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Option Expiry today | 6660 6688 6730 resistance | 6590 6562 support

#1 · 19th February 2021, 9:50 am

Quote from Nick on 19th February 2021, 9:50 am
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th February 2021
A set of relatively glum earnings reports undermining hopes of an impending economic recovery, combined with a strong pound sent London’s FTSE 100 down on Thursday by the most in nearly three weeks.
Sterling surged 0.7pc against the US dollar to touch an almost three-year high of $1.395. Against the euro, the pound was up 0.4pc by close. The benchmark’s 93.75 point fall to 6617.15 extended this week’s losses, led by healthcare, energy and banking stocks. The FTSE 250 dropped 215.62 points to 20,933.87.
Barclays added to the host of bad earnings, weighing the FTSE 100 down with a loss of 6.86p to end at 147.50p. The banking giant resumed dividend payouts and unveiled a £1.6bn bonus pool for employees, but investors focused on the numbers that showed annual profits almost halved to £3.2bn as it set aside £4.8bn for loan losses.
Markets Slide
Asian stocks looked poised to track small losses in their U.S. peers and Treasury yields edged higher as investors assessed how rising borrowing costs could impact the equity rally. The dollar weakened. Futures pointed lower in Japan and Hong Kong after the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 both slipped about 0.4%. A report earlier showed initial jobless claims rose more than expected. Crude oil fell for the first session in four. The pound touched the strongest level versus the euro since March amid continued optimism over the nation’s vaccine rollout. Bitcoin retreated, though remained above $52,000.
Talks With Zuckerberg
Australia will hold talks with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a bid to break a legal standoff after the tech giant angered the government by blocking the nation’s news sharing on its platform. Zuckerberg’s company switched off the main news source for almost one in five Australians and disabled a raft of government Facebook pages carrying public health advice on the coronavirus, warnings from the weather bureau and even the site of a children’s hospital. Despite the meeting with Zuckerberg, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the government would be proceeding with controversial legislation that would force Facebook and Google to pay Australian publishers for news content.[Bloomberg]
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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Stocks and futures retreated Friday after a decline on Wall Street as investors mulled the impact of the recent climb in Treasury yields on the outlook for equities. Crude oil added to recent losses.
A gauge of global shares headed for its first weekly fall since January with Australia and Hong Kong among Asian underperformers. S&P 500 futures dipped after the index declined Thursday. A report showing U.S. initial jobless claims rose more than expected underlined the challenges for the recovery from the pandemic. Ten-year Treasury yields held an advance. The dollar edged up.
Japan’s 10-year sovereign bond yield rose to the highest in more than two years amid the global debt selloff. The pound dipped after a rally driven by optimism over the U.K. vaccine rollout. Bitcoin fell back below $52,000. Copper extended a rise to an eight-year high.
Benchmark Treasury yields at the highest in a year stirred a debate on whether a further rise might trigger a shake-out in risk assets. Recent economic data are a reminder of the fragility of the growth backdrop, with much depending on the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated the need for $1.9 trillion in pandemic-relief spending.
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
The bulls defended the 6600 level yesterday though we have had a test of 6580 overnight, so that is the line on the sand for today. A break of that and we will more than likely see a slide down towards the 6500 level as the bearish 2 hour chart continues to play out. However, we are at the bottom fo the 10 day Raff channel initially this morning, with support at 6600 from that and as such we could see an initial bounce towards the 6660 resistance level before some more selling.
We have option expiry today so we will get a bit of chop at 10:10 this morning; it usually spikes up and then drops back down (but not always) so be prepared for that.
Below the 6580 level I am watching the 6560 level as support as we have S1 here and it is also a key daily level, with 6500 below that. If we do start to see these sort of levels though that is a fairly convincing break of the 25ema on the daily chart and would probably mark the end of that bullishness that saw the slightly suspect rise to 6800 at the start of the week. Probably a stop hunting/suck in retail rally that one!
Talking of bulls, they will need to get the price above the 6660 area as we have few key resistance levels here, namely the key fib for today and the 30m 200ema. That is also just above the daily pivot at 6646. Higher up the daily resistance level ties in with the cam breakout at 6688. The 2 hour chart remains bearish, and we dropped off the first test of the Hull MA at 6760 on Wednesday, and that line has now dropped to 6735 for today. We also have a red coral at 6747 so any move up to this area may well stall around here.
Meanwhile, over on the S&P the bulls are valiantly defending the 3900 level however the 2h chart has 3926 and 3937 as resistance on that for today so we may well see any bounce fizzle out around that area. If the bears were to break the overnight low at 3894 though then 3882 S1 would be seen, and a break of that gets things a lot more bearish state side. We also have 3921 200ema resistance, along with the key fib at 3925 so the bulls certainly have their work cut out. Will we get a late Friday pump on the US markets again?
Still thinking that shorting the rallies is the right play for the moment, watch that 6660 area as the main resistance for today. Good luck and have a great weekend.
Recommended Broker

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Membership and Live Trading
If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.
What you get
Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
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Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates
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FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 19th February 2021

A set of relatively glum earnings reports undermining hopes of an impending economic recovery, combined with a strong pound sent London’s FTSE 100 down on Thursday by the most in nearly three weeks.

Sterling surged 0.7pc against the US dollar to touch an almost three-year high of $1.395. Against the euro, the pound was up 0.4pc by close. The benchmark’s 93.75 point fall to 6617.15 extended this week’s losses, led by healthcare, energy and banking stocks. The FTSE 250 dropped 215.62 points to 20,933.87.

Barclays added to the host of bad earnings, weighing the FTSE 100 down with a loss of 6.86p to end at 147.50p. The banking giant resumed dividend payouts and unveiled a £1.6bn bonus pool for employees, but investors focused on the numbers that showed annual profits almost halved to £3.2bn as it set aside £4.8bn for loan losses.

Markets Slide

Asian stocks looked poised to track small losses in their U.S. peers and Treasury yields edged higher as investors assessed how rising borrowing costs could impact the equity rally. The dollar weakened. Futures pointed lower in Japan and Hong Kong after the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 both slipped about 0.4%. A report earlier showed initial jobless claims rose more than expected. Crude oil fell for the first session in four. The pound touched the strongest level versus the euro since March amid continued optimism over the nation’s vaccine rollout. Bitcoin retreated, though remained above $52,000.

Talks With Zuckerberg

Australia will hold talks with Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg in a bid to break a legal standoff after the tech giant angered the government by blocking the nation’s news sharing on its platform. Zuckerberg’s company switched off the main news source for almost one in five Australians and disabled a raft of government Facebook pages carrying public health advice on the coronavirus, warnings from the weather bureau and even the site of a children’s hospital. Despite the meeting with Zuckerberg, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the government would be proceeding with controversial legislation that would force Facebook and Google to pay Australian publishers for news content.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Stocks and futures retreated Friday after a decline on Wall Street as investors mulled the impact of the recent climb in Treasury yields on the outlook for equities. Crude oil added to recent losses.

A gauge of global shares headed for its first weekly fall since January with Australia and Hong Kong among Asian underperformers. S&P 500 futures dipped after the index declined Thursday. A report showing U.S. initial jobless claims rose more than expected underlined the challenges for the recovery from the pandemic. Ten-year Treasury yields held an advance. The dollar edged up.

Japan’s 10-year sovereign bond yield rose to the highest in more than two years amid the global debt selloff. The pound dipped after a rally driven by optimism over the U.K. vaccine rollout. Bitcoin fell back below $52,000. Copper extended a rise to an eight-year high.

Benchmark Treasury yields at the highest in a year stirred a debate on whether a further rise might trigger a shake-out in risk assets. Recent economic data are a reminder of the fragility of the growth backdrop, with much depending on the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated the need for $1.9 trillion in pandemic-relief spending.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

The bulls defended the 6600 level yesterday though we have had a test of 6580 overnight, so that is the line on the sand for today. A break of that and we will more than likely see a slide down towards the 6500 level as the bearish 2 hour chart continues to play out. However, we are at the bottom fo the 10 day Raff channel initially this morning, with support at 6600 from that and as such we could see an initial bounce towards the 6660 resistance level before some more selling.

We have option expiry today so we will get a bit of chop at 10:10 this morning; it usually spikes up and then drops back down (but not always) so be prepared for that.

Below the 6580 level I am watching the 6560 level as support as we have S1 here and it is also a key daily level, with 6500 below that. If we do start to see these sort of levels though that is a fairly convincing break of the 25ema on the daily chart and would probably mark the end of that bullishness that saw the slightly suspect rise to 6800 at the start of the week. Probably a stop hunting/suck in retail rally that one!

Talking of bulls, they will need to get the price above the 6660 area as we have few key resistance levels here, namely the key fib for today and the 30m 200ema. That is also just above the daily pivot at 6646. Higher up the daily resistance level ties in with the cam breakout at 6688. The 2 hour chart remains bearish, and we dropped off the first test of the Hull MA at 6760 on Wednesday, and that line has now dropped to 6735 for today. We also have a red coral at 6747 so any move up to this area may well stall around here.

Meanwhile, over on the S&P the bulls are valiantly defending the 3900 level however the 2h chart has 3926 and 3937 as resistance on that for today so we may well see any bounce fizzle out around that area. If the bears were to break the overnight low at 3894 though then 3882 S1 would be seen, and a break of that gets things a lot more bearish state side. We also have 3921 200ema resistance, along with the key fib at 3925 so the bulls certainly have their work cut out. Will we get a late Friday pump on the US markets again?

Still thinking that shorting the rallies is the right play for the moment, watch that 6660 area as the main resistance for today. Good luck and have a great weekend.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

Keep up to date with new content, free sign up below

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