45,000.

China Slows

China’s economic recovery slowed in February as factories shut during the Lunar New Year holidays and virus restrictions dampened what’s usually a busy travel season. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to a nine-month low of 50.6 from 51.3 in January as export orders plunged, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday. That was lower than the median estimate of 51 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Sovereign bonds extended a rebound, U.S. and European equity futures rose and the dollar dipped Monday, signaling calmer markets after the turmoil sparked by last week’s slide in government debt.

Treasury benchmark yields fluctuated around 1.40% and Australian and New Zealand debt rallied sharply. Australia’s 10-year yield slid the most in a year after the central bank doubled purchases at its regular bond-buying operation in a fresh bid to pacify fixed-income markets.

The recovery in bonds helped S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 equity futures advance, while stocks in Japan, Australia and Hong Kong jumped. On Friday, the S&P 500 slipped and tech stocks staged a modest rebound as Treasuries recovered from their sharpest selloff in a year.

Most Group-of-10 currencies climbed, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars among the outperformers despite data showing China’s economic recovery slowed in February. Commodities rose as oil topped $62 a barrel.

Over the weekend, the U.S. House of Representatives passed President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 aid package. The bill heads to the Senate, where Biden will need to woo Republican support or avoid losing a single Democratic vote.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Nice kick up to start the week with that lowest daily support holding at 6463 we had pencilled in for Friday. Was pretty bearish though but since then bond yields (which had put the cat amongst the pigeons back end of last week) have dropped back a bit to help fuel this current bounce. Can the bulls make this stick today though? With Friday's weakness the daily chart has gone bearish and we now have 25ema resistance at 6597 for today. So the bulls will need to push above this level if we are going to get some more upside, otherwise that slide down towards 6400 will continue.

Initial support today is at the 30m coral line at 6512, with the round number of 6500 below that. Then of course Fridays low and daily support at 6463. We then have the key fib level at 6449, and we may well see this lower level hold if tested. S1 at 6424 is lower down, but we may well get an initial dip and then a rise today from slightly higher than that, for a bit of bull Monday, at least initially.

The 2 hour chart also remains bearish as you would expect and the coral has now gone red with 6611 resistance from that. That's just above the Hull moving average at 6586, and was the line we dropped off on Friday at 6625 (though with a slight overshoot to 6647).

On the shorter time frames we have initial resistance at 6547 which is the overnight high and also just above the daily pivot and fib level. As such if this remains as such, then that will help that opening dip play out. Above this the the 200ema on the 30m is at 6594, R1 at 6609 and then the 2h coral, so I am thinking we could see a stutter at this area. Higher up 6649 is daily resistance and Fridays high along with the 10d Raff coming into play at 6659. Will we get that high today?

Maybe not, as the S&P needs to get back above 3873 wit conviction otherwise it looks like there may well be more downside on that looming. Initial support is at the 3816 level with the daily pivot here and the 30m coral.

So, tentatively expecting a bull Monday as long at 6500 holds but upside may well be limited. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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