Quote from Nick on 17th July 2020, 12:45 pm

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 17th July 2020

European equities followed Asia’s lead in ending lower, but limited their downside to about half a percentage point thanks to upbeat US data pointing to stronger-than-forecast retail sales figures. London’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed 0.67pc lower at 6,250.69, while the FTSE 250shed 0.57pc, ending at 17,321.29.

Here's a quick recap of Thursday's events:

• Stock markets pulled back today as investors, weighing hopes for a coronavirus vaccine against fears of new waves of infections, consolidated recent gains.
• Some upbeat US data helped limit losses, pointing to stronger-than-forecast retail sales numbers published just before Wall Street's opening bell.
• The euro recovered against the dollar after the European Central Bank presented no surprises at a policy meeting.
• Earlier Thursday, Asian equities dropped as investors fretted over fresh spikes in virus infections around the world and the reimposition of lockdowns.
• Oil markets dropped after rallying more than two percent Wednesday as investors were looking to an expected pick-up in output from major producers who embarked on massive cuts this year to fight a global glut.
• European Central Bank holds rates steady and leaves bond-buying plans unchanged
• UK payrolls data shows 650,000 jobs lost between March and June
• Unemployment rate remains fairly unchanged, claimant count drops
• Retail and hospitality hardest-hit as job vacancies plunge
• Morgan Stanley and Bank of America both beat revenue estimates, continuing strong run of Wall Street results
• Chinese economy returns to growth, but shares suffer worst drop since February

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FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Technology shares pushed U.S. stocks lower for the first time in three days after investors rotated out of this year’s top performers. Treasuries gained with American initial jobless claims posting their smallest weekly decline since March. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s 0.7% decline was among the largest of major U.S. benchmarks, with Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc. leading the losses. The information technology was the biggest decliner in the S&P 500, which had gained more than 2% in the past two days. Netflix Inc. slumped in late trading after the streaming service reported fewer subscriber additions than forecast. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 extended losses after the cash market close, with the contracts down 1.4% as of 4:12 p.m. in New York.

We have remained below that 6320 resistance level from Wednesday and appear to remain on track for a test of the 6200 daily support level. We have option expiry today so we may well see a short lived spike up to the 6300 resistance area at 10:10 this morning, and bare that volatility around that time in mind. 6300 is presenting as decent resistance this morning with the key fib and R1 both at this level and as such a short here looks to be worth a go.

With yesterday's fairly lacklustre performance the 2 hour is bearish again with resistance at 6282 to start with today. The daily chart remains bullish though and the 25ema at 6199 today still looks like it will offer decent support. The S&P defended the 3200 level, and we still have 3170 as the main key support level that the bulls will want to defend. This is a retest of the previous resistance and if it holds could well act a spring board for a push past the 3230 resistance, looking for a rise to 3266 and higher.

If the bears were to break below the 6200 level then S3 is at 6152 and would probably be where they take it initially. We also have the green daily coral at 6158 so in theory this level should see a decent reaction if we were to get that low. For the moment I am thinking that 6200 is decent support though.

For the bulls, if they break above the 6300 level then the 6330 Wednesday high would be next up, then a retest of the Raff channels - 6395 for the 20 day, and then 6418 for the 10 day channel. For the moment the 1 day channel seems to be offering good support and resistance so worth keeping an eye on these levels.

So looking at a rise and dip and the 6200 and 6300 levels as the main ones for today. Have a good day and a great weekend.

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