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Possible bear Tuesday with 7563 7599 7610 resistance | 7533 7510 support | Fed minutes tomorrow

#1 · 5th April 2022, 9:44 am

Quote from Nick on 5th April 2022, 9:44 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 recorded another positive close, helped by shares in house builders rising on the back of reports the Government may not demand £4bn to help leaseholders trapped with unsafe cladding on their buildings. The index closed 0.3pc higher at 7,558.
Stocks in Asia wavered Tuesday and crude oil climbed as investors evaluated the prospect of tougher sanctions against Russia for alleged atrocities during the war in Ukraine.
Shares were mixed in Japan and fluctuated in South Korea, where faster inflation added to the case for more interest-rate hikes. U.S. and European futures were steady after the technology sector boosted Wall Street Monday.
Oil advanced on renewed fears about supply disruptions due to the war. The European Union is working on new Russian sanctions, while the U.S. said it may impose further penalties this week. Russia rejected allegations of war crimes.
Treasuries retreated, with the spotlight remaining on inverted yield curves. The latter point to an economic downturn should the Federal Reserve deliver a series of aggressive rate rises to quell price pressures.
Australia’s dollar strengthened and the nation’s sovereign bonds fell as the central bank left borrowing costs unchanged but jettisoned a reference to being patient over tighter policy.
Facing Justice
U.S. President Joe Biden said Russian leader Vladimir Putin could face a war crimes trial and vowed Washington would impose additional sanctions against Russia, as he condemned alleged atrocities committed against civilians in Ukraine. The world has reacted with horror and outrage at the large numbers of civilian casualties in towns surrounding Kyiv that were among the first targets of invading Russian forces. Russia “categorically denies” allegations that its forces killed civilians in Bucha.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th April 2022
The bulls defended the support level at 7535 yesterday but didn't really pull away from it, and in fact we have generally stayed within quite a tight range. We may well see a bear Tuesday today as the S&P500 gets near to its red 2h coral resistance at 4586, and that may well tie in with an initial drop on the FTSE100 from the red 30m coral at 7562. I expect an initial drop off this to start with.
The 2h FTSE100 chart is also bearish again and 7560 is the Hull MA that the bulls will need to break. Should they manage to do so then a rise towards the daily resistance at 7599 looks possible, and then we have the 7620 level above that on the daily - and just above R2 and the key fib at 7610.
I don't think that we will see much higher than that today and will probably mimic the ASX200 again with a dip rise dip pattern playing out.
For the bears they will be looking to break below the 7533 S1 level as that will likely lead to 7511 where we have the key fib, and just above the S2 level at 7508. With the 7500 round number not far below that then the bulls will certainly be keen to defend any drops to this area, as a break of that will likely lead to the 7483 S3 level. It's also worth noting that the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel is at 7510 so again adding weight to this area as support. That would also be the first test of the channel edges in a while so should get a reaction.
S&P500
4567 (handy!) is the 2h support level and we may well see this tested and hold this morning. As mentioned above 4586 is the 2h coral now red and that will be the level that the bulls will want to break. As such we have a fairly tight range for today based on the 2h chart. With the daily pivot and the 30m coral also at the 4566 level we should see this hold though a break of that and we will likely head down to the 4517 S2 level and also the bottom of the 10d Raff channel. As with the FTSE100 I would like to see this hold if tested as it would be the first test of this channel in a while.
The bulls will be looking to break above the 4586 level and that would likely lead to 4598 where we have R1 if so. The bears will likely try and defend this level if seen, being the round number. We also have the Fed minutes out tomorrow so a bit of profit taking at this level would fit well.
Dax40
As with the other 2 we have a tight range on the 2h chart with 14530 resistance and 14470 support. 14593 is the key fib and a rise to this before a drop down would fit the chart well. 14391 is the lower fib support and if that is seen it should hold. With 14470 2h support lining up with the daily pivot at 14482 we may see this hold initially for that push to the upper fib resistance. That said a bear Tuesday on the Dax may well play out!
Summary
So, expecting a bit of a bear Tuesday and watching the 7562 and 7600 resistance levels on the FTSE100, with 7533 and 7510 as the supports.
Good luck today.
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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 recorded another positive close, helped by shares in house builders rising on the back of reports the Government may not demand £4bn to help leaseholders trapped with unsafe cladding on their buildings. The index closed 0.3pc higher at 7,558.

Stocks in Asia wavered Tuesday and crude oil climbed as investors evaluated the prospect of tougher sanctions against Russia for alleged atrocities during the war in Ukraine.

Shares were mixed in Japan and fluctuated in South Korea, where faster inflation added to the case for more interest-rate hikes. U.S. and European futures were steady after the technology sector boosted Wall Street Monday.

Oil advanced on renewed fears about supply disruptions due to the war. The European Union is working on new Russian sanctions, while the U.S. said it may impose further penalties this week. Russia rejected allegations of war crimes.

Treasuries retreated, with the spotlight remaining on inverted yield curves. The latter point to an economic downturn should the Federal Reserve deliver a series of aggressive rate rises to quell price pressures.

Australia’s dollar strengthened and the nation’s sovereign bonds fell as the central bank left borrowing costs unchanged but jettisoned a reference to being patient over tighter policy.

Facing Justice
U.S. President Joe Biden said Russian leader Vladimir Putin could face a war crimes trial and vowed Washington would impose additional sanctions against Russia, as he condemned alleged atrocities committed against civilians in Ukraine. The world has reacted with horror and outrage at the large numbers of civilian casualties in towns surrounding Kyiv that were among the first targets of invading Russian forces. Russia “categorically denies” allegations that its forces killed civilians in Bucha.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th April 2022

The bulls defended the support level at 7535 yesterday but didn't really pull away from it, and in fact we have generally stayed within quite a tight range. We may well see a bear Tuesday today as the S&P500 gets near to its red 2h coral resistance at 4586, and that may well tie in with an initial drop on the FTSE100 from the red 30m coral at 7562. I expect an initial drop off this to start with.

The 2h FTSE100 chart is also bearish again and 7560 is the Hull MA that the bulls will need to break. Should they manage to do so then a rise towards the daily resistance at 7599 looks possible, and then we have the 7620 level above that on the daily - and just above R2 and the key fib at 7610.

I don't think that we will see much higher than that today and will probably mimic the ASX200 again with a dip rise dip pattern playing out.

For the bears they will be looking to break below the 7533 S1 level as that will likely lead to 7511 where we have the key fib, and just above the S2 level at 7508. With the 7500 round number not far below that then the bulls will certainly be keen to defend any drops to this area, as a break of that will likely lead to the 7483 S3 level. It's also worth noting that the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel is at 7510 so again adding weight to this area as support. That would also be the first test of the channel edges in a while so should get a reaction.

S&P500
4567 (handy!) is the 2h support level and we may well see this tested and hold this morning. As mentioned above 4586 is the 2h coral now red and that will be the level that the bulls will want to break. As such we have a fairly tight range for today based on the 2h chart. With the daily pivot and the 30m coral also at the 4566 level we should see this hold though a break of that and we will likely head down to the 4517 S2 level and also the bottom of the 10d Raff channel. As with the FTSE100 I would like to see this hold if tested as it would be the first test of this channel in a while.

The bulls will be looking to break above the 4586 level and that would likely lead to 4598 where we have R1 if so. The bears will likely try and defend this level if seen, being the round number. We also have the Fed minutes out tomorrow so a bit of profit taking at this level would fit well.

Dax40
As with the other 2 we have a tight range on the 2h chart with 14530 resistance and 14470 support. 14593 is the key fib and a rise to this before a drop down would fit the chart well. 14391 is the lower fib support and if that is seen it should hold. With 14470 2h support lining up with the daily pivot at 14482 we may see this hold initially for that push to the upper fib resistance. That said a bear Tuesday on the Dax may well play out!

Summary
So, expecting a bit of a bear Tuesday and watching the 7562 and 7600 resistance levels on the FTSE100, with 7533 and 7510 as the supports.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates