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Rise and dip today as we head towards 7230 resistance | 7350 above | 7172 support | Live trading discussion

#1 · 14th February 2019, 10:45 am

Quote from Nick on 14th February 2019, 10:45 am
14th February 2019
The FTSE 100 hit a four-month high after global stocks were propelled higher by signs that Donald Trump is softening his stance in the trade war with China. Mr Trump admitted that he could extend a crucial trade talks deadline in early March to help secure a deal with Beijing. Tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods will be automatically hiked on March 2 without a deal.
Led higher by its climbing mining and packaging stocks, the FTSE 100 advanced 0.8pc but fell short of closing above the 7,200 mark.
US stocks later gave up some of their strong gains after US Republican Senator Marco Rubio unveiled a bill to tax share buybacks like dividends in a bid to redirect investment back into the economy. Mr Rubio said that the rule change would drive investment into "productivity" and "jobs". The Dow Jones pulled back to a 0.2pc gain after advancing 0.8pc in early trade.
Trump Says Trade Talks Going "Very Well"
President Donald Trump said talks to resolve the U.S. trade war with China are making good progress. “I think it’s going along very well,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday. “They’re showing us tremendous respect.” Negotiators from the two countries began their latest round of talks this week ahead of the March 1 deadline for additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump has threatened to more than double the rate of duties on $200 billion in Chinese imports. Trump said Tuesday said he’s open to extending a March 1 deadline if the two sides are near an agreement.
U.S. Stocks Gain
Optimism over trade negotiations countered some of the jitters that Senator Marco Rubio triggered when he announced a bill to tax buybacks on equal footing with dividends. Rubio’s tweet Wednesday about his buyback proposal slowed an advance in the S&P 500 Index, but the benchmark still finished higher, even after Netflix dragged on the communication-services sector late in the day. The dollar gained and Treasuries edged lower as data showed U.S. inflation remained contained. Also buoying stocks was news that Trump is closer to accepting a border spending deal, averting another government shutdown.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction
It looks like, initially at least, we may have another fairly flat day with a slow rise towards the 7225/35 resistance level. If we do get a rise this morning to this area then we may well see stutter here as the bulls bank some profit after the recent rises. If they were to break above this 7235 level then I am thinking that we will probably see a rise towards the top of the Raff channels, with the 10 day at 7350 and the 20 day higher at 7400+. Thats for next week I expect though!
[caption id="attachment_14582" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]
We do have some closer resistance at the 7200 level with R1 here, and yesterdays high at 7206 to start with, so the bulls will need quite a push to make another short term high, but the media is starting to get a little bit over excited with that hit of 7200 yesterday. The Fear/greed indicator is on 67/100 now as well, flagging "greed" - worth watching this if we continue rising as when it gets to extreme greed we need to start thinking about reducing the bullish bias.
Initial support is at the pivot at 7172 this morning and the 2 hour chart has a green coral with support at 7149. With the cam break out level at 7151 I am thinking that should we dip this low then a long here is worth a go, as the momentum is still with the bulls. The 2hr and daily charts are still bullish, and the daily support from the 25ema has now moved up to 7010 after yesterdays rise. The key fib support is at 7127 so should the bears break the 7140 level that is the next key level to watch.
I am watching the 7230 area closely to see what reaction we get there if we do rise to that this morning. The ASX200 was also fairly flat today, and the markets will be looking for further concrete commitments with regards to the US/China deal. Still cautiously bullish for the moment. A rise and dip day today would all play out quite well, possibly for a further push higher tomorrow.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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14th February 2019

The FTSE 100 hit a four-month high after global stocks were propelled higher by signs that Donald Trump is softening his stance in the trade war with China. Mr Trump admitted that he could extend a crucial trade talks deadline in early March to help secure a deal with Beijing. Tariffs on $200bn of Chinese goods will be automatically hiked on March 2 without a deal.

Led higher by its climbing mining and packaging stocks, the FTSE 100 advanced 0.8pc but fell short of closing above the 7,200 mark.

US stocks later gave up some of their strong gains after US Republican Senator Marco Rubio unveiled a bill to tax share buybacks like dividends in a bid to redirect investment back into the economy. Mr Rubio said that the rule change would drive investment into "productivity" and "jobs". The Dow Jones pulled back to a 0.2pc gain after advancing 0.8pc in early trade.

Trump Says Trade Talks Going "Very Well"

President Donald Trump said talks to resolve the U.S. trade war with China are making good progress. “I think it’s going along very well,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday. “They’re showing us tremendous respect.” Negotiators from the two countries began their latest round of talks this week ahead of the March 1 deadline for additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump has threatened to more than double the rate of duties on $200 billion in Chinese imports. Trump said Tuesday said he’s open to extending a March 1 deadline if the two sides are near an agreement.

U.S. Stocks Gain

Optimism over trade negotiations countered some of the jitters that Senator Marco Rubio triggered when he announced a bill to tax buybacks on equal footing with dividends. Rubio’s tweet Wednesday about his buyback proposal slowed an advance in the S&P 500 Index, but the benchmark still finished higher, even after Netflix dragged on the communication-services sector late in the day. The dollar gained and Treasuries edged lower as data showed U.S. inflation remained contained. Also buoying stocks was news that Trump is closer to accepting a border spending deal, averting another government shutdown.

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FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction

It looks like, initially at least, we may have another fairly flat day with a slow rise towards the 7225/35 resistance level. If we do get a rise this morning to this area then we may well see stutter here as the bulls bank some profit after the recent rises. If they were to break above this 7235 level then I am thinking that we will probably see a rise towards the top of the Raff channels, with the 10 day at 7350 and the 20 day higher at 7400+. Thats for next week I expect though!

[caption id="attachment_14582" align="aligncenter" width="821"] FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction[/caption]

We do have some closer resistance at the 7200 level with R1 here, and yesterdays high at 7206 to start with, so the bulls will need quite a push to make another short term high, but the media is starting to get a little bit over excited with that hit of 7200 yesterday. The Fear/greed indicator is on 67/100 now as well, flagging "greed" - worth watching this if we continue rising as when it gets to extreme greed we need to start thinking about reducing the bullish bias.

Initial support is at the pivot at 7172 this morning and the 2 hour chart has a green coral with support at 7149. With the cam break out level at 7151 I am thinking that should we dip this low then a long here is worth a go, as the momentum is still with the bulls. The 2hr and daily charts are still bullish, and the daily support from the 25ema has now moved up to 7010 after yesterdays rise. The key fib support is at 7127 so should the bears break the 7140 level that is the next key level to watch.

I am watching the 7230 area closely to see what reaction we get there if we do rise to that this morning. The ASX200 was also fairly flat today, and the markets will be looking for further concrete commitments with regards to the US/China deal. Still cautiously bullish for the moment. A rise and dip day today would all play out quite well, possibly for a further push higher tomorrow.

Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates