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Possible dip and rise today with 7540 7499 support | 7599 7627 resistance | Fed Wednesday

#1 · 4th April 2022, 9:00 am

Quote from Nick on 4th April 2022, 9:00 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 closed Friday up 0.3pc at 7,537, which some analysts see as a disconnect from the current economic climate.
Stocks rose Monday amid a rally in Hong Kong spurred by China’s move to ease a dispute with the U.S. over audits. Treasuries fell on the prospect of sharp Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to fight inflation.
Chinese tech shares in Hong Kong rose 3% after Beijing sought to modify a rule that restricts offshore-listed firms from sharing sensitive financial data with foreign regulators. That may allow the U.S. to gain full access to audits, reducing the risk of Chinese firms losing their Wall Street listings.
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures were steady, while the dollar was firm. Traders weighed the prospect of stiffer sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine. Some European governments are pushing for new penalties due to reports that Russian troops executed unarmed civilians in Ukrainian towns.
Oil paused a retreat sparked by the U.S. announcement of an unprecedented release of strategic reserves to fight elevated energy costs.
The Treasury yield curve is flashing more warnings that economic growth will slow as the Fed raises rates to tame inflation stoked in part by commodities. The two-year U.S. yield has exceeded the 30-year for the first time since 2007, joining inversions on other parts of the curve.
The Fed minutes later this week will shape views on the odds of a half percentage-point rate increase in May and provide key details on how the central bank will shrink its balance sheet.
War Crimes
Some European Union governments are pushing for the bloc to quickly impose new sanctions in response to multiple reports that Russian troops executed unarmed civilians in Ukrainian towns, according to diplomats familiar with the discussions. Elsewhere, an increasing number of Russian ships are switching their flags to other countries; the EU tells China it expects Beijing to help end the war; and India says it will continue to buy cheap Russian oil.
Access All Areas
Stocks may get a boost Monday from Beijing’s move to ease an audit dispute that imperils the U.S. listings of Chinese firms. Equity futures earlier rose for Hong Kong, where Chinese technology shares could get a tailwind after regulators removed a key hurdle that impedes full U.S. access to audits. Contracts for Japan and Australia pointed to steady starts, while those for the U.S. dipped. The U.S. Treasury yield curve is flashing more warnings that economic growth will slow. Crude oil fell.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th April 2022
That was a good hold of the 7515 daily support level on Friday and the the S&P bulls hopped on the band wagon too for a decent bounce from the 4515 level. It will be interesting to see if the bulls build on that today for further upside and to put in a bit of a bull Monday. Oil has remained at the $100 a barrel area (the drop form $135 yet to get through to the pumps though, funny that).
Initially for the FTSE100 today I am thinking that we will get a dip and rise play out with the 7540 area looking to be tested first thing this morning. We have a couple of decent supports here, namely the 30m coral and the 200ema and also just below the daily pivot.
I would like to see a rise to test the 7600 level though as we have 7599 for the key fib and 7596 as daily resistance. Above this level the 10 day Raff channel is at 7634 and should we see that then a short here is worth a go. I dont think we will see much past that today but if we did then the next key level is 7660 where we have R3. Seems a big ask, especially as we head towards the Fed minutes on Wednesday (7pm). These will shape views on the odds of a half percentage-point rate increase in May and provide key details on how the central bank will shrink its balance sheet.
For support then as mentioned the 7540 level looks key to start with. A break of that and we will probably drop as far as the key fib at 7499. However the 2hr chart is bullish after that rise on Friday and does have 7560 as Hull MA support, along with the coral at 7557. As such, this will give weight to the bulls defending the dip and a decent rise. We may well just overshoot those supports to test the 7540 area though.
The ASX200 followed a similar pattern with a dip-rise-dip and I am thinking that we may well do similar.
Not much more to say really, a few are on Easter holidays this week while others start next week for the schools. That may well see slightly lower volumes.
Good luck today.
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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 closed Friday up 0.3pc at 7,537, which some analysts see as a disconnect from the current economic climate.

Stocks rose Monday amid a rally in Hong Kong spurred by China’s move to ease a dispute with the U.S. over audits. Treasuries fell on the prospect of sharp Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to fight inflation.

Chinese tech shares in Hong Kong rose 3% after Beijing sought to modify a rule that restricts offshore-listed firms from sharing sensitive financial data with foreign regulators. That may allow the U.S. to gain full access to audits, reducing the risk of Chinese firms losing their Wall Street listings.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures were steady, while the dollar was firm. Traders weighed the prospect of stiffer sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine. Some European governments are pushing for new penalties due to reports that Russian troops executed unarmed civilians in Ukrainian towns.

Oil paused a retreat sparked by the U.S. announcement of an unprecedented release of strategic reserves to fight elevated energy costs.

The Treasury yield curve is flashing more warnings that economic growth will slow as the Fed raises rates to tame inflation stoked in part by commodities. The two-year U.S. yield has exceeded the 30-year for the first time since 2007, joining inversions on other parts of the curve.

The Fed minutes later this week will shape views on the odds of a half percentage-point rate increase in May and provide key details on how the central bank will shrink its balance sheet.

War Crimes
Some European Union governments are pushing for the bloc to quickly impose new sanctions in response to multiple reports that Russian troops executed unarmed civilians in Ukrainian towns, according to diplomats familiar with the discussions. Elsewhere, an increasing number of Russian ships are switching their flags to other countries; the EU tells China it expects Beijing to help end the war; and India says it will continue to buy cheap Russian oil.

Access All Areas
Stocks may get a boost Monday from Beijing’s move to ease an audit dispute that imperils the U.S. listings of Chinese firms. Equity futures earlier rose for Hong Kong, where Chinese technology shares could get a tailwind after regulators removed a key hurdle that impedes full U.S. access to audits. Contracts for Japan and Australia pointed to steady starts, while those for the U.S. dipped. The U.S. Treasury yield curve is flashing more warnings that economic growth will slow. Crude oil fell.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th April 2022

That was a good hold of the 7515 daily support level on Friday and the the S&P bulls hopped on the band wagon too for a decent bounce from the 4515 level. It will be interesting to see if the bulls build on that today for further upside and to put in a bit of a bull Monday. Oil has remained at the $100 a barrel area (the drop form $135 yet to get through to the pumps though, funny that).

Initially for the FTSE100 today I am thinking that we will get a dip and rise play out with the 7540 area looking to be tested first thing this morning. We have a couple of decent supports here, namely the 30m coral and the 200ema and also just below the daily pivot.

I would like to see a rise to test the 7600 level though as we have 7599 for the key fib and 7596 as daily resistance. Above this level the 10 day Raff channel is at 7634 and should we see that then a short here is worth a go. I dont think we will see much past that today but if we did then the next key level is 7660 where we have R3. Seems a big ask, especially as we head towards the Fed minutes on Wednesday (7pm). These will shape views on the odds of a half percentage-point rate increase in May and provide key details on how the central bank will shrink its balance sheet.

For support then as mentioned the 7540 level looks key to start with. A break of that and we will probably drop as far as the key fib at 7499. However the 2hr chart is bullish after that rise on Friday and does have 7560 as Hull MA support, along with the coral at 7557. As such, this will give weight to the bulls defending the dip and a decent rise. We may well just overshoot those supports to test the 7540 area though.

The ASX200 followed a similar pattern with a dip-rise-dip and I am thinking that we may well do similar.

Not much more to say really, a few are on Easter holidays this week while others start next week for the schools. That may well see slightly lower volumes.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates