Quote from Nick on 19th March 2021, 9:54 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th March 2021

• Nasdaq drops sharply
• Bank of England keeps policy unchanged
• MPC members divided on strength of economy
• FTSE 100 and pound both dip slightly
• Bond yields rise as sell-off continues

Oil has had its biggest intraday drop since October in New York amid short-term demand concerns and a rising dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell as much as 6.2pc and is on track to extend its stretch of daily losses to the longest in over a year. Brent slid more than 5pc.

European's Medicine Agency (EMA) has concluded the AstraZeneca vaccine is a 'safe and effective vaccine'. Emer Cooke, chief of the EMA, said the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is not associated "with an increase in the overall risk of thromboembolic events and blood clots."

U.S.-China Talks

The first face-to-face talks between senior U.S. and Chinese officials since President Joe Biden took office are off to a rough start. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken began his remarks in Alaska by vowing to raise concerns about recent cyber attacks, the treatment of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang and Beijing’s increasing control over Hong Kong. He said China’s actions threatened the international order and human rights. Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi shot back with a lengthy monologue in which he said Western nations don’t represent global public opinion and called the U.S. the “champion” of cyber-attacks. Beijing is seeking a meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping if this week's high-level talks are productive, but the U.S. has sought to set low expectations for a breakthrough.

Slow Stocks

Asian stocks looked set to drop after U.S. shares fell from a record, with equity futures pointing lower in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. Oil plunged more than 9% at one point and traders were also bracing for quadruple witching Friday, a major expirations of options and futures contracts that can exacerbate swings in asset prices. Treasury yields touched the highest levels in more than a year amid concern the Federal Reserve will allow inflation to accelerate. Bridgewater's Ray Dalio saidrising inflation could force the Fed to raise rates earlier than anticipated.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks weakened Friday after U.S. shares fell from a record, with Treasury yields hovering around the highest levels in over a year as the Federal Reserve’s tolerant stance on inflation unnerved investors.

Japan’s Topix pared losses and the Nikkei 225 sank after the Bank of Japan said it will focus purchases of exchange-traded funds on the former gauge. Chinese shares slumped as chilly U.S.-China talks soured the mood. U.S. stock futures fluctuated after the Nasdaq 100 slid 3.1% and the S&P 500 fell 1.5%.

U.S. Treasury yields steadied after a spike drove the 10-year benchmark to 1.75% for the first time since January 2020. Crude prices struggled following a 7% plunge that owed partly to concerns that new virus-related curbs in Europe will sap demand. The dollar held its gains from the prior day.

The Bank of Japan’s policy decision included a widening of the flexible trading band to 25 basis points either side of its 0% target for the 10-year yield. Government bonds and the yen were little changed on the announcement.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s willingness to let the U.S. economy run hotter with central bank support has spurred bets on faster inflation, sending market expectations of price pressures to multi-year highs. Across the Atlantic, France announced a lockdown of areas including Paris to fight the pandemic, casting a cloud over Europe’s outlook amid an uneven vaccine roll out.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Been a bit of a strange week on the FTSE this one, but the bears are starting to get a bit stronger. That said with option expiry today we may well see a climb today before more bearishness later and next week.

Initial support is at the 6700 level today and the bulls will certainly be keen to defend this, maybe just below at 6690 as we have the 25ema on the daily chart here. 6695 is the green daily coral line and will be the first time we have tested that since it changed colour to an uptrend. Coupled with this daily support we also have the key fib and S1 at this 6695 level so should we see that early on then I would like to see that hold and get a decent reaction.

The 2 hour chart remains bearish after yesterday and has resistance at the 6793 level - if the bulls can get it that high that may well mark the high for today, as we have failed to break the 6815 level this week and the bears will be keen to capitalise on that. The S&P also failed just shy of the rather obvious 4000 level, topping out this week so far at 3989.

The S&P will need to defend the 3892 level today where we have S1 if it's to remain bullish, and ideally get back above the daily pivot for today which is at 3940. 3896 is also the 25ema on the daily chart and will be the first test of that, so again, I would really like to see that hold. Whether we get a rise back towards 4000 remains to be seen though. Bit make or break this 3895 level!

For the FTSE, below the 6690 level will likely see a slide down to the 6630 area where we have the bottom of the 10 and 20 day Raff channels. Prior to that we do have S2 at 6660, but S3 at 6604.

So looking at a rise and dip really for today, don't forget option expiry at 10:10 this morning where we will see some choppy action. Have a great weekend and good luck today.

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