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Rise ahead of option expiry tomorrow | 6750 6720 support | 6790 6825 resistance

#1 · 14th January 2021, 1:09 pm

Quote from Nick on 14th January 2021, 1:09 pm
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th January 2021
Yesterday saw the FTSE 100 have a fairly flat day for London’s top listed companies. The FTSE 250 underperformed as the majority of its constituents dipped. The pound nears $1.37 as markets cast doubt on negative rates, which also helped keep a lid on any FTSE 100 rises,

Impeached. Again.
President Donald Trump was impeached by the U.S. House on a single charge of incitement of insurrection for his role in a riot by his supporters that left five dead and the Capitol ransacked. Wednesday’s historic 232-197 vote makes Trump the only U.S. president to be impeached twice, a little more than a year since his first. It was supported by all Democrats and 10 Republicans, including Liz Cheney, the third-ranking GOP leader in the House. Amid all the chaos, top U.S. officials abruptly canceledinternational travel this week out of concern foreign adversaries could exploit a historic political crisis, according to multiple people with the situation.
Yields Drop
Asian shares looked poised for a muted start. Treasuries saw strong demand for a second consecutive day at a government debt sale, helping to send yields down from the highest levels since March. Stock futures were little changed in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. Technology shares led gains in the U.S., with the Nasdaq 100 outperforming the S&P 500. The dollar edged higher. Elsewhere, oil fell as the stronger dollar and rising refined products supply offset shrinking U.S. crude inventories. Bitcoin gained and gold retreated.
Threat Theory
The Trump administration declassified the strategy it is using to ensure continued dominance over China. Approved in 2018, it focuses on accelerating India’s rise as a counterweight to Beijing and the ability to defend Taiwan against an attack. It was released to show the U.S. commitment to “keeping the Indo-Pacific region free and open long into the future", but China said the report had “sensationalized the ‘China threat’ theory”. The Trump administration’s final days are proving as confoundingas ever for companies and investors stuck in the middle of increasing tensions between the two countries.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Treasury yields rose Thursday after a report indicated that President-elect Joe Biden plans a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. In Asia, Japanese stocks outperformed.
Biden’s advisers recently told allies in Congress about the cost of the package, according to the report. Biden is expected to announce his economic support plans later in the day. Yields had earlier steadied after dropping from the highest levels since March following two strong bond auctions this week. The dollar’s initial jump faded.
A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares edged up, on track for another record. U.S. and European stock futures pointed higher. Technology shares led Wall Street gains on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq 100 outperforming the S&P 500.
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. climbed after the U.S. decided against banning American investment in the Chinese tech giants. Oil held losses and Bitcoin fell to $37,000.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Despite being pretty flat on both the FTSE 100 and the S&P the bulls have held on and kept the S&P above the 3800 level, and the FTSE above the 6720 level. As such, we may well still get the leg higher (before a possible slide towards the end of January) and a test of the 2 hour coral resistance at 6830 today. There is decent looking support on the 30m chart at 6750 now, with the coral line having gone green there, and just below the daily pivot. If that holds then we should see a rise towards the 6790 fib level, and then that 2 hour 6830 above that.
We are also getting close to the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel as well, which has support at the 6685 level so should the 6750 level break then we may well start to see a drop down to that. However, the ASX200 put in a bullish shift today and I am thinking that we will do the same, if that initial support holds.
To start with we have initial resistance at the 200ema and R1 level at 6770 as I write this hence thinking a dip and rise will play out, though the bulls will also need to break the second test of the Hull moving average on the 2h at 6779.
With the FTSE being quite flat this week everything has coiled up, and the support and resistance levels have got closer together so we will shortly see a definitive break one way or the other. I am still thinking that there is one push higher left in the tank ahead of Biden's inauguration.
Below 6750 then 6728 is S1 and also just above the recent low of 6720 that held well the other day so watch for a reaction in this area, then 6685 for S3 below this. S2 and the key fib are at 6708 area so this also looks good for a bounce - maybe not "the" low, but should see a reaction.
If the bulls were to break above the 6830 level then we may well be on for a retest of the recent high and daily resistance at 6905. The Raff channels are still heading up so we keep the bullish trend for the time being. Lets hope for a bit more movement today, and a dip and rise pans out. Good luck today.
Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!
Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th January 2021

Yesterday saw the FTSE 100 have a fairly flat day for London’s top listed companies. The FTSE 250 underperformed as the majority of its constituents dipped. The pound nears $1.37 as markets cast doubt on negative rates, which also helped keep a lid on any FTSE 100 rises,

Impeached. Again.

President Donald Trump was impeached by the U.S. House on a single charge of incitement of insurrection for his role in a riot by his supporters that left five dead and the Capitol ransacked. Wednesday’s historic 232-197 vote makes Trump the only U.S. president to be impeached twice, a little more than a year since his first. It was supported by all Democrats and 10 Republicans, including Liz Cheney, the third-ranking GOP leader in the House. Amid all the chaos, top U.S. officials abruptly canceledinternational travel this week out of concern foreign adversaries could exploit a historic political crisis, according to multiple people with the situation.

Yields Drop

Asian shares looked poised for a muted start. Treasuries saw strong demand for a second consecutive day at a government debt sale, helping to send yields down from the highest levels since March. Stock futures were little changed in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. Technology shares led gains in the U.S., with the Nasdaq 100 outperforming the S&P 500. The dollar edged higher. Elsewhere, oil fell as the stronger dollar and rising refined products supply offset shrinking U.S. crude inventories. Bitcoin gained and gold retreated.

Threat Theory

The Trump administration declassified the strategy it is using to ensure continued dominance over China. Approved in 2018, it focuses on accelerating India’s rise as a counterweight to Beijing and the ability to defend Taiwan against an attack. It was released to show the U.S. commitment to “keeping the Indo-Pacific region free and open long into the future", but China said the report had “sensationalized the ‘China threat’ theory”. The Trump administration’s final days are proving as confoundingas ever for companies and investors stuck in the middle of increasing tensions between the two countries.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Treasury yields rose Thursday after a report indicated that President-elect Joe Biden plans a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. In Asia, Japanese stocks outperformed.

Biden’s advisers recently told allies in Congress about the cost of the package, according to the report. Biden is expected to announce his economic support plans later in the day. Yields had earlier steadied after dropping from the highest levels since March following two strong bond auctions this week. The dollar’s initial jump faded.

A gauge of Asia-Pacific shares edged up, on track for another record. U.S. and European stock futures pointed higher. Technology shares led Wall Street gains on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq 100 outperforming the S&P 500.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Tencent Holdings Ltd. climbed after the U.S. decided against banning American investment in the Chinese tech giants. Oil held losses and Bitcoin fell to $37,000.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Despite being pretty flat on both the FTSE 100 and the S&P the bulls have held on and kept the S&P above the 3800 level, and the FTSE above the 6720 level. As such, we may well still get the leg higher (before a possible slide towards the end of January) and a test of the 2 hour coral resistance at 6830 today. There is decent looking support on the 30m chart at 6750 now, with the coral line having gone green there, and just below the daily pivot. If that holds then we should see a rise towards the 6790 fib level, and then that 2 hour 6830 above that.

We are also getting close to the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel as well, which has support at the 6685 level so should the 6750 level break then we may well start to see a drop down to that. However, the ASX200 put in a bullish shift today and I am thinking that we will do the same, if that initial support holds.

To start with we have initial resistance at the 200ema and R1 level at 6770 as I write this hence thinking a dip and rise will play out, though the bulls will also need to break the second test of the Hull moving average on the 2h at 6779.

With the FTSE being quite flat this week everything has coiled up, and the support and resistance levels have got closer together so we will shortly see a definitive break one way or the other. I am still thinking that there is one push higher left in the tank ahead of Biden's inauguration.

Below 6750 then 6728 is S1 and also just above the recent low of 6720 that held well the other day so watch for a reaction in this area, then 6685 for S3 below this. S2 and the key fib are at 6708 area so this also looks good for a bounce - maybe not "the" low, but should see a reaction.

If the bulls were to break above the 6830 level then we may well be on for a retest of the recent high and daily resistance at 6905. The Raff channels are still heading up so we keep the bullish trend for the time being. Lets hope for a bit more movement today, and a dip and rise pans out. Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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