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Post Brexit pump today | still bullish | 6550 6632 6680 resistance | 6480 support

#1 · 4th January 2021, 10:12 am

Quote from Nick on 4th January 2021, 10:12 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th January 2021
Surging optimism that Britain can beat Covid within months and finally move on from Brexit propelled the pound to a two-and-a-half year high against the dollar on the final day of 2020. Sterling climbed to as much as $1.3686 on Thursday last week before falling back to $1.3654, a 0.21pc gain from Wednesday's close.
It puts the pound in line for an upbeat start to 2021 after Parliament approved a trade deal with the European Union and regulators gave backing to AstraZeneca's game-changing coronavirus vaccine. The currency has not been higher since May 2018.

Coronavirus infection numbers have risen sharply in Britain over the last two weeks, driven in part by a new more infectious strain. But traders took comfort from the certainty about the trade deal, along with hope that vaccinations will restore normality in 2021 and power a major economic bounce back. Having now hit a 31-month high, sterling could strengthen further throughout January as the vaccines are rolled out and the new relationship with the EU begins.
Relentless Rally
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, topped $34,000 just weeks after passing another major milestone. The currency gained as much as 9.8% to $34,792.48, before slipping back. It advanced almost 50% in December, when it breached $20,000 for the first time. The currency “will be on the road to $50,000 probably in the first quarter of 2021,” said Antoni Trenchev, managing partner and co-founder of Nexo in London, which bills itself as the world’s biggest crypto lender.
Markets at Record
Stocks are set to enter the new year at a record high when the first day of trading for 2021 kicks off in Asia Monday. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs on Dec. 31. Most markets around the world were shut on Jan. 1. The dollar opened mixed against its G-10 peers as trading started in Sydney. The pound dipped as the U.K. faces a tighter lockdown to stem the march of the coronavirus. OPEC warned of risks to the oil market from the resurgent pandemic, a day before the group and its allies meet to consider another increase in production.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
The dollar slipped and a gauge of global stocks headed toward a record Monday as the rollout of vaccines and stimulus support eased concerns about the escalating pandemic. Gold and Treasury yields climbed.
Shares jumped in South Korea and Australia, but underperformed in Japan after Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said he’s considering declaring a state of emergency for the Tokyo area to stem a surge in virus infections. S&P 500 futures fluctuated after the benchmark closed at an all-time high on Dec. 31. Gold climbed to the highest level in almost two months.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
Start of the new trading year and week and after the Brexit deal has been done I am expecting a push up of the UK markets if for no other reason than to steady any nerves post Brexit. The S&P remains on track for a push towards the 3800 area at the moment, and the trends are still firmly up after the bullish run we have had. That said I am also expecting a snap back at some point as the bears will want to have their moment in the sun. As you probably remember I was thinking that we will remain bullish till mid-January time, and it as that point we may well see the bears appear. Might tally with the 6700/6800 area on the FTSE 100 as well as we have the top of the Raff channels in this area.
The S&P bulls defended a few tests of the 200ema on the 30m over the festive holidays so that 3730 area is the line on the sand for the moment - the bulls will want to defend that as a break of that will likely see a test of the bottom of the Raff channels at the 3650 level. For the moment it looks like we will see push up towards the 3805 R3 level though.
For the FTSE 100, we have initial resistance at the 6525 level with the 200ema here on the 30m chart, and we may well see a small dip off this this morning. Above this level then I am watching the 6560 area where we have the Hull moving average and coral line on the 2 hour chart for resistance. Should the bulls push past this then R2 at 6582 would be the next level of note, with the daily resistance level of 6604 above that. May well be worth trying a small short of this level as it is half way between R2 and R3.
For support the bears will want to defend the daily pivot first at 6482 as a break of that will lead to a test of the 30min coral line and fib level at 6460. I would like to see this level hold for a rise back up past the 6500 level and if we do get a "buy the dip" play out today then this area should hold. A break below 6460 though and 6432 is S1, and also the low of the 31st December 2020. Not expecting that low today but if a break of that then the daily coral line is at 6380 and would be the first test of that since it changed to green.
However, I would expect 6460 to hold on any dip down today and expect a bull Monday today, with either a steady rise and trending up or a dip and rise.
Gold looks like its on track for a rise to the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 1942 having broken above R3 today. There is a gap at 1900 so they will be keen to defend that, but we may well get a back test of the 1920 R3 level having broken above, and then a push to 1942. A stutter here may well be seen.
Good luck today and watch for the S&P to rise to test the 3800+ level.
Good luck today and enjoy your break.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th January 2021

Surging optimism that Britain can beat Covid within months and finally move on from Brexit propelled the pound to a two-and-a-half year high against the dollar on the final day of 2020. Sterling climbed to as much as $1.3686 on Thursday last week before falling back to $1.3654, a 0.21pc gain from Wednesday's close.
It puts the pound in line for an upbeat start to 2021 after Parliament approved a trade deal with the European Union and regulators gave backing to AstraZeneca's game-changing coronavirus vaccine. The currency has not been higher since May 2018.

Coronavirus infection numbers have risen sharply in Britain over the last two weeks, driven in part by a new more infectious strain. But traders took comfort from the certainty about the trade deal, along with hope that vaccinations will restore normality in 2021 and power a major economic bounce back. Having now hit a 31-month high, sterling could strengthen further throughout January as the vaccines are rolled out and the new relationship with the EU begins.

Relentless Rally
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, topped $34,000 just weeks after passing another major milestone. The currency gained as much as 9.8% to $34,792.48, before slipping back. It advanced almost 50% in December, when it breached $20,000 for the first time. The currency “will be on the road to $50,000 probably in the first quarter of 2021,” said Antoni Trenchev, managing partner and co-founder of Nexo in London, which bills itself as the world’s biggest crypto lender.

Markets at Record
Stocks are set to enter the new year at a record high when the first day of trading for 2021 kicks off in Asia Monday. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs on Dec. 31. Most markets around the world were shut on Jan. 1. The dollar opened mixed against its G-10 peers as trading started in Sydney. The pound dipped as the U.K. faces a tighter lockdown to stem the march of the coronavirus. OPEC warned of risks to the oil market from the resurgent pandemic, a day before the group and its allies meet to consider another increase in production.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

The dollar slipped and a gauge of global stocks headed toward a record Monday as the rollout of vaccines and stimulus support eased concerns about the escalating pandemic. Gold and Treasury yields climbed.

Shares jumped in South Korea and Australia, but underperformed in Japan after Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said he’s considering declaring a state of emergency for the Tokyo area to stem a surge in virus infections. S&P 500 futures fluctuated after the benchmark closed at an all-time high on Dec. 31. Gold climbed to the highest level in almost two months.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Start of the new trading year and week and after the Brexit deal has been done I am expecting a push up of the UK markets if for no other reason than to steady any nerves post Brexit. The S&P remains on track for a push towards the 3800 area at the moment, and the trends are still firmly up after the bullish run we have had. That said I am also expecting a snap back at some point as the bears will want to have their moment in the sun. As you probably remember I was thinking that we will remain bullish till mid-January time, and it as that point we may well see the bears appear. Might tally with the 6700/6800 area on the FTSE 100 as well as we have the top of the Raff channels in this area.

The S&P bulls defended a few tests of the 200ema on the 30m over the festive holidays so that 3730 area is the line on the sand for the moment - the bulls will want to defend that as a break of that will likely see a test of the bottom of the Raff channels at the 3650 level. For the moment it looks like we will see push up towards the 3805 R3 level though.

For the FTSE 100, we have initial resistance at the 6525 level with the 200ema here on the 30m chart, and we may well see a small dip off this this morning. Above this level then I am watching the 6560 area where we have the Hull moving average and coral line on the 2 hour chart for resistance. Should the bulls push past this then R2 at 6582 would be the next level of note, with the daily resistance level of 6604 above that. May well be worth trying a small short of this level as it is half way between R2 and R3.

For support the bears will want to defend the daily pivot first at 6482 as a break of that will lead to a test of the 30min coral line and fib level at 6460. I would like to see this level hold for a rise back up past the 6500 level and if we do get a "buy the dip" play out today then this area should hold. A break below 6460 though and 6432 is S1, and also the low of the 31st December 2020. Not expecting that low today but if a break of that then the daily coral line is at 6380 and would be the first test of that since it changed to green.

However, I would expect 6460 to hold on any dip down today and expect a bull Monday today, with either a steady rise and trending up or a dip and rise.

Gold looks like its on track for a rise to the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 1942 having broken above R3 today. There is a gap at 1900 so they will be keen to defend that, but we may well get a back test of the 1920 R3 level having broken above, and then a push to 1942. A stutter here may well be seen.

Good luck today and watch for the S&P to rise to test the 3800+ level.

Good luck today and enjoy your break.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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