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Red Monday = blue Tuesday | BTFD | Brexit | GDP beat | 6440 6490 resistance | 6330 support

#1 · 22nd December 2020, 10:40 am

Quote from Nick on 22nd December 2020, 10:40 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 21st December 2020
Panic over the new mutant strain of Covid-19 ripped through global markets on Monday as £30bn was wiped off the value of the UK’s biggest companies and the pound dropped sharply.

Yesterday saw wider markets in the doldrums, where sentiment was dire over tougher restrictions being brought in, the discovery of a mutant strain of the virus and European countries barring the entry of UK citizens. London’s equity markets fell into the red, with coronavirus concerns pushed once more into the forefront of traders’ minds. The FTSE 100 closed 112.86 points lower at 6,416.32. Just 12 out of its 101 constituents rose in price.
Airline, travel and retail stocks took the largest hits, as the sectors most affected by supply chain concerns and travel bans. British Airways owner IAG sold off the most, slumping by 12.45p to 143.90p.
The FTSE 100 finished 1.7pc or 112 points lower at 6,416 after a seesaw session as traders had their first chance to react to brutal tier 4 restrictions putting 16m people in London and the South East into effective lockdown. The more domestic-focused FTSE 250 fell 2.1pc to 19,692 points.
Military Ban
The U.S. added more than 100 Chinese and Russian companies to a new list of firms it says have links to their nations’ militaries, a move that will sharply curtail certain types of exports. The list means anyone seeking to sell items that could eventually be used for military purposes to those firms will need a license. Seven subsidiaries of Aviation Industry Corp. of China were included, as well as Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service which has been implicated in a recent cyber-attack on U.S. federal agencies. As Joe Biden takes office next month, he wields more leverage over Beijing than he would have ever sought.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks dipped Tuesday after U.S. equities joined a global decline as a new variant of the coronavirus in the U.K. and a wave of lockdowns and travel restrictions hurt sentiment.
Japan and Australia underperformed as shares slipped across major Asia-Pacific markets. S&P 500 futures edged down after the benchmark fell Monday, with Tesla Inc. the biggest drag in its first day of trading on the gauge. European contracts posted modest gains. The dollar ticked higher, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries was steady. Crude oil held below $48 a barrel.
Global stocks have pulled back after touching a record high last week, with shares in Europe slumping Monday the most since October. The emergence of the variant coronavirus strain in Britain has dented the return-to-work trade, and for now is overshadowing a $900 billion U.S. pandemic relief package and the initial rollout of vaccines. U.S. lawmakers cleared the spending legislation, which now passes to President Donald Trump to sign.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Bears seized their moment yesterday as we finally saw a bit of a pullback after steady rises. Was the worst 21st December trading day in history in terms of performance. However, we have all been expecting a pullback for a while but the trend remains up. The S&P still has the potential for more upside, though the bulls will need to defend the 3650 level today where we have the 25ema on the daily. We moved below that yesterday as fear/greed driven moves tend to do, though the resultant snap back bodes well for the bulls. They will be looking for a push up past 3700 again. At the end of the day, whilst chaotic times at present, the virus is temporary and as these things usually play out over 18 months to 2 years, we are at, or nearly at, the half way point.
For the FTSE 100 the 30min chart is bearish to start with with the daily pivot and the 25ema for resistance at 6400. As such we may well see a drop down from here to the 6330 level where we have S1 and also the 20 day Raff channel. I would like to see this hold really as it keeps alive a push back up towards the 6500 level. Below 6330 then the next main resistance level for me is at 6240/6260 area where we have the 200ema and the daily coral line, along with S2 for today. Will we get that bearish today? Possibly, though we may well see the reopening of the ports and easing of restrictions as the mass testing of lorry drivers may assay the fears. Just as an aside there is growing anger about the number of people fleeing tier 4 areas for coastal resorts and so on. Bit of a tinderbox that as if the cases start to rise in those areas we may well see things escalate.
We have been going on about "buy the dip" for months now and yesterday saw that play out once again, with a decent bounce on the S&P from the 3610 level back to 3700. We also got a 120 point bounce on the FTSE from the 6312 level. We may well get another dip and rise play out today, especially if we see things ease up a bit later in the day. The US will probably help drive things today as well, and as mentioned if that climbs then it may well filter through.
If the bulls can push past the 6400 level then we should see a rise towards the 6490 level where we have the 200ema 30m and also R1 for today. This is also the mod point between the two 2h resistance levels of 6467 and 6515. The bulls will need to break above this area for further upside.
Good luck today and again, stay nimble!
News just in as writing this - UK GDP (Q/Q) Q3F: 16% (est 15.5%, prev 15.5%) - UK GDP (Y/Y) Q3F: -8.6% (est -9.6%, prev 9.6%)
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 21st December 2020

Panic over the new mutant strain of Covid-19 ripped through global markets on Monday as £30bn was wiped off the value of the UK’s biggest companies and the pound dropped sharply.

Yesterday saw wider markets in the doldrums, where sentiment was dire over tougher restrictions being brought in, the discovery of a mutant strain of the virus and European countries barring the entry of UK citizens. London’s equity markets fell into the red, with coronavirus concerns pushed once more into the forefront of traders’ minds. The FTSE 100 closed 112.86 points lower at 6,416.32. Just 12 out of its 101 constituents rose in price.

Airline, travel and retail stocks took the largest hits, as the sectors most affected by supply chain concerns and travel bans. British Airways owner IAG sold off the most, slumping by 12.45p to 143.90p.

The FTSE 100 finished 1.7pc or 112 points lower at 6,416 after a seesaw session as traders had their first chance to react to brutal tier 4 restrictions putting 16m people in London and the South East into effective lockdown. The more domestic-focused FTSE 250 fell 2.1pc to 19,692 points.

Military Ban

The U.S. added more than 100 Chinese and Russian companies to a new list of firms it says have links to their nations’ militaries, a move that will sharply curtail certain types of exports. The list means anyone seeking to sell items that could eventually be used for military purposes to those firms will need a license. Seven subsidiaries of Aviation Industry Corp. of China were included, as well as Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service which has been implicated in a recent cyber-attack on U.S. federal agencies. As Joe Biden takes office next month, he wields more leverage over Beijing than he would have ever sought.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks dipped Tuesday after U.S. equities joined a global decline as a new variant of the coronavirus in the U.K. and a wave of lockdowns and travel restrictions hurt sentiment.

Japan and Australia underperformed as shares slipped across major Asia-Pacific markets. S&P 500 futures edged down after the benchmark fell Monday, with Tesla Inc. the biggest drag in its first day of trading on the gauge. European contracts posted modest gains. The dollar ticked higher, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries was steady. Crude oil held below $48 a barrel.

Global stocks have pulled back after touching a record high last week, with shares in Europe slumping Monday the most since October. The emergence of the variant coronavirus strain in Britain has dented the return-to-work trade, and for now is overshadowing a $900 billion U.S. pandemic relief package and the initial rollout of vaccines. U.S. lawmakers cleared the spending legislation, which now passes to President Donald Trump to sign.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Bears seized their moment yesterday as we finally saw a bit of a pullback after steady rises. Was the worst 21st December trading day in history in terms of performance. However, we have all been expecting a pullback for a while but the trend remains up. The S&P still has the potential for more upside, though the bulls will need to defend the 3650 level today where we have the 25ema on the daily. We moved below that yesterday as fear/greed driven moves tend to do, though the resultant snap back bodes well for the bulls. They will be looking for a push up past 3700 again. At the end of the day, whilst chaotic times at present, the virus is temporary and as these things usually play out over 18 months to 2 years, we are at, or nearly at, the half way point.

For the FTSE 100 the 30min chart is bearish to start with with the daily pivot and the 25ema for resistance at 6400. As such we may well see a drop down from here to the 6330 level where we have S1 and also the 20 day Raff channel. I would like to see this hold really as it keeps alive a push back up towards the 6500 level. Below 6330 then the next main resistance level for me is at 6240/6260 area where we have the 200ema and the daily coral line, along with S2 for today. Will we get that bearish today? Possibly, though we may well see the reopening of the ports and easing of restrictions as the mass testing of lorry drivers may assay the fears. Just as an aside there is growing anger about the number of people fleeing tier 4 areas for coastal resorts and so on. Bit of a tinderbox that as if the cases start to rise in those areas we may well see things escalate.

We have been going on about "buy the dip" for months now and yesterday saw that play out once again, with a decent bounce on the S&P from the 3610 level back to 3700. We also got a 120 point bounce on the FTSE from the 6312 level. We may well get another dip and rise play out today, especially if we see things ease up a bit later in the day. The US will probably help drive things today as well, and as mentioned if that climbs then it may well filter through.

If the bulls can push past the 6400 level then we should see a rise towards the 6490 level where we have the 200ema 30m and also R1 for today. This is also the mod point between the two 2h resistance levels of 6467 and 6515. The bulls will need to break above this area for further upside.

Good luck today and again, stay nimble!

News just in as writing this - UK GDP (Q/Q) Q3F: 16% (est 15.5%, prev 15.5%) - UK GDP (Y/Y) Q3F: -8.6% (est -9.6%, prev 9.6%)

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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